Ongoing draft/lottery discussion [OPEN SPOILERS]
- Thread starter hrdboild
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That's the general rule, and I've expressed that sentiment before, but it's not always true. Look at the rookie years of these recent PG lotto picks:
Derrick Rose (1st pick in 2008): 16.8pts, 6.3asts, 3.9rebs, 48% overall fg%
Tyreke Evans (4th pick in 2009): 20.1pts, 5.8asts, 5.3rebs, 1.5stls, 46% overall fg%
Steph Curry (7th pick in 2009): 17.5pts, 5.9asts, 4.5rebs, 1.9stls, 44% 3pt shooting
Brandon Jennings (10th pick in 2009): 15.5pts, 5.7asts, 3.4rebs, 1.3stls, 37% 3pt shooting
John Wall (1st pick in 2010): 16.4pts, 8.3asts, 4.6rebs, 1.8stls
Kyrie Irving (1st pick in 2011) 18.5pts, 5.4asts, 3.7rebs, 40% 3pt shooting
Damian Lillard (6th pick in 2012): 19pts, 6.5asts, 3.1rebs, 37% 3pt shooting
Michael Carter-Williams (11th pick in 2013): 16.7pts, 6.3asts, 6.3rebs, 1.9stls
Any one of those rookie seasons makes us a better team next year. Also 8 elite PGs who posted All-Star type numbers as rookies in the last 7 drafts aren't bad odds really. Our scouting department has to do their job and make sure Mudiay is in that category of course, but I wouldn't rule him out entirely just because we're trying to make the playoffs. We have George Karl. If he's an elite talent, George will know what to do with him.
Derrick Rose (1st pick in 2008): 16.8pts, 6.3asts, 3.9rebs, 48% overall fg%
Tyreke Evans (4th pick in 2009): 20.1pts, 5.8asts, 5.3rebs, 1.5stls, 46% overall fg%
Steph Curry (7th pick in 2009): 17.5pts, 5.9asts, 4.5rebs, 1.9stls, 44% 3pt shooting
Brandon Jennings (10th pick in 2009): 15.5pts, 5.7asts, 3.4rebs, 1.3stls, 37% 3pt shooting
John Wall (1st pick in 2010): 16.4pts, 8.3asts, 4.6rebs, 1.8stls
Kyrie Irving (1st pick in 2011) 18.5pts, 5.4asts, 3.7rebs, 40% 3pt shooting
Damian Lillard (6th pick in 2012): 19pts, 6.5asts, 3.1rebs, 37% 3pt shooting
Michael Carter-Williams (11th pick in 2013): 16.7pts, 6.3asts, 6.3rebs, 1.9stls
Any one of those rookie seasons makes us a better team next year. Also 8 elite PGs who posted All-Star type numbers as rookies in the last 7 drafts aren't bad odds really. Our scouting department has to do their job and make sure Mudiay is in that category of course, but I wouldn't rule him out entirely just because we're trying to make the playoffs. We have George Karl. If he's an elite talent, George will know what to do with him.
I listed three logical reasons why they might. Four actually if you count the "we never should have traded Tyson Chandler" do-over factor. Also, nobody in their right mind would have passed on DeMarcus Cousins in the top 4 or taken Anthony Bennett first overall but these things happen every year. I don't think Phil Jackson is dumb, I do however think he has specific needs (superstar to appease, impatient fans, triangle offense friendly PG preferred, complete lack of serviceable bigs, no first or second round pick next year) which might push him in that direction. He can't afford to miss on this pick.
How many of those guards were on winning teams?
Bulls went from 33-49 to 41-41
Kings - from 17-65 to 25-57
GSW - from 29-53 to 26-56
Bucks - from 34-48 to 46-36, but they got 2 new starters and more than 30 more games from Bogut
Wizards - from 26-56 to 23-59
Blazers - from 28-38 to 33-49
Sixers - from 34-48 to 19-63
Collison will be a better PG for Kings, than rookie and likely sophomore Mudiay.
Bulls went from 33-49 to 41-41
Kings - from 17-65 to 25-57
GSW - from 29-53 to 26-56
Bucks - from 34-48 to 46-36, but they got 2 new starters and more than 30 more games from Bogut
Wizards - from 26-56 to 23-59
Blazers - from 28-38 to 33-49
Sixers - from 34-48 to 19-63
Collison will be a better PG for Kings, than rookie and likely sophomore Mudiay.
I would say that too, but I've watched Stanley Johnson play a lot and it would be really hard for me to pick anyone else, even Mudiay, if he's still on the board. I don't care all that much where draft experts predict players will go. If I really like a player, he's my pick regardless of draft position. My gut tells me I would end up looking back in 4 years and hate myself for passing on Stanley Johnson when he's a perfect two-way All-Star SF signing a 5 year extension for some other team.
None of those teams had 2nd team All-NBA DeMarcus Cousins on them.
Winning is a product of talent. We have some, we need more. The point was it doesn't always take a couple years for PGs to get the hang of the NBA, some of them are great the first time they put on a uniform. What they did for their respective teams is kind of irrelevant because none of those teams are in the situation we're in now. And as Brick already pointed out with regards to Ty Lawson, we already have a pretty good PG. Mudiay wouldn't be replacing Collison next year so much as he'd be replacing Sessions/McCallum/Miller as the best guard off the bench. In that context, it's hard to see how he wouldn't be an upgrade. And he has the size to play SG so he's one more body we can put out there if McLemore and Stuaskas continue to struggle.
None of those teams had 2nd team All-NBA DeMarcus Cousins on them.
Winning is a product of talent. We have some, we need more. The point was it doesn't always take a couple years for PGs to get the hang of the NBA, some of them are great the first time they put on a uniform. What they did for their respective teams is kind of irrelevant because none of those teams are in the situation we're in now. And as Brick already pointed out with regards to Ty Lawson, we already have a pretty good PG. Mudiay wouldn't be replacing Collison next year so much as he'd be replacing Sessions/McCallum/Miller as the best guard off the bench. In that context, it's hard to see how he wouldn't be an upgrade. And he has the size to play SG so he's one more body we can put out there if McLemore and Stuaskas continue to struggle.
Most of us are talking about Mudiay as a consolation prize if WCS is off the table. There have been rumblings that the Knicks and Orlando may be interested, and Boston may try to move up in order to snatch WCS as well.
I think the majority of posters here want us to take Willie if he is available. Dude will fit into our roster quite nicely.
I think the majority of posters here want us to take Willie if he is available. Dude will fit into our roster quite nicely.
The thing is, folks used to want a shot-blocking big to take rim protection pressure of Cousins. Cousins came into the league as a mediocre rim protector, but has really developed there over the last two seasons. He is 12th overall in BPG, about .1 BPG behind "elite" rim protectors like Drummond and Noel. Coupled with his knack for taking charges, he has become a really excellent defensive presence inside. Where the Kings get killed is in covering the PnR where none of the Kings bigs have the mobility to hedge and recover or challenge on a closeout. I don't like Gay playing the four, but he is better suited than JT for covering PnR if that is what the opponent is beating us with.
WCS is who I want the Kings to get, not because he is a great rim protector (he's good, not great) but because he can switch and cover guards in the PnR if need be. Elite defensive teams have guys that can cover multiple positions so that switches don't hamstring your team. WCS should be able to guard at least 3 positions out of the gate, and hopefully 5 positions within a couple of years. Gay can guard 2-4. Cousins can guard 4-5. Collison can only really guard ones, and Ben ones and twos. Mudiay has the potential to be able to guard ones and twos, so I can see him being a good option if WCS is gone, but I don't see him replacing Collison anytime soon.
WCS is who I want the Kings to get, not because he is a great rim protector (he's good, not great) but because he can switch and cover guards in the PnR if need be. Elite defensive teams have guys that can cover multiple positions so that switches don't hamstring your team. WCS should be able to guard at least 3 positions out of the gate, and hopefully 5 positions within a couple of years. Gay can guard 2-4. Cousins can guard 4-5. Collison can only really guard ones, and Ben ones and twos. Mudiay has the potential to be able to guard ones and twos, so I can see him being a good option if WCS is gone, but I don't see him replacing Collison anytime soon.
If we still had Malone drafting WCS would be a no brainer. Cuz, WCS, Gay, Ben, Collison is stupidly good defensively, the length of the front 3 and the quickness of the backcourt would make for one hell of a defensive unit especially if Ben continues his upward trajectory. That is not the case though, how does WCS fit with Cousins in a Karl type system?
I understand that Cousins has become a good defender both individually and at the rim, however...you can't have him go out there and pick up silly fouls guarding a Blake Griffin, Zach Randolph, Aldridge, etc etc...hence why you draft Willie for length and having the luxury to throw a big out there that can help protect the paint with Cousins and making it that much harder for opponents to score inside.
It seems unlikely that both will be on the board when we pick, but not impossible - for instance, the 4/5 picks could be Porzingis and Winslow in some order. I do think that if WCS is off and Mudiay is there, we should take Mudiay and not think twice.
In the event that both Mudiay and WCS are on the board...it would be a painful decision, but given what I think I know about Mudiay (and I'd hope that our FO would have a lot more info via professional scouting and workouts, so take what I think I know with a grain of salt) I'd have to swallow hard and go with Mudiay.
Geoff Petrie has said that his biggest draft mistake was going for fit in Jason Williams instead of taking who he thought was the best player available (Paul Pierce). Williams was a good player and we needed a PG, but Pierce was a true franchise guy. WCS is going to be a good player, and we need a shot-blocking big man, but Mudiay has the look of that potential franchise guy. He's big, he's athletic, he can take it to the hole like Tyreke but he sees the floor better. People are saying they see John Wall, I see a lot of Tyreke there...if he gets a jumper (and his J has good form but he just may need a lot of repetition on it)...could be a franchise guy. I'm pretty confident WCS isn't a franchise guy. So I'd have to go with Mudiay.
In the event that both Mudiay and WCS are on the board...it would be a painful decision, but given what I think I know about Mudiay (and I'd hope that our FO would have a lot more info via professional scouting and workouts, so take what I think I know with a grain of salt) I'd have to swallow hard and go with Mudiay.
Geoff Petrie has said that his biggest draft mistake was going for fit in Jason Williams instead of taking who he thought was the best player available (Paul Pierce). Williams was a good player and we needed a PG, but Pierce was a true franchise guy. WCS is going to be a good player, and we need a shot-blocking big man, but Mudiay has the look of that potential franchise guy. He's big, he's athletic, he can take it to the hole like Tyreke but he sees the floor better. People are saying they see John Wall, I see a lot of Tyreke there...if he gets a jumper (and his J has good form but he just may need a lot of repetition on it)...could be a franchise guy. I'm pretty confident WCS isn't a franchise guy. So I'd have to go with Mudiay.
One of our major holes at the beginning of the season defensively, and one that flies directly in the face of how Karl likes to play, is that our guards were completely non-disruptive and provided almost no steals at all. Ben's probably the worst starting SG at that, and Darren is barely average, if that. Our best thief is actually our center. And so we played a conservative stay in front of you brand of defense, where Karl's history is all about the swarming, gambling pressure. I don't think just adding WCS to what we had is going to get us to where Karl wants us to be.
I agree with almost everything you said. Can't pass up the opportunity of getting your hands on a possible franchise level PG. Not for a defensive 4 with a considerably lower ceiling ever if he helps more for a year or two. And I say that as someone who's wanted a defensive 4 for years.
It's much, much tougher to get a franchise PG than it is to get a defensive big to play next to Cuz. Only reason we haven't is because it hasn't been priority, it's not that it's too tough to get one. We had Dally, decided not to keep him. We acquired Robin Lopez in a trade, decided to move him to Portland inexplicably. And again this summer there's guys available from Hibbert to Asik to both Lopez brothers, Wright, Chandler, Koufas, and that's not even all the bigs available in free agency as there's also Gasol, DA Jordan, Aldridge, Millsap, Josh Smith, Amir Johnson, among others. This actually is a very good off season to try to get a defensive big in free agency, and yes it'll cost a lot but so does getting a potential top PG. Lawson is on 12-13M/Y the next two for christ's sake.
It's much easier to acquire a defensive big than the PG Mudiay might become and his ceiling on both sides of the ball IMO would also be too big to pass up. Put it this way, as much as I'd love a defensive 4 next to Cuz, that's a support player. What's more important is acquiring a potential foundational piece, one of your potential 2-3 stars to build around. Mudiay has that ceiling.
It's much, much tougher to get a franchise PG than it is to get a defensive big to play next to Cuz. Only reason we haven't is because it hasn't been priority, it's not that it's too tough to get one. We had Dally, decided not to keep him. We acquired Robin Lopez in a trade, decided to move him to Portland inexplicably. And again this summer there's guys available from Hibbert to Asik to both Lopez brothers, Wright, Chandler, Koufas, and that's not even all the bigs available in free agency as there's also Gasol, DA Jordan, Aldridge, Millsap, Josh Smith, Amir Johnson, among others. This actually is a very good off season to try to get a defensive big in free agency, and yes it'll cost a lot but so does getting a potential top PG. Lawson is on 12-13M/Y the next two for christ's sake.
It's much easier to acquire a defensive big than the PG Mudiay might become and his ceiling on both sides of the ball IMO would also be too big to pass up. Put it this way, as much as I'd love a defensive 4 next to Cuz, that's a support player. What's more important is acquiring a potential foundational piece, one of your potential 2-3 stars to build around. Mudiay has that ceiling.
WCS is our guy. Its not necessarily about him being the best player on board or one with highest ceiling. It is about him being a perfect fit next to your franchise guy and maybe more importantly, a perfect pick to play between your franchise guy and your 2nd best player. He is a PERFECT fit precisely because he stays out of the way on offense, he is a great pick and roll defender and a very good rim protector. He is also a guy who can play both positions, guard both positions and runs like a gazelle.
You create your twin towers and your SF is a lengthy guy as well. All of a sudden, your defense sky rockets because you have your anchor. All of a sudden your have your size advantage in the frontcourt so teams cannot cheat against you. For years we have been saying that perfect type of player to get next to Cousins would be someone like Serge Ibaka. Well this guy is a Serge Ibaka type athlete. I doubt he ever becomes the long range shooter Ibaka has developed into, but he is making progress on his mid range jumper. He is improving his FT shooting. It's difficult to find a perfect fit next to Cousins. Suddenly there is this kid in the draft who fits beautifully. I am not interested in overlooking him for anyone who might be there at 6. In fact I would trade up to 4 just to make sure we get him.
You create your twin towers and your SF is a lengthy guy as well. All of a sudden, your defense sky rockets because you have your anchor. All of a sudden your have your size advantage in the frontcourt so teams cannot cheat against you. For years we have been saying that perfect type of player to get next to Cousins would be someone like Serge Ibaka. Well this guy is a Serge Ibaka type athlete. I doubt he ever becomes the long range shooter Ibaka has developed into, but he is making progress on his mid range jumper. He is improving his FT shooting. It's difficult to find a perfect fit next to Cousins. Suddenly there is this kid in the draft who fits beautifully. I am not interested in overlooking him for anyone who might be there at 6. In fact I would trade up to 4 just to make sure we get him.
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A question I would like to ask, is how mamy of you that are touting Mudiay as the next great PG to come down the pike, have seen him play in a game? How many have even watched film on him? How many are just reading his press clippings as a basis for their opinion, which I might add, is just someone else's opinion. How many of you would buy a new car sight unseen? Now I'm not saying that Mudiay won't be a good to great player, but I'm not going to bet my life on it, and I'm not going to assume he will be. Somehow on this forum he's gone from a top prospect to being a franchise player. If I had to choose between D'Angelo Russell and Mudiay, I'm taking Russell becasue I watched him play 14 or 15 times. I know what he can do, I don't have a frigging clue what Mudiay can do, other than what I've read. Trust me, everything you read isn't gospel.
This is probably an exercise in futility, since the likelyhood of Mudiay being available at six is very very small. I mean if he's a great as a lot of you think he is, then why would he be available at six? Just applying a little logic here. At six, barring some sort of total stupidity by a couple of teams, the best bet is Willie Cauley-Stein. He fixes a problem we've had for a long time, and I might remind you, that the system he played in at Kentucky, comes from the same source as Karl's system. They are remarkably similar. Now call me stupid, but if you have a hole, and the fix is sitting there, then you take the fix. We don't have a glaring hole at PG. I grant you that we don't have anyone resembling Chris Paul at that position, but then we don't have anyone resembling Lebron James at the SF position either. If were lucky enough to have Cauley-Stein sitting there when we pick, the smart thing to do is pick him, and go home happy. The bigger question is, what do we do if he's not there? And neither is Mudiay, for those with a quick answer.
This is probably an exercise in futility, since the likelyhood of Mudiay being available at six is very very small. I mean if he's a great as a lot of you think he is, then why would he be available at six? Just applying a little logic here. At six, barring some sort of total stupidity by a couple of teams, the best bet is Willie Cauley-Stein. He fixes a problem we've had for a long time, and I might remind you, that the system he played in at Kentucky, comes from the same source as Karl's system. They are remarkably similar. Now call me stupid, but if you have a hole, and the fix is sitting there, then you take the fix. We don't have a glaring hole at PG. I grant you that we don't have anyone resembling Chris Paul at that position, but then we don't have anyone resembling Lebron James at the SF position either. If were lucky enough to have Cauley-Stein sitting there when we pick, the smart thing to do is pick him, and go home happy. The bigger question is, what do we do if he's not there? And neither is Mudiay, for those with a quick answer.
To continue my last thought in the preceding post, and a scenario I've been giving a lot of thought to, who would be available, and what should our priorities be? One would have to assume that a group made up of Winslow, Porzingis, Hezonja, Stanley Johnson, Kaminsky, Turner, and Lyles would be our choices. I'm assuming that Towns, Okafor, Russell, Mudiay, Stein, would be in the top five. That's still a very talented group to choose from. So what are our priorities? Choose the most talented or skilled player? Choose the player with the most upside? How about the player with the best BBIQ? Or, the most athletic player? Choose the player best suited to help right away? It gets a little convoluted when you start breaking down what your looking for. Because maybe the answer to one question, doesn't pass the smell test of another question. Soooooo, compromise is in order.
I looked at all those questions, and more, and the name that I came up with surprised me. Frank Kaminsky. Kaminsky is without a doubt the most skilled player in that group. He also has terrific BBIQ, and feel for the game. He's also a player that will be able to help immediately. He can play both the center and PF positions. He can score inside, and is a great three point shooter. He's a good rebounder, especially a good defensive rebounder. He's a terrific ballhandler for a 7'1"player. The only reason he isn't projected higher is his age, and the fact that he's just an average athlete. I know some of you look at him as just a slow white dude. Well, so is Pau Gasol and so is Dirk Nowitzki. No, I'm not saying he'll be that good, but that sometimes you have to look past some of the obvious standards that are applied.
During the course of the season, Kaminsky went up against Okafor twice, and Towns once. In both his meetings with Okafor, he outplayed him. In his one meeting with Towns, he ended up with a slight edge in that meeting. Two of the meetings came in the tournament. In the championship game between Duke and Wisconsin, Okafor ended up with 10 points, 3 rebounds, no blocked shots, and was in foul trouble throughout most of the game. Kaminsky ended up with 21 points, 12 rebounds, 1 blocked shot, and 1 personal foul. Against Towns, both players shot 63% from the floor, with Towns scoring 16 points, 9 rebounds, and 1 block. Kaminsky scored 20 points, had 11 rebounds and 2 blocks. Kaminsky's earlier meeting with Okafor had similar results as the one I just listed. So Kaminsky outplayed the two players projected to go one/two in the draft. I grant you that he's not going to be a great shotblocker, but that's about his only deficiency. While he's not a great athlete, he does have good lateral quickness. What he lacks is length, and currently the physical strength to defend in the post against legit NBA centers. However, I think he'd fare surprisingly well against NBA PF's. Hopefully we won't have to make this choice, but if we do, I think Kaminsky should be considered.
By the way, part of what prompted me to this line of thinkinig, was that I was looking at mock drafts and asking myself who did I think, of players listed 12 and below, would be considered a top five pick 3 or 4 years from now. Frank Kaminsky's name just leaped out at me. I know its rare, but I could be wrong of course. Naw........
I looked at all those questions, and more, and the name that I came up with surprised me. Frank Kaminsky. Kaminsky is without a doubt the most skilled player in that group. He also has terrific BBIQ, and feel for the game. He's also a player that will be able to help immediately. He can play both the center and PF positions. He can score inside, and is a great three point shooter. He's a good rebounder, especially a good defensive rebounder. He's a terrific ballhandler for a 7'1"player. The only reason he isn't projected higher is his age, and the fact that he's just an average athlete. I know some of you look at him as just a slow white dude. Well, so is Pau Gasol and so is Dirk Nowitzki. No, I'm not saying he'll be that good, but that sometimes you have to look past some of the obvious standards that are applied.
During the course of the season, Kaminsky went up against Okafor twice, and Towns once. In both his meetings with Okafor, he outplayed him. In his one meeting with Towns, he ended up with a slight edge in that meeting. Two of the meetings came in the tournament. In the championship game between Duke and Wisconsin, Okafor ended up with 10 points, 3 rebounds, no blocked shots, and was in foul trouble throughout most of the game. Kaminsky ended up with 21 points, 12 rebounds, 1 blocked shot, and 1 personal foul. Against Towns, both players shot 63% from the floor, with Towns scoring 16 points, 9 rebounds, and 1 block. Kaminsky scored 20 points, had 11 rebounds and 2 blocks. Kaminsky's earlier meeting with Okafor had similar results as the one I just listed. So Kaminsky outplayed the two players projected to go one/two in the draft. I grant you that he's not going to be a great shotblocker, but that's about his only deficiency. While he's not a great athlete, he does have good lateral quickness. What he lacks is length, and currently the physical strength to defend in the post against legit NBA centers. However, I think he'd fare surprisingly well against NBA PF's. Hopefully we won't have to make this choice, but if we do, I think Kaminsky should be considered.
By the way, part of what prompted me to this line of thinkinig, was that I was looking at mock drafts and asking myself who did I think, of players listed 12 and below, would be considered a top five pick 3 or 4 years from now. Frank Kaminsky's name just leaped out at me. I know its rare, but I could be wrong of course. Naw........
If the Kings take Kaminsky at 6, assuming that the 2 bigs, Russel and Mudiay and WCS are all gone, I will be incredibly ticked off. It would be a reach like Stauskas was a reach last year. At some point, you need to start improving your athleticism and taking Stuaskas and Kaminsky in back to back years is not how you do it. If Kaminskys is their guy, then trade down like they should have last year.
If the above guys are gone, I'd do my due diligence on working out Winslow, Porzingas and the others.....but if none strike their fancy, I see us dealing the pick or Stauskas for vet help
If the above guys are gone, I'd do my due diligence on working out Winslow, Porzingas and the others.....but if none strike their fancy, I see us dealing the pick or Stauskas for vet help