The 2024 Playoff Chase Thread
- Thread starter Tetsujin
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I was about to write that one of the starting 5 is playing, Mann, but somehow he is not starting in the 2nd half. Also Zubac and Powell probably won't enter the game. So in Hyland we trust (has 30 already).
Suns shot 37 3s and 23 2p attempts so far. Feels like deja vu, but they are not playing the Thunder unfortunately.
Suns shot 37 3s and 23 2p attempts so far. Feels like deja vu, but they are not playing the Thunder unfortunately.
They have to lose both their next matches hosting Jazz and Rockets (that don't fight for anything), while Mavs have to beat the Pistons in Dallas and last match at Oklahoma. I guess it won't happen cause LAC will beat UTA probably having some starters in the first half and resting them later in the second if they have a comfortable lead.
With injuries and general level of inconsistency , getting out of the Play-ins doesn't look in the cards this year. Other teams are playing better, and the Kings are not in that group. Off-season has some fairly significant questions for the organization. . Tough to watch a fade out late in the regular season going into the post-season
The way things go now is that the top 6 seeds in the conference get automatic playoff spots, and the 7-10 teams in the conference fight it out for the last two playoffs spots in "play-in" games.
There are three play-in games.
Game 1 is between the 7-8 teams - the winner of that game gets the 7 seed in the playoffs.
Game 2 is between the 9-10 teams - the loser of that game is eliminated.
Finally, the last game is between the loser of Game 1 and the winner of Game 2. The winner of this game gets the 8 seed in the playoffs.
The Kings right now are guaranteed to finish somewhere between #6 and #10. So, as of right now, they do not have a playoff spot guaranteed, but they DO have at least a "play-in" spot guaranteed. If the Kings were to get to #6, that would allow them to avoid the play-in games, but that seems very unlikely right now. It is most likely that the Kings will be in the play-in and have to win one - or perhaps two - games to get into the playoffs.
There are three play-in games.
Game 1 is between the 7-8 teams - the winner of that game gets the 7 seed in the playoffs.
Game 2 is between the 9-10 teams - the loser of that game is eliminated.
Finally, the last game is between the loser of Game 1 and the winner of Game 2. The winner of this game gets the 8 seed in the playoffs.
The Kings right now are guaranteed to finish somewhere between #6 and #10. So, as of right now, they do not have a playoff spot guaranteed, but they DO have at least a "play-in" spot guaranteed. If the Kings were to get to #6, that would allow them to avoid the play-in games, but that seems very unlikely right now. It is most likely that the Kings will be in the play-in and have to win one - or perhaps two - games to get into the playoffs.
Not exactly. The Kings will need to beat New Orleans Thursday night and Phoenix Friday night to pull ahead of Phoenix in the standings--the very two teams directly ahead of them in the table. The only saving grace is that both games, as well as the last one against Portland on Sunday night, are at home.
I am not betting my tax refund on Sacramento sweeping all three, but you never know with this team. Who would have expected Keon Ellis to score 26 points on 8-15 shooting from deep on Tuesday night?
I am not betting my tax refund on Sacramento sweeping all three, but you never know with this team. Who would have expected Keon Ellis to score 26 points on 8-15 shooting from deep on Tuesday night?
yes yes , i hope we will finally beat the Pells this season ...
Funniest thing is that we have reall chances for the 6th spot ... Pells are having 3 very hard games and loosing all 3 of them isnt that ''fantastic'' and with Suns we keep all the aces ...
Of course loosing both games and ending 9th isnt less possible ...
P.S.
Winnig both first games and loosing in the ''easiest'' one at the end , missing by one game the 6th spot isn't out of the season stoty
)
Funniest thing is that we have reall chances for the 6th spot ... Pells are having 3 very hard games and loosing all 3 of them isnt that ''fantastic'' and with Suns we keep all the aces ...
Of course loosing both games and ending 9th isnt less possible ...
P.S.
Winnig both first games and loosing in the ''easiest'' one at the end , missing by one game the 6th spot isn't out of the season stoty
)Thanks to the Clippers for resting all their starters last night... The Suns looked really ripe for the taking last night and are not playing good basketball right now, but neither are the Kings. Still, last night's results cleared up a few things.
6th Seed
The Kings can still clinch the 6 seed by winning out (3-0) AND having the Pellies lose out (0-3).
The Kings, at 48 wins, would be ahead of the Pellies, Lakers, and Warriors in this situation, and win the tiebreaker with Phoenix. If the Kings can somehow win tonight, this isn't an entirely impossible scenario since the Pellis still have two tough games @GSW and vs. LAL, who both need to win.
7th Seed
Kings can clinch the 7 seed by:
- Going 3-0
OR
- Going 2-1 with a win against Phoenix AND Phoenix loses @ Minnesota
The good news about the Minnesota game is that Minnesota will likely have a lot to play for in the last game of the season. So obviously, while beating the Pellies tonight would really help clinch the 7 seed, a loss tonight does not entirely doom the chances at the 7 seed.
8th Seed
Kings can clinch the 8 seed by:
- winning any two games
OR
- winning any one game AND the Lakers lose any one game AND the Warriors lose any one game
If the Kings only win one game, the chances of finishing top 8 get more difficult. The Warriors lone difficult game is a home game with the Pellies (other games are @Portland and vs. Utah) and the Lakers only tough game is @ Pellies (other game is @ Memphis). So if we can't win two games, we are likely "all in" on the Pellies beating both the Warriors and Lakers.
9th Seed
Kings can "clinch" the 9th seed by:
- winning any one game AND Lakers losing any one game
OR
- winning any one game AND Warriors losing any one game
10th Seed
Kings end up as the 10 seed by:
- winning zero games
OR
- winning 1 game AND Lakers win out AND Warriors win out
6th Seed
The Kings can still clinch the 6 seed by winning out (3-0) AND having the Pellies lose out (0-3).
The Kings, at 48 wins, would be ahead of the Pellies, Lakers, and Warriors in this situation, and win the tiebreaker with Phoenix. If the Kings can somehow win tonight, this isn't an entirely impossible scenario since the Pellis still have two tough games @GSW and vs. LAL, who both need to win.
7th Seed
Kings can clinch the 7 seed by:
- Going 3-0
OR
- Going 2-1 with a win against Phoenix AND Phoenix loses @ Minnesota
The good news about the Minnesota game is that Minnesota will likely have a lot to play for in the last game of the season. So obviously, while beating the Pellies tonight would really help clinch the 7 seed, a loss tonight does not entirely doom the chances at the 7 seed.
8th Seed
Kings can clinch the 8 seed by:
- winning any two games
OR
- winning any one game AND the Lakers lose any one game AND the Warriors lose any one game
If the Kings only win one game, the chances of finishing top 8 get more difficult. The Warriors lone difficult game is a home game with the Pellies (other games are @Portland and vs. Utah) and the Lakers only tough game is @ Pellies (other game is @ Memphis). So if we can't win two games, we are likely "all in" on the Pellies beating both the Warriors and Lakers.
9th Seed
Kings can "clinch" the 9th seed by:
- winning any one game AND Lakers losing any one game
OR
- winning any one game AND Warriors losing any one game
10th Seed
Kings end up as the 10 seed by:
- winning zero games
OR
- winning 1 game AND Lakers win out AND Warriors win out
Or any of the literally 10-12 games we have absolutely frittered away. By my off the cuff count, I can come up with 17 losses that are VERY tough to swallow, and we should have won at least 10 or 12 of these.
1) 4 losses to absolutely awful teams (Portland, Charlotte, Washington, Detroit),
2) 3 inexplicable late game collapses (vs. Bulls, @Bucks, and @Suns),
3) 2 losses to teams resting most key guys (Indiana and Miami),
4) 3 beatdowns by the Rockets, and
5) 5 blown 15-20 point leads against playoff teams (@NY, @ OKC, vs. Dallas, IST game vs. New Orleans, @ Denver)
The first 3 categories are 9 games we absolutely should have won. Or gone 8-1 or 7-2 at the very worst. There is no reason to lose any of those games, much less go 0-9.
The Rockets games are harder because 2 were without Fox and the last one they were playing better, but 0-3???? Should have won at least 1.
And yeah, the last category is against good playoff teams, and good teams comeback all the time, but 5 additional games where we blew 15 point leads??? We should have won at least 2 of those.
So don't cry about having two tougher games against the Suns and Pellies because of the IST. This was absolutely in our hands and we frittered it away. You go 11-6 in those 17 games (instead of 0-17) and you are tied for first in the West. Go 10-7 and you are tied for second. Maybe in those cases we can talk about how unfair the extra two games against the Suns and Pellies were, and how they are hurting our chances at the #1 seed.
Heck, you go 7-10 and you are comfortably in 4th with home court advantage and 52 wins. The Kings have no one to blame but themselves for their predicament.
1) 4 losses to absolutely awful teams (Portland, Charlotte, Washington, Detroit),
2) 3 inexplicable late game collapses (vs. Bulls, @Bucks, and @Suns),
3) 2 losses to teams resting most key guys (Indiana and Miami),
4) 3 beatdowns by the Rockets, and
5) 5 blown 15-20 point leads against playoff teams (@NY, @ OKC, vs. Dallas, IST game vs. New Orleans, @ Denver)
The first 3 categories are 9 games we absolutely should have won. Or gone 8-1 or 7-2 at the very worst. There is no reason to lose any of those games, much less go 0-9.
The Rockets games are harder because 2 were without Fox and the last one they were playing better, but 0-3???? Should have won at least 1.
And yeah, the last category is against good playoff teams, and good teams comeback all the time, but 5 additional games where we blew 15 point leads??? We should have won at least 2 of those.
So don't cry about having two tougher games against the Suns and Pellies because of the IST. This was absolutely in our hands and we frittered it away. You go 11-6 in those 17 games (instead of 0-17) and you are tied for first in the West. Go 10-7 and you are tied for second. Maybe in those cases we can talk about how unfair the extra two games against the Suns and Pellies were, and how they are hurting our chances at the #1 seed.
Heck, you go 7-10 and you are comfortably in 4th with home court advantage and 52 wins. The Kings have no one to blame but themselves for their predicament.
I feel similar, but we also beat teams that we maybe shouldn't have and got to face teams while key players were out and beat them. I think we very likely should have 4-5 more wins now, not 10-11. Those random bad games happen to every team (Sans 73 win Warriors, 72 win Bulls, etc.) Hell even the Celtics had some bad losses this year.
This is pretty much where I am as well. Expecting at least a 10 game improvement is stretching it a bit. Also, expecting a 10 game improvement is pretty much the same as saying that you expected this season's team to pretty much have the same level of success as last season's team, but with the added advantage of being an "experienced team" that ultimately allows them to win some of the games that they lost last season. But, the reality of last season's team was, and always has been, that we were one of the healthiest teams in the entire league, if not the healthiest team. We didn't have the "luxury" of needing to tweak our lineup throughout the season due to a key injury as much as we've had this season. That simple fact alone should be enough to justify either having the exact same record as last season's team, finishing a few wins below last season's team (as will most likely be the case), or finishing with 3-5 more wins than last season's team. Expecting 10+ win differential is asking for a lot. Because, even if we performed at or above the same level as last season's team, we probably still end up losing some of those games that you have expected us to win.
I think we are probably 3 games below where we should be. We have come back from several 15 plus point deficits to win as well. This year has been tough be we are still absolutely a better team than we were last season. Every single team in the west has gotten better and in some cases way better than they were last year with the exception of Memphis and Portland. Denver is basically the same.
And guess what, on paper every team including Portland and Memphis will be better next season. Yay, we decided to turn around the franchise in the single most competitive era for the west ever! Imagine if the Spurs trade for Trae Young. Imagine Memphis with a starting lineup of Ja, Bane, GG, JJJ and Clingan with Marcus smart as sixth man. Imagine Houston with another year of seasoning and a trade for a star they will try to make. Maybe the Warriors fall off some if they don’t bring back Klay and Dray causes more drama. Maybe Lebron leaves. Maybe PG signs with the Sixers. Other than that all the rest of the teams are built to be good for years to come. We are going to have very good teams miss the play-in. Great for the sport but rough on fans of individual teams.
And guess what, on paper every team including Portland and Memphis will be better next season. Yay, we decided to turn around the franchise in the single most competitive era for the west ever! Imagine if the Spurs trade for Trae Young. Imagine Memphis with a starting lineup of Ja, Bane, GG, JJJ and Clingan with Marcus smart as sixth man. Imagine Houston with another year of seasoning and a trade for a star they will try to make. Maybe the Warriors fall off some if they don’t bring back Klay and Dray causes more drama. Maybe Lebron leaves. Maybe PG signs with the Sixers. Other than that all the rest of the teams are built to be good for years to come. We are going to have very good teams miss the play-in. Great for the sport but rough on fans of individual teams.
Statistically speaking we are more or less the same as last year but that whole expectations thing changed everything.
Also the fact that improving our defense negatively impacted our offense for much of the season and Fox's improved 3 point shooting has largely failed him in clutch time where he was so golden last year. Domas has also been more of the alpha this year, possibly emboldened by the double-double streak. The streak may have become more important than winning occasionally - last year it was Fox being Mr. Clutch which actually helps win games. Fishing for a dub-dub or triple-dub late in games is of more questionable value. The last 2 weeks it was happening and forced.
and of course the injuries to Huerter and Monk.
So many good things that are derailed by the little things. But again hopefully in the grand scheme of things this is a speed bump.
Also the fact that improving our defense negatively impacted our offense for much of the season and Fox's improved 3 point shooting has largely failed him in clutch time where he was so golden last year. Domas has also been more of the alpha this year, possibly emboldened by the double-double streak. The streak may have become more important than winning occasionally - last year it was Fox being Mr. Clutch which actually helps win games. Fishing for a dub-dub or triple-dub late in games is of more questionable value. The last 2 weeks it was happening and forced.
and of course the injuries to Huerter and Monk.
So many good things that are derailed by the little things. But again hopefully in the grand scheme of things this is a speed bump.