This year, some of the board's top prospect hounds and I are putting together a new feature - the Draft Big Board. We're going to be writing up the players we find most interesting in the draft, and splitting them up into five general tiers. Our first tier is ready (though I'll be updating it with stats from the draft combine once that happens) and the other tiers will follow when they're finished. While these threads will be useful for draft prospect reference, they're also intended for discussion threads, so chat away! Without further ado, here's the first tier:
Hit The Lottery (approximate draft position 1-4):
Karl-Anthony Towns (PF/C, Freshman, 19 y.o., Kentucky)
21.1 mpg - 10.3 ppg - 56.6% fgp - 57.7% 2pp - 25.0% 3pp - 81.3% ftp - 6.7 rpg - 2.2 bpg
Stats (from Kentucky Pro Day)
Height in shoes: 6'11.25"
Weight: 250 pounds
Wingspan: 7'3.5"
Standing Reach: 9'1"
Maximum Vertical Jump: 36.5"
Analysis: Towns came to Kentucky as a player that played mostly on the perimeter. In high school he was always ready to pull the trigger on a three point shot, hitting 46%. As a result, he was very raw in the post, where John Calipari wanted him to do most of his work. To his credit, he went from a player that looked clumsy at times, to a real threat by seasons end. His footwork still needs a lot of work as do his ball fakes, but he can hook over either shoulder with consistency. He does a good job of establishing position, has a good feel for the double team, and passing to the open man. In general, he's a very good passer. He's also a very good rebounder averaging around 13 boards per 40. He has an excellent midrange jumpshot that should easily convert out to the NBA three. While he only shot 25.0% this season from the three, he took so few that it doesn't qualify as large enough sample. What makes Towns unique for a near seven footer, is his ability to shine on the defensive side of the ball. He averaged 2.2 blocks per game this season and over 4 blocks per 40. He also defended the pick and roll well, sometimes switching onto a smaller player, or switching back in time to cover his man at the basket. I wouldn't call him an explosive leaper, but he has incredible timing when blocking shots. Still, he has a troubling tendency to rack up a lot of fouls. I would say he's more fast than quick, when running the floor, and more instinctive than blessed with lateral quickness when guarding a quicker player on the perimeter. He's an above average but not elite athlete. He needs to strengthen his lower body, and improve his post game. Judging by his improvement this season, I don't see that as a problem. He should be capable of setting up shop in the post as a center, or moving out to the perimeter and playing PF. He's capable, with added strength, of guarding both positions. All of this is why I think he'll get drafted before Okafor. --Bajaden
Jahlil Okafor (PF/C, Freshman, 19 y.o., Duke)
30.1 mpg - 17.3 ppg - 66.4% fgp - 8.6 rpg - 1.4 bpg
Stats (from 2014 Hoop Summit)
Height in shoes: 6'10.75"
Weight: 272 pounds
Wingspan: 7'5"
Standing Reach: 9'2.5"
Maximum Vertical Jump: N/A
Analysis: While the majority on this board prefer Towns, Okafor is still in contention for the #1 overall pick. His main strength is on offense. When he gets the ball in the post he commands an immediate and mandatory double team, or it's basically a score. He's very good at scoring with his back to the basket in the post, and he's willing to kick out to a shooter if he's double teamed. He's also very good playing in the pick and roll, which is a bit of a lost skill in college. He has a good handle and a passable jumper, though his range is limited. He's a good rebounder who uses his height and length to contest from behind and he will box out when he's in position, but he has a tendency to concede rebounds - particularly on free throws by his own team. He doesn't love to mix it up. His real question marks come on the defensive side of the ball. He's actually a very good scheme defender - he knows what he's supposed to be doing and he does it. He's not easy to score on in the post and he can defend a drive one-on-one, but his help D and rotation is basically non-existent. In the same way that Okafor's slow deliberation on the offensive end is an asset, on the defensive end it's a liability. He doesn't react to the play, he thinks - and that's too slow. He's not an explosive player either - while his frame is really great, carrying plenty of weight and with a super solid lower body, he's not going to jump through the roof, and he doesn't have anything resembling a quick first step. He'll need to constantly work on his conditioning, especially since he'll presumably put on a good bit of muscle in the NBA weight rooms. Okafor is a very safe pick, and he will be a great post scorer, but his defensive deficiencies limit his ceiling. -- Capt. Factorial
D'Angelo Russell (PG/SG, Freshman, 19 y.o., Ohio St.)
33.9 mpg - 19.3 ppg - 44.9% fgp - 41.1% 3pp - 5.7 rpg - 5.0 apg - 1.5 spg
Stats (2015 NBA Combine)
Height in shoes: 6'5"
Weight: 193 pounds
Wingspan: 6'9.75"
Standing Reach: 8'6"
Maximum Vertical Jump: N/A
Analysis: Lets get the bad out of the way first. Russell isn't blessed with great lateral quickness, and at times has trouble staying in front of his man. He does play the passing lanes well and gets the occasional steal. To be fair, his defense has improved quite a bit from the beginning of the season. There were times early on, when he appeared to be taking plays off. I saw less and less of that as the season wore on. I think he can be better than he is right now, but he'll likely never be a great defender. He also turns the ball over a bit too much, averaging 2.9 turnovers a game. Most come off of well intended passes, so its very correctable. Now the good! Russell is a very good offensive player who shot 41.1% from the three. He has excellent handles, a quick release on his shot, and is a very good shooter off the dribble. He runs the pick and roll extremely well, either scoring, or setting the table for a teammate. He's an excellent passer with terrific court vision. At times he seems to have eyes in the back of his head. Calm, cool, and collected best describe him. He's never rattled as he fires laser like passes around the floor. He always seems to be thinking two or three plays ahead, and never appears to be out of control. At times, he appears as though he's on a stroll in the park, when suddenly he'll fire a bullet like pass to a cutter going baseline. He makes the game look easy. His basketball IQ and natural instinctive feel for the game is off the charts. He's also a very good rebounder. At times he struggled finishing at the basket against bigger competition, but considering the other teams defense was geared toward stopping Russell, I don't think its much of a concern. I think he'll find it easier with the better spacing in the NBA. He didn't play lead guard at Ohio St.. Shannon Scott did, but they shared the play making responsibility. Russell is capable of playing either guard spot. If he was an elite athlete, which he isn't, he'd probably be in the running for the first pick in the draft. He's definitely future all star material. -- Bajaden
Emmanuel Mudiay (PG, 19 y.o., Guangdong/USA)
31.5 mpg - 18.0 ppg - 48% fgp - 34% 3pp - 6.3 rpg - 5.9 apg - 1.6 spg
Stats (from 2014 Hoop Summit)
Height in shoes: 6'5"
Weight: 200 pounds
Wingspan: 6'8.5"
Standing Reach: 8'4"
Maximum Vertical Jump: N/A
Analysis: A big, strong physical lead guard, Mudiay has more natural instincts at the PG position and will probably play there full time from day one. His size and physical attributes will allow him to play off the ball effectively, though. Mudiay is an excellent athlete and a physical specimen - elite size, length and strength for the PG position. He's quick too, but he doesn't look to be hugely agile due to his size. He's crafty though and a very good ball handler, so he doesn't have much trouble getting into the lane. Keep in mind he played in China, which, although not awful, is not really near the highest standards of international basketball. He has a high IQ and is a very capable passer. Like a lot of young players, he is turnover prone and needs to cut down, and given his style of play, he may always turn the ball over more than you'd like. But I don't think it's going to be a big problem, more likely something you live with given all the positives he can bring. Defensively he has very good potential due to his size, length and strength. His lateral quickness is good and he understands how to play defense. He's also disruptive in the passing lanes due to his big hands and long arms and effort is usually not a problem on this end. He's not a prolific shooter and needs to really improve his long ball. He shot 34% on the year in China (closer three point line) which is acceptable but nothing great. It's only going to get more difficult for him from here on out, but shooting is probably the easiest of the major skills to improve so he will be fine. I'll be honest - it's hard for me to give a definitive opinion on Mudiay given that I was limited in how much I could watch him. But he does have a lot of physical tools and a promising foundation of skills. He was also a big part of Guangdong's team when he wasn't injured, so at least he did all he could do in a new environment. He's very competitive so it's no surprise that he's being rated as high as he is. Will be very interesting to see if he goes top 4 as is being predicted currently. -- Dime Dropper
(I'd like to thank Bajaden and Dime Dropper, as well as Gilles and Uncia03, whose contributions will be forthcoming)
Hit The Lottery (approximate draft position 1-4):
Karl-Anthony Towns (PF/C, Freshman, 19 y.o., Kentucky)
21.1 mpg - 10.3 ppg - 56.6% fgp - 57.7% 2pp - 25.0% 3pp - 81.3% ftp - 6.7 rpg - 2.2 bpg
Stats (from Kentucky Pro Day)
Height in shoes: 6'11.25"
Weight: 250 pounds
Wingspan: 7'3.5"
Standing Reach: 9'1"
Maximum Vertical Jump: 36.5"
Analysis: Towns came to Kentucky as a player that played mostly on the perimeter. In high school he was always ready to pull the trigger on a three point shot, hitting 46%. As a result, he was very raw in the post, where John Calipari wanted him to do most of his work. To his credit, he went from a player that looked clumsy at times, to a real threat by seasons end. His footwork still needs a lot of work as do his ball fakes, but he can hook over either shoulder with consistency. He does a good job of establishing position, has a good feel for the double team, and passing to the open man. In general, he's a very good passer. He's also a very good rebounder averaging around 13 boards per 40. He has an excellent midrange jumpshot that should easily convert out to the NBA three. While he only shot 25.0% this season from the three, he took so few that it doesn't qualify as large enough sample. What makes Towns unique for a near seven footer, is his ability to shine on the defensive side of the ball. He averaged 2.2 blocks per game this season and over 4 blocks per 40. He also defended the pick and roll well, sometimes switching onto a smaller player, or switching back in time to cover his man at the basket. I wouldn't call him an explosive leaper, but he has incredible timing when blocking shots. Still, he has a troubling tendency to rack up a lot of fouls. I would say he's more fast than quick, when running the floor, and more instinctive than blessed with lateral quickness when guarding a quicker player on the perimeter. He's an above average but not elite athlete. He needs to strengthen his lower body, and improve his post game. Judging by his improvement this season, I don't see that as a problem. He should be capable of setting up shop in the post as a center, or moving out to the perimeter and playing PF. He's capable, with added strength, of guarding both positions. All of this is why I think he'll get drafted before Okafor. --Bajaden
Jahlil Okafor (PF/C, Freshman, 19 y.o., Duke)
30.1 mpg - 17.3 ppg - 66.4% fgp - 8.6 rpg - 1.4 bpg
Stats (from 2014 Hoop Summit)
Height in shoes: 6'10.75"
Weight: 272 pounds
Wingspan: 7'5"
Standing Reach: 9'2.5"
Maximum Vertical Jump: N/A
Analysis: While the majority on this board prefer Towns, Okafor is still in contention for the #1 overall pick. His main strength is on offense. When he gets the ball in the post he commands an immediate and mandatory double team, or it's basically a score. He's very good at scoring with his back to the basket in the post, and he's willing to kick out to a shooter if he's double teamed. He's also very good playing in the pick and roll, which is a bit of a lost skill in college. He has a good handle and a passable jumper, though his range is limited. He's a good rebounder who uses his height and length to contest from behind and he will box out when he's in position, but he has a tendency to concede rebounds - particularly on free throws by his own team. He doesn't love to mix it up. His real question marks come on the defensive side of the ball. He's actually a very good scheme defender - he knows what he's supposed to be doing and he does it. He's not easy to score on in the post and he can defend a drive one-on-one, but his help D and rotation is basically non-existent. In the same way that Okafor's slow deliberation on the offensive end is an asset, on the defensive end it's a liability. He doesn't react to the play, he thinks - and that's too slow. He's not an explosive player either - while his frame is really great, carrying plenty of weight and with a super solid lower body, he's not going to jump through the roof, and he doesn't have anything resembling a quick first step. He'll need to constantly work on his conditioning, especially since he'll presumably put on a good bit of muscle in the NBA weight rooms. Okafor is a very safe pick, and he will be a great post scorer, but his defensive deficiencies limit his ceiling. -- Capt. Factorial
D'Angelo Russell (PG/SG, Freshman, 19 y.o., Ohio St.)
33.9 mpg - 19.3 ppg - 44.9% fgp - 41.1% 3pp - 5.7 rpg - 5.0 apg - 1.5 spg
Stats (2015 NBA Combine)
Height in shoes: 6'5"
Weight: 193 pounds
Wingspan: 6'9.75"
Standing Reach: 8'6"
Maximum Vertical Jump: N/A
Analysis: Lets get the bad out of the way first. Russell isn't blessed with great lateral quickness, and at times has trouble staying in front of his man. He does play the passing lanes well and gets the occasional steal. To be fair, his defense has improved quite a bit from the beginning of the season. There were times early on, when he appeared to be taking plays off. I saw less and less of that as the season wore on. I think he can be better than he is right now, but he'll likely never be a great defender. He also turns the ball over a bit too much, averaging 2.9 turnovers a game. Most come off of well intended passes, so its very correctable. Now the good! Russell is a very good offensive player who shot 41.1% from the three. He has excellent handles, a quick release on his shot, and is a very good shooter off the dribble. He runs the pick and roll extremely well, either scoring, or setting the table for a teammate. He's an excellent passer with terrific court vision. At times he seems to have eyes in the back of his head. Calm, cool, and collected best describe him. He's never rattled as he fires laser like passes around the floor. He always seems to be thinking two or three plays ahead, and never appears to be out of control. At times, he appears as though he's on a stroll in the park, when suddenly he'll fire a bullet like pass to a cutter going baseline. He makes the game look easy. His basketball IQ and natural instinctive feel for the game is off the charts. He's also a very good rebounder. At times he struggled finishing at the basket against bigger competition, but considering the other teams defense was geared toward stopping Russell, I don't think its much of a concern. I think he'll find it easier with the better spacing in the NBA. He didn't play lead guard at Ohio St.. Shannon Scott did, but they shared the play making responsibility. Russell is capable of playing either guard spot. If he was an elite athlete, which he isn't, he'd probably be in the running for the first pick in the draft. He's definitely future all star material. -- Bajaden
Emmanuel Mudiay (PG, 19 y.o., Guangdong/USA)
31.5 mpg - 18.0 ppg - 48% fgp - 34% 3pp - 6.3 rpg - 5.9 apg - 1.6 spg
Stats (from 2014 Hoop Summit)
Height in shoes: 6'5"
Weight: 200 pounds
Wingspan: 6'8.5"
Standing Reach: 8'4"
Maximum Vertical Jump: N/A
Analysis: A big, strong physical lead guard, Mudiay has more natural instincts at the PG position and will probably play there full time from day one. His size and physical attributes will allow him to play off the ball effectively, though. Mudiay is an excellent athlete and a physical specimen - elite size, length and strength for the PG position. He's quick too, but he doesn't look to be hugely agile due to his size. He's crafty though and a very good ball handler, so he doesn't have much trouble getting into the lane. Keep in mind he played in China, which, although not awful, is not really near the highest standards of international basketball. He has a high IQ and is a very capable passer. Like a lot of young players, he is turnover prone and needs to cut down, and given his style of play, he may always turn the ball over more than you'd like. But I don't think it's going to be a big problem, more likely something you live with given all the positives he can bring. Defensively he has very good potential due to his size, length and strength. His lateral quickness is good and he understands how to play defense. He's also disruptive in the passing lanes due to his big hands and long arms and effort is usually not a problem on this end. He's not a prolific shooter and needs to really improve his long ball. He shot 34% on the year in China (closer three point line) which is acceptable but nothing great. It's only going to get more difficult for him from here on out, but shooting is probably the easiest of the major skills to improve so he will be fine. I'll be honest - it's hard for me to give a definitive opinion on Mudiay given that I was limited in how much I could watch him. But he does have a lot of physical tools and a promising foundation of skills. He was also a big part of Guangdong's team when he wasn't injured, so at least he did all he could do in a new environment. He's very competitive so it's no surprise that he's being rated as high as he is. Will be very interesting to see if he goes top 4 as is being predicted currently. -- Dime Dropper
(I'd like to thank Bajaden and Dime Dropper, as well as Gilles and Uncia03, whose contributions will be forthcoming)
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