Let's talk about Rajon Rondo

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hrdboild

Moloch in whom I dream Angels!
Staff member
#1
So a year ago we were supposedly working furiously to get Rondo from Boston. At the time he was still working back from injury. He played 30 games in the second half of last season and there were some areas of concern. Mainly, his shooting percentage was all the way down to 40% (career average 47%) and his steals were way down from his career average of 1.8 to 1.3 per game. For a player who doesn't help you out with three point shooting, his defense and his overall offensive efficiency have been his calling cards and they just weren't there yet. Under those circumstances it didn't make sense to give up the kind of assets to acquire him that Boston wanted. Not with a one year deal and free agency looming.

Fast forward to now and he just wrapped up what has to be one of this season's most disappointing performances. He was in the conversation for top 5 PG after his playoff heroics in 2012. At the time he'd just turned 26 and was one of the rising stars of the league. This year he struggled with Dallas and was a non-factor in the first 2 games of their playoff series. Now he's done for the year with another injury. He just turned 29. He's two years removed from the last year in which he shot an acceptable percentage from the field and it's verifiable fact that his assist numbers were artificially inflated to some extent by Boston scorekeepers. He's not going to get a max deal. He didn't prove that he could stay healthy or play at an All-Star level this year.

So... are we at all interested? Is there a price point at which we become interested? Does he have some intangible veteran experience that would benefit us even if his defense is slipping and his underrated scoring ability is now drastically diminished by injury? Or does his reputation as a hothead make him a poor mix with Demarcus? There's a very real chance that he never again has a playoff performance that equals what he did as a 25 year old in Boston. Which is pretty sad, but not uncommon in the NBA. Anyone who signs him now isn't solidifying their standing as a playoff contender, they're taking a considerable risk on an injured player potentially bouncing back at age 29.

I'd been assuming that Rondo to the Lakers was a lock so I hadn't thought much about the possibility of signing him this year, but looking at how bad that team was, with no guarantee that Kobe can ever return to form, will Rondo even want to commit long-term with a team that looks nowhere near playoff contention right now? Maybe not. If his price point comes down or he wants to sign a 1 year make good deal and delay the big splash for next year's salary cap bonanza, he might be a consideration for us.

Your thoughts?
 
#4
Someone will still pay him more than he deserve, but that's not even the main problem. Rondo just doesn't fit: must have the ball in his hands most of the time to be effective. It's not because he's that good, but he's just completely useless off the ball. Rondo has unrealistic expectations of what his role should be, and that drives his demands. He will have to settle for best offer available, but expectations of on-court presence will only be corrected after further struggles.
 
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#10
He doesn't fit our needs / weaknesses. We'd have a horrible shooting back court, which would give DMC no space to work in the post ... bad move

Yet, we know that our front office liked him, they could be hoping to buy low thinking he's another year removed from the ACL and allowed to run the offense, and his value has slipped to the point that he's in the Kings price range. I'd wager the Kings will kick the tires and will try to jump if his price falls and/or he sits on the market like Ellis did a few years back with the Mavs. I think we'll be fine because somebody will pay him and he doesn't want to play here, but I would not be shocked to see we're talking to his people for several weeks in July.

The narrative for folks that hope our front office will work well is that: the scouts and Bratz who evaluated Landry, Ben, and Nik and rookie front office men Divac and Karl will find the players we want and cap and then contract guy PDA will figure out what is an appropriate number to pay those players and manage the cap ... well, 3 months ago PDA was prepared to trade assets to get Rondo so we could give him a 5 year max this summer. Also the same guy that wanted to take on Josh Smith's super toxic contract. PDA's pursuit of Rondo is another black mark on his resume.
 
#11
I've been a Rondo fan for years and was super eager to get him last year, but watching him this season... Whatever he had in Boston that spirit that never say die and hound you all day defense... Is long gone. Whether it is the result of injury or attitude, he is now such a huge risk that he isn't worth it. He can single handedly ruin a team and their chemistry.
 

hrdboild

Moloch in whom I dream Angels!
Staff member
#14
He doesn't fit our needs / weaknesses. We'd have a horrible shooting back court, which would give DMC no space to work in the post ... bad move

Yet, we know that our front office liked him, they could be hoping to buy low thinking he's another year removed from the ACL and allowed to run the offense, and his value has slipped to the point that he's in the Kings price range. I'd wager the Kings will kick the tires and will try to jump if his price falls and/or he sits on the market like Ellis did a few years back with the Mavs. I think we'll be fine because somebody will pay him and he doesn't want to play here, but I would not be shocked to see we're talking to his people for several weeks in July.

The narrative for folks that hope our front office will work well is that: the scouts and Bratz who evaluated Landry, Ben, and Nik and rookie front office men Divac and Karl will find the players we want and cap and then contract guy PDA will figure out what is an appropriate number to pay those players and manage the cap ... well, 3 months ago PDA was prepared to trade assets to get Rondo so we could give him a 5 year max this summer. Also the same guy that wanted to take on Josh Smith's super toxic contract. PDA's pursuit of Rondo is another black mark on his resume.
Two things to address here...

Firstly, I don't know why people still have this idea that Ben McLemore is a horrible shooter. He averaged 42% from three for the first third of the season. January is the only month that she shot less than 35% from three and his overall percentage on the season was 36%. Those are not terrible numbers at all. It's reasonable I think to expect consistency to come with time and experience. Darren Collison was one of the best shooters in the league at his position this year and Nik Stauskas shot 42% from three after the All Star break. So if the proposed guard rotation would be Rondo/Mclemore followed by Collison/Stauskas you have three good shooters and only one non-shooter in your backcourt.

Secondly, PDA has done a lot of things wrong, I think we can all agree on that. Considering and ultimately passing on trades for Rondo and Smith are not black marks on his resume. If I go to look at a used car and see some body damage that wasn't described over the phone and there's a knock in the engine that concerns me I tell the owner thanks but no thanks. After the fact when the car breaks down you don't tell me I was a fool for even looking at it in the first place. Passing on the Smith and Rondo trades was a good decision was it not? The black marks are the decisions that negatively impacted the franchise.
 

hrdboild

Moloch in whom I dream Angels!
Staff member
#15
My initial rundown was fairly reasonable I think. I pointed out all the reasons why it would be a bad idea and closed with the conclusion that "If his price point comes down or he wants to sign a 1 year make good deal and delay the big splash for next year's salary cap bonanza, he might be a consideration for us." That's as far as I was willing to go here... maybe he's a consideration for us if he comes cheaper than expected and wants a shorter deal which would mitigate the risk involved.

After reading a few knee-jerk overreactions though to a simple request for a conversation, now I'm actually seeing the other side of the coin -- and that's the scenario where Rondo struggled to re-integrate his game into a demolished Boston roster with a new coach and zero legit scoring threats to pass to and still averaged nearly a triple double for 22 games. Then he came to a seriously flawed Dallas team who's star player is a shell of his former self. Monta Ellis averaged a preposterous 17 shots per game this year and that included 3.5 shots per game from three which he hit at a remarkable rate of 28%. What Dallas should have done was acquire a dedicated shooter to play next to ball-hog Ellis (usage rate 28%). Pairing him with Rondo was a terrible idea from the beginning. I also see a notorious control-freak of a coach who clashed with Darren Collison for many of the same reasons -- Carlisle wants to micro-manage the offense and that takes your point guard's head out of the game and puts it on the sideline instead. That would not be a problem with George Karl.

For signing Rondo to work out that would mean that Rondo bounces back playing for a coach who allows him the same offensive freedom he had in Boston. Rondo calls the plays and he gets good looks for Cousins, Gay, and McLemore. His failure in Dallas and a cooling market in the off-season enlarges the chip on his shoulder to 2012 playoff proportions and he attacks other PGs with the same intensity that once spurred him to 4 straight All-Defense selections. His need-to-win intensity and attention to detail on the court make him an instant favorite with Demarcus. Ben thrives alongside a PG who can reward his ability to move off the ball. Some people might be concerned that a ball dominant guard is a poor fit next to Cousins' emerging point-Center potential, but it might interest you to know that Rondo actually has a lower career usage rate than Darren Collison. It might also interest you to know that Rondo's career assist percentage is just 0.4% lower than Steve Nash and only three players (Stockton, Paul, Nash) have had a higher assist percentage than the 52.5% he averaged in the 2011-2012 season.

I already acknowledged the substantial risk involved -- but I also wanted to acknowledge that Rondo was not just good in the 2011-2012 season, he was great. Since then he's had two seasons derailed by injury and a third mediocre season derailed by all of the factors I listed above. He does have a track record of All-Star level play dating right up to 2013. Maybe you believe he's done at 29. Certainly that has happened before (Mike Bibby). But there's also a decent chance this is a bump in the road and he follows in the footsteps of other elite floor generals like Stockton, Nash, and Kidd and plays well into his late 30s. Two hot headed personalities like Rajon Rondo and Demarcus Cousins on the same team does have a lot of boom or bust potential, but remember that George Karl led a Seattle team featuring similarly volatile personalities Gary Payton and Shawn Kemp to the Finals in 1996.
 
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#17
I find it hard to believe that such a playoff-tested vet like Rondo just suddenly lost the will AND ability to play.
Yes, there's been injuries, but motivation affects a player's game more than physical.

If the Kings talked with Rondo, and if he is recovered from those injuries and IF (that's a big if) he got across to them that he wants to play here and turn around the team with Demarcus and has reasonable explanations for what's happened this past year (especially his loss of defense).... I'd consider taking a risk with a MLE for him (short contract).
That's only if Demarcus and Rudy like the idea of playing with him.

So it's a longshot, to be sure.
But I'd much rather give him a shot than someone with little upside we have already seen fail for ~ 2 seasons (DWill).
 

funkykingston

Super Moderator
Staff member
#18
Forget Rondo's attitude in Dallas, his obvious decline in defensive effort, the likelihood that he'll sign with the Lakers and his age, the salary he'll command just based on his past exploits and his injury history.

Solely looking at him as a player and what he brings to the table I flat out don't see a fit.

He's a ball dominant guard with no outside shot when the Kings coach is a huge advocate of ball movement and outside shooting. And unless the Kings were to sign and start a stretch four on the Ryan Anderson, Dirk, Peja level or move Gay permanently to the PF and get a shooter at SF you're looking at a lineup with a worse ability to stretch the floor and create spacing than this year's team. And for all the early success under Malone, the big weakness still was that the team lacked spacing.

I've always liked Rondo as a player. When Boston was winning I even liked his attitude - it's that edge that helped him be a great PG and a great defender (well that and his intelligence and ridiculous wingspan and hand size) but at this point I think he's going to be a poor return on investment for whoever signs him. And he'd be an awful fit for the Kings.
 

Bricklayer

Don't Make Me Use The Bat
#19
He's a ball dominant guard with no outside shot when the Kings coach is a huge advocate of ball movement and outside shooting.
I have mentioned this before however: Goerge Karl, oddly, has had a lot of pure pass PGs play for him over the years in featured roles. Going back to McMillan and a young Payton (before he became a mega chucker), Miller for years etc. George was a former PG himself, and seems to like the position. Now for me the name that I could see juicing his offense while fitting that role was actually Rubio. Rondo is small, and George would have even less use than Carlile did for his preference for actually controlling tempo and playing halfcourt. But nonetheless, in a league full of PG gunners, there are only a handful of high assist type Karl PGs out there. Despite everything Rondo is one. I'm not an advocate, but it wouldn't shock me if we tried (Rondo's big market ego and the Lakers though will probably make any such try moot).
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
#20
I have never been a big Rondo fan. I've always thought he was partially a product of his inviorment. Take away Garnett, Allen and Pierce, and how good would he be. Now, with apparent erosion of his skills, I like him even less. Rondo has always be a bit of a head case. Easy to put up with when the team is playing at a high level, but difficult, when everything starts to go to hell in a handbasket. Dallas was a team that to some extent was over achieving. Enter Rondo, and everything falls apart. The team chemistry went down the toilet. Carlisle can't wait to be rid of him. Monta Ellis can't stand him. It turned out to be one of those things that looked good on paper, but was a disaster on the court.

So no, I don't want him on the team. We have enough problems without going out and signing another one.
 
#21
Two things to address here...

Firstly, I don't know why people still have this idea that Ben McLemore is a horrible shooter. He averaged 42% from three for the first third of the season. January is the only month that she shot less than 35% from three and his overall percentage on the season was 36%. Those are not terrible numbers at all. It's reasonable I think to expect consistency to come with time and experience. Darren Collison was one of the best shooters in the league at his position this year and Nik Stauskas shot 42% from three after the All Star break. So if the proposed guard rotation would be Rondo/Mclemore followed by Collison/Stauskas you have three good shooters and only one non-shooter in your backcourt.


Secondly, PDA has done a lot of things wrong, I think we can all agree on that. Considering and ultimately passing on trades for Rondo and Smith are not black marks on his resume. If I go to look at a used car and see some body damage that wasn't described over the phone and there's a knock in the engine that concerns me I tell the owner thanks but no thanks. After the fact when the car breaks down you don't tell me I was a fool for even looking at it in the first place. Passing on the Smith and Rondo trades was a good decision was it not? The black marks are the decisions that negatively impacted the franchise.
I'm not saying Ben is a horrible shooter. I'm also not looking at Ben's shooting or Nik's level of play in a vacuum. I'm saying that: if we spend our money on Rondo we'd probably be rolling out Rondo; Ben/Nik; Gay; some PF; and DMC. At which point, it's not a question of whether our shooting guard shot a decent percentage for part of a season, month or even a whole game. Whenever our mediocre young shooting guards (by NBA starter standards) weren't making the defense regularly pay from 3, our offense could barely function because everybody except the man guarding Gay would be in the paint. There would be coaches saying, "Well, we don't normally run zone, but tonight it's Sacramento so tonight is the night to try it."

Your hypo doesn't equate on the second. Upon first looking at car you had not previously seen, you correctly identified the problem with the car and didn't bid. In the hypo, you had both a keen eye for the issues and a good sense of the market after identifying the relevant facts.

PDA was well aware of Josh Smith, his issues, and his toxic contract. PDA made an offer for that contract. A bid that didn't give up many good players, but sacrificed a ton of future cap space to acquire a contract so toxic that the Pistons ate the entire amount just a few months later. PDA was also attempting to trade for Rondo so the Kings could offer him the 5th year max contract that other teams could not. I think it's very same to assume that, if Rondo hadn't made it clear that he wasn't going to stay in Sacramento, the Kings discussions for Rondo would have continued. PDA's plan was deeply flawed because most teams would have said/will say that a 5 year Rondo max is a horrible contract. Because Rondo and Josh Smith are friends, it appears PDA may have been trying to get Smith to help the team resign Rondo, thereby providing us with a long term core of Rondo, Gay, Smith, and DMC.

We didn't get there because we didn't offer enough to kill our future with that team. But PDA made offers.

So it's not like immediately making no bid on a lemon car. It's like Tom Hanks in Money Pit offering 130% of market for the money pit house and the seller passing on the offer. Hank's bid did not negatively impact his wallet, but it's a black mark on his ability to see the problems; know the market; or both. That matters for PDA because he's supposed to be Vlade / Karl's cap, numbers, contracts guy. I think PDA has got an ok eye for talent, but his weakness is what to pay guys and how to manage his cap.
 
#22
I also wanted to acknowledge that Rondo was not just good in the 2011-2012 season, he was great.
He could never shoot. Since then, he's stopped driving because: (A) as a 29 year old coming off an ACL injury, there is very little over the past two years that indicate that he physically capable of regularly beating his man to get into the paint; and/or (B) even if he can, he doesn't want to drive because he no longer makes even half his free throws. Even if he got his first step back at 30, he doesn't want to drive regularly because he doesn't want to miss free throws (like Nick Anderson and Antoine Walker before him).

He's certainly no longer elite on defense.

Over the past two years, other than Connect 4, what is Rondo very good at? He's a great passer, but if nobody is guarding him and he's just above average on defense he's just OK and very odd shaped piece to put into your puzzle. If he wants to take 28 over 3 with no player opt out and team option on the third year in Sacramento, fine take a flyer. Otherwise, no shot.

He's not taking a 1 year deal and he's not coming here anyhow ... so whatever.
 

Capt. Factorial

trifolium contra tempestatem subrigere certum est
Staff member
#23
It's like Tom Hanks in Money Pit offering 130% of market for the money pit house and the seller passing on the offer. Hank's bid did not negatively impact his wallet, but it's a black mark on his ability to see the problems; know the market; or both.
I think this analogy really overstates the extent of our actual knowledge. We've got very strong indications (via rumor) that PDA made an attempt to go after both Smith and Rondo. However, we don't know how much he offered and we certainly don't know that he offered over market for these damaged goods. However "untouchable" Ainge made Rondo sound in his media comments, he ended up netting Boston basically Jae Crowder and a first-round pick in the 20s. That's a pretty low market. As for Josh Smith, he netted the Pistons "lighting $40M on fire". That's an incredibly low market. It's certainly possible that we made over-market offers for these guys, but given that both teams actually ended up parting with them in December, it's really hard to imagine that we did - otherwise our offers would have been accepted, particularly with Josh Smith.
In the Smith case, we were probably trying to dump the Landry contract and get back a draft pick to take him.

Anyway, the point is that the claim that we offered over market is 1) not backed by any known facts and 2) extremely unlikely given the known facts.

As far as capology goes, if one assumes that a Cousins-Rudy-Smith core is the basis for a winner (and your argument went to cap and not talent), this core would actually be pretty economically feasible only one year out. In 2016 those three guys would have cost about $43M on an $89M cap, and in 2017 they would cost $45M on a $108M cap. If you can spend less than half of your cap on your core three players and have that core three be a competitive core, then you have won capology.
 

gunks

Hall of Famer
#24
Nope.

I know the FO has had a hard on for him for a minute though (just like they had a hard on for J-Smoove and any other "big name" player that would make a splash, regardless of fit)...But....Nope.

Again, this just makes me pissed off about last years draft. Rondoesque PG right there for the taking (Payton), and we go out and get Nik on the stupid assumption that a rookie shooter will be NBA ready...Cause, you know, that totally worked with Jimmer.


Even if Rondo started putting up Celtic stats (which I think he is still capable of doing) I dont want him here. He has just proven to be a MAJOR cancer in the locker room. That is the last thing we need.
 
#25
It's not what we were giving up, it's what we were going to pay them.

For Smith there is a report on what we offered for Smith, so it's not just rumor. We were prepared to pay Smith 40 million dollars to play basketball for us. Anybody willing to take on one of the top 5 worst contracts in the league is paying more than market. We also know what other teams bid on Smith in a (somewhat restricted) free agent after he was cut. I don't think it's up for reasonable debate that paying Smith on his Pistons contract was over market.

We kicked the idea to trade for Rondo. Totally regardless of what we gave up, the plan was to offer him a 5 year max and hope the extra year would keep him here instead of taking a 4 year max from the Lakers and/or Knicks. That was almost without a doubt the plan. Otherwise, why would the Kings trade for an impending free agent who was (at that time) expected to get at least one max offer? Are you claiming that we don't now know that a five year mix is over what Rondo should be properly paid (properly paid, not whatever one or two teams are dumb enough to pay him? I don't think that's right. 29 teams (probably not Dallas for any number, have a number in mind for what they would be willing to pay Rondo even if they won't make him an offer.) For most teams, I assure you that number is not a 4 year max and certainly not a 5 year max.

I will disagree that Rondo, Rudy, Smith, and DMC is economically feasible going forward as a core... that team is a total turd. The notion that foursome would be a "competitive core" is ridiculous.

I'm not mad a you. I just detest this type argument. When there is good news / no matter how illogical, the smallest quote from a story will be quoted as gospel. But if it's a bad or inconvenient fact, they "we really can't say for not whether it happened."
 
#26
This is also good teams don't leak everything. The Kings are among the leakiest teams in the league. Sometimes you get credit for leaking everything. It was reported that PDA liked Tony Snell, so PDA gets credit for me when Snell plays well. When he tried to acquire Smith and Rondo, that also goes on your record.

If you don't like that, work for an organization that isn't to compelled to tell everybody everything they are doing / thinking.
 

rainmaker

Hall of Famer
#27
Again, this just makes me pissed off about last years draft. Rondoesque PG right there for the taking (Payton), and we go out and get Nik on the stupid assumption that a rookie shooter will be NBA ready...Cause, you know, that totally worked with Jimmer.
TBH, I wish there would stop the comparisons of Nik to Jimmer. The only similarities between the two is they were very good shooters in college and are both white. Beyond that, Nik has a helluva lot more tools to work with and with Jimmer shooting 18% from 3 this year, you can't even say he's a shooter at the NBA level. He's more of a mason building a house out of bricks.

Our issue was more using back to back picks on SGs who need time to develop.

With all that being said, if Midiay were to be available when we pick I'd have to think long and hard about taking him even though he too would need time to develop and I say that because unlike many here, I simply don't like DC all that much nor do I like the idea of getting Lawson.
 

hrdboild

Moloch in whom I dream Angels!
Staff member
#28
I'm not saying Ben is a horrible shooter. I'm also not looking at Ben's shooting or Nik's level of play in a vacuum. I'm saying that: if we spend our money on Rondo we'd probably be rolling out Rondo; Ben/Nik; Gay; some PF; and DMC. At which point, it's not a question of whether our shooting guard shot a decent percentage for part of a season, month or even a whole game. Whenever our mediocre young shooting guards (by NBA starter standards) weren't making the defense regularly pay from 3, our offense could barely function because everybody except the man guarding Gay would be in the paint. There would be coaches saying, "Well, we don't normally run zone, but tonight it's Sacramento so tonight is the night to try it."
I think this is just a communication issue then because I was responding to your statement that we would have a "horrible shooting backcourt". To me "backcourt" has always meant PG and SG and I wouldn't characterize a guard rotation that includes 3 good to great shooters and one non-shooter as horrible. What we had most of this year is Collison and McLemore in the starting lineup (Collison struggled with his shot at the start of the year but finished strong, McLemore started out on fire and then cooled considerably) followed by Sessions and Stauskas (neither of which could hit the broadside of a barn before the All-Star break). When our starters came out, the bench was dreadful. At any given time we usually only had one guy out of four who was shooting well this year. With Collison moving to the bench and Stauskas hopefully improving his consistency, that shouldn't be an issue anymore. Or you could trade Stauskas and sign a dedicated veteran shooter to backup Ben. Either way that guard rotation alone isn't horrible or even below average from a shooting standpoint.

Now if you add Gay into the mix, he's slightly below average for his position. That is a bit of an issue but I think you're exaggerating even the impact of having a 35% shooter at SF by calling the lineup horrible or saying every team will simply pack the paint. Teams are going to pack the paint regardless with Cousins down low and as we saw this season, it doesn't matter. I'm far more concerned about having a shooter on the wing who can hit an open shot when Cousins passes out of a double than I am about defenders packing the paint and taking our offense away. And we've talked about this already when people say Collison needs to be replaced. Collison is a great shooter, McLemore is above average. We're unlikely to get better at either position from a shooting point of view because the upgrades just aren't there. Sometimes I think people are looking for a perfect player who doesn't exist. Yes ideally it would be nice to have great shooters at every position on the floor -- GS this year comes close to that and they're carving up the league. Most teams play a PF who can't shoot from three and a C who can't shoot from 15 feet out. We're ahead of the game already with Cousins' ability to hit long jumpers. You could think about replacing Gay with more of a 3 and D player if it bothers you that much, but I don't think it's as big of an issue as you're making it. We would always have two players on the court who can shoot from 3 at a decent enough percentage to keep their defenders honest. Cousins can't be guarded one-on-one and Rudy can create his own shot as well. Spacing will be fine.
 

gunks

Hall of Famer
#30
TBH, I wish there would stop the comparisons of Nik to Jimmer. The only similarities between the two is they were very good shooters in college and are both white. Beyond that, Nik has a helluva lot more tools to work with and with Jimmer shooting 18% from 3 this year, you can't even say he's a shooter at the NBA level. He's more of a mason building a house out of bricks.

Our issue was more using back to back picks on SGs who need time to develop.

With all that being said, if Midiay were to be available when we pick I'd have to think long and hard about taking him even though he too would need time to develop and I say that because unlike many here, I simply don't like DC all that much nor do I like the idea of getting Lawson.
I was comparing expectations, not skill sets, I suppose I could have been more clear. And I agree, Nik is 10x the prospect Jimmer was.
 
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