Welcome to .500 Kings Fans

[Bricklayer]

Don't believe me?

Consider:

After our 1-7 start, we have gone 16-16.
Without Boogie, we are 1-7. With Boogie, we are 16-16.

And we have been very consistent in our .500 ness. If you break the 32 games since the 1-7 start into 10-12 game groups:

First 12 games: 6-6
Next 10 games: 5-5
Last 10 games: 5-5

We are a .500 team so long as Boogie is on that floor.


I feel pretty confident in predicting that is the longest stretch of .500 ball we have played in 8 years at least, but there is a problem beyond the up and down play playing havoc with an already jittery fanbase. We have gone 16-16 since the bad start, if we go 21-21 the rest of the way, because of the 1-7 start we end up only 38-44, very very borderline for a playoff spot even in this down year out West. If all we do is play .500 ball, we can never make up the early 1-7 and actually reach .500 for the season. We just keep marginally inching toward.500, but can't reach it without a good win streak.

Here's a season win chart:

Bad start. Stabilize, and then very very slowly and mostly steadily inch forward bit by bit.


We've got 42 games remaining. In order to actually hit .500 for the full season we need to convert that 21-21 into 24-18, which is to say we need to play at about the level Dallas/Miami/Atlanta have thus far. Basically we need to play like a #5 seed just to finish at .500.

20 are home games.
22 are road games.
9 more back to backs
We've got 8 remaining games against the 5 worst/spiraling teams in the league (PHI, LAL, PHX, BKN, MIN).
We've got 4 remaining games against the 3 superpowers (GSW, CLE, SAS)
We've got 4 remaining games against Portland and Utah.

 

[dude12]

There has to be a 10 game record of 7-3 somewhere in the season....if they can eliminate some of these bad games(Phil, Port,etc) it's possible.

 

[KingMilz]

We have the 4th hardest Strength of Schedule remaining in the NBA won't be easy

Edit: ignore I got it twisted

 

[andjel]

We have the 4th hardest Strength of Schedule remaining in the NBA won't be easy

Seems quite the opposite
http://www.playoffstatus.com/nba/westernsosrg.html

 

[kingsboi]

.500? sure when you look at it hypothetically but none the less, the record is still 17-23...I refuse to fall for this trap the Kings are playing with us, not happening.

 

[Section 101]

05/06 season they finished 44-38. 20-9 record after the all star break. That means they were 24-29 when they went on the run.

 

[Bricklayer]

05/06 season they finished 44-38. 20-9 record after the all star break. That means they were 24-29 when they went on the run.

That was the Artest/Bonzi year right?

We could really use an Artest trade right about now. too bad I don't see him out there and available. Draymond is probably the closest thing. I hae doubts we can get him.

 

[Merdiesel]

We have the 4th hardest Strength of Schedule remaining in the NBA won't be easy

Good. I want these guys battle tested.
I know they can do it. They just need to believe and understand how good they can truly be.

Rondo - very high BBIQ, leads league in assists
Casspi - Top 3 perimeter shooter, plays hard every night
Cousins - Best big man on the planet, playing his best basketball of his career
Gay - Solid #2 option, finally hitting big shots, grabbing boards and showing some fight
Cauley-Stein - Young, hungry and can shut down the paint
Collison - playing better as of late. Possible return of 2014 Darren?
Koufos, McLemore, Belli and Acy have all shown they can contribute

All led by the 5th most winning coach in NBA history.

That to me is more than enough talent to not only get in but to make it interesting...

 

[Bricklayer]

Seems quite the opposite
http://www.playoffstatus.com/nba/westernsosrg.html

Yeah, this needs to be repeated. I don't think the 4th toughest thing is right -- in fact I think KingMiz may have accidentally reversed the stat, because we appear to have the 4th EASIEST schedule the rest of the way.

In fact the way our schedule looks is we have a brutal stretch from just before the All Star break until the beginning of March. But if we can survive the murderer's row, March/April looks very soft. If we are still right there we could have a chance to make a move.

After we get back from a nasty 4 game roadtrip from Mar 2-7, @MEM, @DAl, @SAS @NOH capped by coming home to the Cavs, from that point onward the remainder of our schedule is:

ORL
UTH
@LAL
NOH
@DET
@NYK
@ CHI
@MIN
PHX
DAL
@POR
WSH
MIA
@DEN
POR
MIN
OKC
@PHX
@HOU

I mean...there is no resistance there to a good team making a playoff push. Not a single automatic loss in our last 19 games. Chances to directly impact UTH and POR...its a sweet close for us if we can just hang tough until then.

 

[Section 101]

That was the Artest/Bonzi year right?

We could really use an Artest trade right about now. too bad I don't see him out there and available. Draymond is probably the closest thing. I hae doubts we can get him.

yep.

 

[jcwkings]

And to think we are .500 with losses to teams like Philly, Minnesota x2, Portland(without Lillard), New Orleans and three choke jobs against good teams in Dallas, OKC and Charlotte. Thats eight games right there that if we win puts us closer to the Clippers than to scrapping for the eigth seed.

The 1-7 start also isnt as bad as it sounds with two games vs the Clips at full strength(with Cuz leaving a game at the half to injury, and games vs the Warriors and Spurs who are on all time record type paces. All that for a team with a bunch of new faces and new system.

All in all the first half of the season hasnt been AS bad as some of the fan talk would illustrate, but there have certainly been missed opportunities. My saving grace for the second half is that our roster is proving to be more like the mid pack playoff teams than the glut of 8th seed hopefuls, and slowly we are seeing better basketball.

 

[Siranthony]

We have the 4th hardest Strength of Schedule remaining in the NBA won't be easy

Several times I have looked at the schedule to look for easy wins. They are always few and far between. We have a tough schedule period. But we lose most of those games so far. Right now our games have been spaced apart. So now is the time. We need to go on a 7-1 run to make up for start of the season. We can do it. We have improved on the road. Improved on back to backs. Now we have to figure out how not to come out flat after 2 or 3 days off and win against weaker opponents.

 

[andjel]

How misinformation gets hold when stated convincingly.

Kings DO NOT have the hardest schedule, it is the opposite:

Quick count, out of 42 games:

22 games against currently under 50% teams (there are currently more teams with 50%+ record so on its own this points toward comparatively easier schedule)
7 against teams 50%- 55%
6 against less 55%+ - 60%
7 against 60%+ teams

Bad news, Jazz and Grizzlies have similar schedule, 23 sub 50% teams.
Good news, Blazers have only 16 sub 50% teams, Houston has 20 and Dallas 18.

In short, if every team wins against sub 50% opponents and loses against above 50% folks, exception being that we beat Jazz and Rockets once and Dallas twice, we are talking about 6th slot.

Now, looking at the Kings record against weaker opponents, the above numbers spell doom ;-)

 

[Blastoff]

Yah, that "4th hardest to finish" statement doesn't pass the smell test. We had one of the hardest starts, which would mean the rest of the schedule is easier. We play the same schedule as the rest of our division overall, this ain't college football, unless we're looking at back-to-backs.

 

[Hoovtrain]

Unbelievable that this year it will probably only take 38 or so wins to get a playoff spot in the west and these a holes can't even get their act together enough to attain that. This team should be sitting pretty at #5

 

[KingMilz]

Yeah, this needs to be repeated. I don't think the 4th toughest thing is right -- in fact I think KingMiz may have accidentally reversed the stat, because we appear to have the 4th EASIEST schedule the rest of the way.

In fact the way our schedule looks is we have a brutal stretch from just before the All Star break until the beginning of March. But if we can survive the murderer's row, March/April looks very soft. If we are still right there we could have a chance to make a move.

After we get back from a nasty 4 game roadtrip from Mar 2-7, @MEM, @DAl, @SAS @NOH capped by coming home to the Cavs, from that point onward the remainder of our schedule is:

ORL
UTH
@LAL
NOH
@DET
@NYK
@ CHI
@MIN
PHX
DAL
@POR
WSH
MIA
@DEN
POR
MIN
OKC
@PHX
@HOU

I mean...there is no resistance there to a good team making a playoff push. Not a single automatic loss in our last 19 games. Chances to directly impact UTH and POR...its a sweet close for us if we can just hang tough until then.

You might be right but I always though for some reason the 1. team in the SOS meant hardest the ESPN one has us 4th from top. Apologies if I was wrong on that one.

 

[biltalent]

Yeah, this needs to be repeated. I don't think the 4th toughest thing is right -- in fact I think KingMiz may have accidentally reversed the stat, because we appear to have the 4th EASIEST schedule the rest of the way.

In fact the way our schedule looks is we have a brutal stretch from just before the All Star break until the beginning of March. But if we can survive the murderer's row, March/April looks very soft. If we are still right there we could have a chance to make a move.

After we get back from a nasty 4 game roadtrip from Mar 2-7, @MEM, @DAl, @SAS @NOH capped by coming home to the Cavs, from that point onward the remainder of our schedule is:

ORL
UTH
@LAL
NOH
@DET
@NYK
@ CHI
@MIN
PHX
DAL
@POR
WSH
MIA
@DEN
POR
MIN
OKC
@PHX
@HOU

I mean...there is no resistance there to a good team making a playoff push. Not a single automatic loss in our last 19 games. Chances to directly impact UTH and POR...its a sweet close for us if we can just hang tough until then.

If we can somehow show up and play hard every game of this stretch we could go 13-5 to close out the sesson. But you never know with this team.

 

[Siranthony]

According to this site we have the second weakest schedule in the western conference from here on out.

http://stats.nba.com/playoffpicture

Most sites list strength of schedule by start of season to current date. It's quite a coincidence that the best teams in the west like GSW and SAS had the weakest schedules so far. The good news is, the roles will reverse for the second half.

 

[William Blake]

You might be right but I always though for some reason the 1. team in the SOS meant hardest the ESPN one has us 4th from top. Apologies if I was wrong on that one.

SOS refers to past games, not future ones*. Which means that, barring any dramatic changes, teams on top have the relatively easier schedule from that point forward.

* It's a piece of the puzzle for calculating SRS, which has the Kings as the 8th team in the west even including that horrible stretch with Cousins out.

 

[k_dubb90]

As long as we don't have any more meltdowns(PHI,NO) we should be in the playoffs. Hopefully our boys learned from their mistakes

 

[Glenn]

According to this site we have the second weakest schedule in the western conference from here on out.

http://stats.nba.com/playoffpicture

Most sites list strength of schedule by start of season to current date. It's quite a coincidence that the best teams in the west like GSW and SAS had the weakest schedules so far. The good news is, the roles will reverse for the second half.

That means we are going to win the Western Conference, right?

 

[FaStRmAn]

If and when this team is at .500, I will be elated. I think they will have to make some mid season changes specifically at the 2 guard spot. we need consistency in both offense and defense at that spot, and we have not gotten either.

That being said, they are winning games despite this. I do believe that Vlade will make a move at the midpoint before the deadline however. Vivek wants a playoff team rolling into the new arena, and I believe the only way that is gonna happen is with an addition of a 3 and D 2 guard who can defend his position and hit open jumpers when called upon. A shooting guard that gives us 10-12 points a game and good defense CONSISTENTLY is all we need.

 

[NewArena]

Don't believe me?

Consider:

After our 1-7 start, we have gone 16-16.
Without Boogie, we are 1-7. With Boogie, we are 16-16.

And we have been very consistent in our .500 ness. If you break the 32 games since the 1-7 start into 10-12 game groups:

First 12 games: 6-6
Next 10 games: 5-5
Last 10 games: 5-5

We are a .500 team so long as Boogie is on that floor.


I feel pretty confident in predicting that is the longest stretch of .500 ball we have played in 8 years at least, but there is a problem beyond the up and down play playing havoc with an already jittery fanbase. We have gone 16-16 since the bad start, if we go 21-21 the rest of the way, because of the 1-7 start we end up only 38-44, very very borderline for a playoff spot even in this down year out West. If all we do is play .500 ball, we can never make up the early 1-7 and actually reach .500 for the season. We just keep marginally inching toward.500, but can't reach it without a good win streak.

Here's a season win chart:

Bad start. Stabilize, and then very very slowly and mostly steadily inch forward bit by bit.


We've got 42 games remaining. In order to actually hit .500 for the full season we need to convert that 21-21 into 24-18, which is to say we need to play at about the level Dallas/Miami/Atlanta have thus far. Basically we need to play like a #5 seed just to finish at .500.

20 are home games.
22 are road games.
9 more back to backs
We've got 8 remaining games against the 5 worst/spiraling teams in the league (PHI, LAL, PHX, BKN, MIN).
We've got 4 remaining games against the 3 superpowers (GSW, CLE, SAS)
We've got 4 remaining games against Portland and Utah.

i'd feel super confident if we had a consistent Rudy Gay right now

 

[ParniValjak]

i'd feel super confident if we had a consistent Rudy Gay right now

We would have a more consistent Rudy Gay if he was played in his natural SF position. Gay at 4 has not worked in multiple places. It's why he looked terrible in Toronto and it is why he has been wildly inconsistent with the Kings this season, despite playing his career best basketball in Sacramento prior to this season.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to join the dots.