Below are the odds of getting the 1st pick in the 2018 and 2019 draft.
I added a linear trendline from 0-10, where 10 is the quality of a team with the best record and 0.333 is the quality with the worst record. “Quality” here is a subjective multivariable summation of things like development of players, reputation, culture, fan happiness, team revenue, etc. Ideally, the quality line predicts your success of winning a championship.
If you take a Y-value (choose either Y axis) on the lotto line and add it to the corresponding Y-value on the quality line, then you see a huge difference in where’d you prefer to be.
For ’18 it’s the worst record because the line is exponential. You really don’t want to be 7-9th seed. This has the worst total Y value sum.
In ’19 it's mostly linear and doesn’t really matter unless you go below 3rd seed.
With the current system, you should tank at all costs and don’t mess around or you will fall into the dreadful 7-10th seed area. Next year however, only tank if you are the 4th or 5th seed where there is a small increase in the slope of the line.
You can choose to tank or not next year, but it’s no longer a necessary strategy.
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