Off-Season Plan #2 (Jimmy Butler)

[hrdboild]

Obviously signing Al Horford is a long-shot. I still think it's an avenue we should pursue but in the event he's not interested or Atlanta decides to give him that huge 5th year that we can't offer, we need a plan B (and probably also a plan C, D, E, and F). In this plan I'll be trading Rudy Gay and assets for Jimmy Butler and using cap space to fill the SF position.

First off, I want to remind you of my general points about the off-season. I won't be trading DeMarcus Cousins and I won't be trading up in the draft for a Ben Simmons/Brandon Ingram level prospect. I don't think we can go into next season hoping for 50 wins with a rookie expected to play a key role so I won't be drafting anyone and inserting them into the starting lineup either. We know know who our coach is going to be now though I don't think that will effect my planning at all. Joerger seems flexible on offense so as long as there's enough talent there we should be able to compete for a playoff spot.

Lastly I am planning to bring back Rondo. If this is where you check out, no harm no foul. This is my off-season plan and I think bringing him back is still our best option at PG for next season.

With that out of the way, here's Scenario #2:

This was going to be the scenario where we draft Kris Dunn and have him back up Collison for a year but as I was working that out I changed my mind. I think Dunn is a great prospect -- I would draft him third overall this year but he's also a rookie PG and changing PGs is like changing coaches. I'd like to see what we can build around Rondo/Cousins so instead I decided to use the pick to acquire an elite young wing player to complement Cousins. Chicago may or may not be willing to move Jimmy Butler, but if they are this looks like a realistic package to me. They get a starting SF, a young SG to develop, and a great young PG for when they inevitably move on from the Derrick Rose reclamation project (or push him to a super sub role).

The pick itself could go a number of ways. We still need depth on the wing and I like Luwawu a lot if he's still on the board at 14. Our perimeter defense is already looking a lot better with those two moving into the rotation.

This is cheating because I used this trade last time, but it's important that we clear out cap space and we could subtract Collison and Belinelli without hurting the core of the team. I always like to keep a balance of veterans and young players so there's a chance for the coaching staff to improve the team internally rather than always having to by players every year to get better. The difference in this scenario is that I won't be plugging Stanley Johnson into the starting lineup, instead I'll be using all that cap space to go after Harrison Barnes.

In this scenario we're keeping Koufos who's already familiar with Dave Joerger from his time in Memphis. That leaves us a little thin in the front court but we still have about 4 million to spend on a backup PF -- potentially Quincy Acy. Keeping the effective Cauley-Stein/Cousins paring and dumping Jimmy Butler and Harrison Barnes into the middle of the floor should give Joerger ample opportunity to develop an effective team defense.

The Luwawu pick is really just a stab in the dark because it's impossible to say who will still be on the board. It's also possible we go with a young big here and spend that additional cap space on a veteran SG.

 

[ESP47]

Our starting lineup and defense would be as solid as it's been in a decade but our bench would be insanely weak with almost no ball handling. I don't think we can give up Collison without replacing him with another proven ball handler.

Besides, where does Duje Dukan even fit in to all of this?

 

[Amit149]

I don't think that the Bulls will give Butler alone for Gay, Ben and the 8th pick- thinking they will throw in the 14th pick is a fantasy.

And as ESP47 pointed out- where does Duje Dukan fit into this?

 

[hrdboild]

I don't think that the Bulls will give Butler alone for Gay, Ben and the 8th pick- thinking they will throw in the 14th pick is a fantasy.

And as ESP47 pointed out- where does Duje Dukan fit into this?

The only reason Anderson is on the roster writeup is because he has a player option. Dukan's contract isn't guaranteed so he can sign a new minimum contract after we spend our cap space. He may or may not be on the team next season but he's probably not on the active roster regardless so I didn't see the need to talk about him or figure him into the cap space math.

 

[swisshh]

Collison is tricky because he has probably the highest trade interest from other teams due to his contract and production, but that also makes him very valuable to the Kings.

Also, I just really like Darren and I think he's good for the locker room.

 

[Telemachus]

Collison is tricky because he has probably the highest trade interest from other teams due to his contract and production, but that also makes him very valuable to the Kings.

Also, I just really like Darren and I think he's good for the locker room.

I also liked that Collison retweeted A Video clip of the beginning of the press conference.

 

[swisshh]

I am starting to get the feeling that there won't be major upheaval with the roster. Joeger said in the interview that the Kings situation wasn't one where the team needed to be blown up. I imagine Vlade had some input on that.

I do expect the SG issue to be addressed in some manner, but a lot of the same guys might be back.

 

[Glenn]

I am starting to get the feeling that there won't be major upheaval with the roster. Joeger said in the interview that the Kings situation wasn't one where the team needed to be blown up. I imagine Vlade had some input on that.

I do expect the SG issue to be addressed in some manner, but a lot of the same guys might be back.

When people mention the Kings being blown up or major upheaval, that is code for getting rid of Boogie. That one single move would be insanity.

 

[hrdboild]

I don't think that the Bulls will give Butler alone for Gay, Ben and the 8th pick- thinking they will throw in the 14th pick is a fantasy.

A lot of people here seem to be under the impression that Rudy Gay and Ben McLemore have almost no value. Rudy Gay didn't have a very good year last year (by his standards) but for teams with a hole at SF he's a huge upgrade over roster filler like Mike Dunleavy or an unproven young player like McDermott. He can replace Butler's scoring nearly point for point and while his huge deal deflated his value at the time we acquired him from Toronto, the $13.3 million he's owed next season is a relative bargain especially with the salary cap going up to $92 million. Ben McLemore hasn't really developed here, but he's still just 23 and he's shown flashes of being a successful starter. He had a 41% average from three this season through the end of December before his shooting fell off a cliff and George Karl slashed his minutes. In this trade he allows Chicago to trade Jimmy Butler without opening up a huge hole at SG. And they'd also be getting their PG of the future in Kris Dunn which is the big piece here. He's got a lot of attributes which suggest he'll develop into an elite NBA PG and they're not getting anyone even close to that at #14. That's much better value than rolling the dice on a future pick.

Honestly I think Kris Dunn, Ben McLemore, and Rudy Gay for Jimmy Butler and a flyer on a mid first-round talent is a little bit of an overpay. They're getting 3 starters for 1 starter and what's likely to be a career bench player and Butler isn't a superstar either, just a very good second tier star. We might be better off just keeping Dunn but that means breaking up the Rondo/Cousins duo and as I stated before, I don't want to do that. Talent is important but so too is chemistry. Landing Jimmy Butler seemed like a good compromise to me -- we'd be getting a good enough young talent in return to justify passing on an elite PG prospect while filling our biggest hole in the starting lineup. This is all dependent on Dunn being on the board at #8 though. I don't see Chicago making the trade unless they can solve their PG problem in the process.

 

[kingsboi]

I am starting to get the feeling that there won't be major upheaval with the roster. Joeger said in the interview that the Kings situation wasn't one where the team needed to be blown up. I imagine Vlade had some input on that.

I do expect the SG issue to be addressed in some manner, but a lot of the same guys might be back.

Nothing wrong with that. At some point, you need continuity and not keep changing your whole roster. Let's see a new coach work with these guys and see how many guys buy in, the ones that don't, will get shown the door. Dave has stated that in his press conference and it's perfectly acceptable. Now that doesn't mean to go and explore trade options, such as trying to rid yourself of Gay and/or Ben.

 

[VF21]

Obviously signing Al Horford is a long-shot. I still think it's an avenue we should pursue but in the event he's not interested or Atlanta decides to give him that huge 5th year that we can't offer, we need a plan B (and probably also a plan C, D, E, and F). In this plan I'll be trading Rudy Gay and assets for Jimmy Butler and using cap space to fill the SF position.

First off, I want to remind you of my general points about the off-season. I won't be trading DeMarcus Cousins and I won't be trading up in the draft for a Ben Simmons/Brandon Ingram level prospect. I don't think we can go into next season hoping for 50 wins with a rookie expected to play a key role so I won't be drafting anyone and inserting them into the starting lineup either. We know know who our coach is going to be now though I don't think that will effect my planning at all. Joerger seems flexible on offense so as long as there's enough talent there we should be able to compete for a playoff spot.

Lastly I am planning to bring back Rondo. If this is where you check out, no harm no foul. This is my off-season plan and I think bringing him back is still our best option at PG for next season.

With that out of the way, here's Scenario #2:

This was going to be the scenario where we draft Kris Dunn and have him back up Collison for a year but as I was working that out I changed my mind. I think Dunn is a great prospect -- I would draft him third overall this year but he's also a rookie PG and changing PGs is like changing coaches. I'd like to see what we can build around Rondo/Cousins so instead I decided to use the pick to acquire an elite young wing player to complement Cousins. Chicago may or may not be willing to move Jimmy Butler, but if they are this looks like a realistic package to me. They get a starting SF, a young SG to develop, and a great young PG for when they inevitably move on from the Derrick Rose reclamation project (or push him to a super sub role).

The pick itself could go a number of ways. We still need depth on the wing and I like Luwawu a lot if he's still on the board at 14. Our perimeter defense is already looking a lot better with those two moving into the rotation.

This is cheating because I used this trade last time, but it's important that we clear out cap space and we could subtract Collison and Belinelli without hurting the core of the team. I always like to keep a balance of veterans and young players so there's a chance for the coaching staff to improve the team internally rather than always having to by players every year to get better. The difference in this scenario is that I won't be plugging Stanley Johnson into the starting lineup, instead I'll be using all that cap space to go after Harrison Barnes.

In this scenario we're keeping Koufos who's already familiar with Dave Joerger from his time in Memphis. That leaves us a little thin in the front court but we still have about 4 million to spend on a backup PF -- potentially Quincy Acy. Keeping the effective Cauley-Stein/Cousins paring and dumping Jimmy Butler and Harrison Barnes into the middle of the floor should give Joerger ample opportunity to develop an effective team defense.

The Luwawu pick is really just a stab in the dark because it's impossible to say who will still be on the board. It's also possible we go with a young big here and spend that additional cap space on a veteran SG.

Damn you.

I hate these threads and avoid them like the plague, but I REALLY LIKE this proposal.

 

[Amit149]

The only reason Anderson is on the roster writeup is because he has a player option. Dukan's contract isn't guaranteed so he can sign a new minimum contract after we spend our cap space. He may or may not be on the team next season but he's probably not on the active roster regardless so I didn't see the need to talk about him or figure him into the cap space math.

I was joking

A lot of people here seem to be under the impression that Rudy Gay and Ben McLemore have almost no value. Rudy Gay didn't have a very good year last year (by his standards) but for teams with a hole at SF he's a huge upgrade over roster filler like Mike Dunleavy or an unproven young player like McDermott. He can replace Butler's scoring nearly point for point and while his huge deal deflated his value at the time we acquired him from Toronto, the $13.3 million he's owed next season is a relative bargain especially with the salary cap going up to $92 million. Ben McLemore hasn't really developed here, but he's still just 23 and he's shown flashes of being a successful starter. He had a 41% average from three this season through the end of December before his shooting fell off a cliff and George Karl slashed his minutes. In this trade he allows Chicago to trade Jimmy Butler without opening up a huge hole at SG. And they'd also be getting their PG of the future in Kris Dunn which is the big piece here. He's got a lot of attributes which suggest he'll develop into an elite NBA PG and they're not getting anyone even close to that at #14. That's much better value than rolling the dice on a future pick.

Honestly I think Kris Dunn, Ben McLemore, and Rudy Gay for Jimmy Butler and a flyer on a mid first-round talent is a little bit of an overpay. They're getting 3 starters for 1 starter and what's likely to be a career bench player and Butler isn't a superstar either, just a very good second tier star. We might be better off just keeping Dunn but that means breaking up the Rondo/Cousins duo and as I stated before, I don't want to do that. Talent is important but so too is chemistry. Landing Jimmy Butler seemed like a good compromise to me -- we'd be getting a good enough young talent in return to justify passing on an elite PG prospect while filling our biggest hole in the starting lineup. This is all dependent on Dunn being on the board at #8 though. I don't see Chicago making the trade unless they can solve their PG problem in the process.

An overpay? you compromised with getting him? are you kidding me?

What you basically offered is a pick swap from 8 to 14 (notice that your not saying 3 to 14- 8 is just about the 3rd tier in this draft), Ben who doesn't have a ton of value after he failed to impress in his 3rd season as a starter and Gay who can't (or won't) defend and can't space the floor so it's far hard to build a good team around him.
If you want to see his trade value you can see how Memphis traded him for scraps and Detroit dropped him on us (don't get me wrong, he is a good player- and he has been more efficient than Cousins, but he is not the type of player most teams are looking for).

Butler is one of the best 2 way players in a league lacking solid wing players (which is causing guys like Middleton to have tremendous value and even by your account a guy like Barnes getting near max) and a top 15 player in the NBA- with 5 years left (4 years after this one) on his comfortable contract, his trade value is closer to Cousins than it is to Gay.
Now just imagine what you would answer a NO proposal to give you Tyreke Evans, James Ennis and the 6th pick for Cousins and the 8th pick- I bet you'd jump on that sweet deal- clearly they overpayed.

 

[hrdboild]

I was joking

An overpay? you compromised with getting him? are you kidding me?

What you basically offered is a pick swap from 8 to 14 (notice that your not saying 3 to 14- 8 is just about the 3rd tier in this draft), Ben who doesn't have a ton of value after he failed to impress in his 3rd season as a starter and Gay who can't (or won't) defend and can't space the floor so it's far hard to build a good team around him.
If you want to see his trade value you can see how Memphis traded him for scraps and Detroit dropped him on us (don't get me wrong, he is a good player- and he has been more efficient than Cousins, but he is not the type of player most teams are looking for).

Butler is one of the best 2 way players in a league lacking solid wing players (which is causing guys like Middleton to have tremendous value and even by your account a guy like Barnes getting near max) and a top 15 player in the NBA- with 5 years left (4 years after this one) on his comfortable contract, his trade value is closer to Cousins than it is to Gay.
Now just imagine what you would answer a NO proposal to give you Tyreke Evans, James Ennis and the 6th pick for Cousins and the 8th pick- I bet you'd jump on that sweet deal- clearly they overpayed.

The compromise was on talent -- as I mentioned before I have Kris Dunn third on my draft list right now. I think he's going to be a star PG in the NBA. To pass on drafting a star PG and instead re-sign Rondo I know personally that I have to be getting a star talent some other way just to justify it to myself. Jimmy Butler came to mind for two reasons (1) He is a two-way star at the SG position and an ideal compliment to Rondo and Cousins because he can be the secondary ball handler and create his own shots or he can play off of Rondo and Cousins and of course he's also a great perimeter defender (2) Chicago was shopping him this season due to friction with the head coach and a general desire to clear out "Thibodeau's guys" and start fresh and the report on that is that they aren't looking to rebuild with cap space and multiple picks -- they want an established player and a high draft pick in return. And I know they're looking for a PG because Derrick Rose is obviously not going to be an MVP level player again.

Rudy Gay's trade value was down when we got him from Toronto because he was set to make $18 million that year and $19 million the year after that. Also he was taking 18 shots per game for Toronto that season and making only 39% of them. Since that trade he had the best season and a half of his career (19.7 PER) and then a mediocre year last year. He's signed for $13.3 million next season and the salary cap has gone up from $58 million in 2013-2014 to $92 million for next season. That means his salary accounted for 30% of the salary cap when we got him from Toronto and it will only account for 14% of the salary cap next year. That's a completely different situation. He was getting paid like a franchise player and under performing when we got him. Now he's being paid like a high-level role-player and slightly outperforming his contract.

I read these same kinds of posts every year when I make trade proposals about how unrealistic they are but I wonder if you're paying attention to the actual deals that are getting made. Remember what Kyle Lowry got traded for? Gary Forbes and a protected future first round pick. That's trash and more trash. Remember what Goran Dragic got traded for? The player formerly known as Danny Granger and two future first round picks which are likely to be in the 20s. Remember what James Harden got traded for? Kevin Martin, Jeremy Lamb, and two future picks (which ended up being #12 in 2013 and #21 in 2014). Jimmy Butler is a good player but he's not All-NBA like DeMarcus Cousins. A more comparable trade would be when Memphis traded Rudy Gay to Toronto -- Rudy was a star player at that time, 26 years old coming off 5 straight seasons of 19 and 6 and he'd just signed a long-term deal. Memphis got Ed Davis, Tayshaun Prince, Austin Daye, and a 2nd round pick.

Maybe you missed it, but the whole point of this scenario was to determine what we should do if Kris Dunn is available at #8 in the draft. It's plausible because most of the teams drafting above us already have a PG and have needs elsewhere (LA, Boston, Phoenix, New Orleans, Denver). I can see Minnesota taking Dunn or Philadelphia if they get dropped in the lottery. So while trading up from 14 to 8 doesn't sound like a huge jump on paper, if the player Chicago has third on their draft board is available at #8? Yeah they make that deal. All of those past trades I mentioned before included future picks of unknown value. The ability to pick exactly the player you want is way more valuable than simply stashing a future pick which may not even be in the lottery by the time it's conveyed. Look at the Luol Deng trade Chicago made in 2014 for proof of that. They got Andrew Bynum (bought out for cap space), the right to swap picks with Cleveland in 2015 if Cleveland finished with a higher pick (didn't happen), and our protected pick which remains in limbo. Luol Deng was 27 years and had just played in the last 2 All-Star games and they effectively got nothing in that trade.

Also... the Bulls already called us about Rudy Gay at the trade deadline and they were trying to put together a package for both Rudy Gay and Ben McLemore so if nothing else we know Chicago is interested in those players.

 

[hrdboild]

Damn you.

I hate these threads and avoid them like the plague, but I REALLY LIKE this proposal.

Thanks VF

I actually wrote this all up before the news came out that Dave Joerger was available and we were pursuing him. My ears perked up a bit when I first heard that because I think this would be a perfect roster for him to work with. It's young, super-athletic, and stocked with swarming wing players who'll take to the defensive scheme he employed in Memphis right away. I don't know how realistic this all is -- it's only 3 trades and a free agent signing when you break it down (plus bringing back our own guys) but obviously opinions vary on what is or is not a realistic trade proposal.

 

[randymoss1881]

Didn't read anything in the thread after the title.

I'm just here to say Jimmy Butler ain't walking through that door!!

 

[hrdboild]

Didn't read anything in the thread after the title.

I'm just here to say Jimmy Butler ain't walking through that door!!

 

[VF21]

Didn't read anything in the thread after the title.

I'm just here to say Jimmy Butler ain't walking through that door!!

If you didn't read the thread, your comment doesn't really mean much does it? By nature, trade proposal threads are hypothetical and meant to stir discussion of possibilities. Why shoot it down if you didn't read it?

 

[Amit149]

The compromise was on talent -- as I mentioned before I have Kris Dunn third on my draft list right now. I think he's going to be a star PG in the NBA. To pass on drafting a star PG and instead re-sign Rondo I know personally that I have to be getting a star talent some other way just to justify it to myself. Jimmy Butler came to mind for two reasons (1) He is a two-way star at the SG position and an ideal compliment to Rondo and Cousins because he can be the secondary ball handler and create his own shots or he can play off of Rondo and Cousins and of course he's also a great perimeter defender (2) Chicago was shopping him this season due to friction with the head coach and a general desire to clear out "Thibodeau's guys" and start fresh and the report on that is that they aren't looking to rebuild with cap space and multiple picks -- they want an established player and a high draft pick in return. And I know they're looking for a PG because Derrick Rose is obviously not going to be an MVP level player again.

Rudy Gay's trade value was down when we got him from Toronto because he was set to make $18 million that year and $19 million the year after that. Also he was taking 18 shots per game for Toronto that season and making only 39% of them. Since that trade he had the best season and a half of his career (19.7 PER) and then a mediocre year last year. He's signed for $13.3 million next season and the salary cap has gone up from $58 million in 2013-2014 to $92 million for next season. That means his salary accounted for 30% of the salary cap when we got him from Toronto and it will only account for 14% of the salary cap next year. That's a completely different situation. He was getting paid like a franchise player and under performing when we got him. Now he's being paid like a high-level role-player and slightly outperforming his contract.

I read these same kinds of posts every year when I make trade proposals about how unrealistic they are but I wonder if you're paying attention to the actual deals that are getting made. Remember what Kyle Lowry got traded for? Gary Forbes and a protected future first round pick. That's trash and more trash. Remember what Goran Dragic got traded for? The player formerly known as Danny Granger and two future first round picks which are likely to be in the 20s. Remember what James Harden got traded for? Kevin Martin, Jeremy Lamb, and two future picks (which ended up being #12 in 2013 and #21 in 2014). Jimmy Butler is a good player but he's not All-NBA like DeMarcus Cousins. A more comparable trade would be when Memphis traded Rudy Gay to Toronto -- Rudy was a star player at that time, 26 years old coming off 5 straight seasons of 19 and 6 and he'd just signed a long-term deal. Memphis got Ed Davis, Tayshaun Prince, Austin Daye, and a 2nd round pick.

Maybe you missed it, but the whole point of this scenario was to determine what we should do if Kris Dunn is available at #8 in the draft. It's plausible because most of the teams drafting above us already have a PG and have needs elsewhere (LA, Boston, Phoenix, New Orleans, Denver). I can see Minnesota taking Dunn or Philadelphia if they get dropped in the lottery. So while trading up from 14 to 8 doesn't sound like a huge jump on paper, if the player Chicago has third on their draft board is available at #8? Yeah they make that deal. All of those past trades I mentioned before included future picks of unknown value. The ability to pick exactly the player you want is way more valuable than simply stashing a future pick which may not even be in the lottery by the time it's conveyed. Look at the Luol Deng trade Chicago made in 2014 for proof of that. They got Andrew Bynum (bought out for cap space), the right to swap picks with Cleveland in 2015 if Cleveland finished with a higher pick (didn't happen), and our protected pick which remains in limbo. Luol Deng was 27 years and had just played in the last 2 All-Star games and they effectively got nothing in that trade.

Also... the Bulls already called us about Rudy Gay at the trade deadline and they were trying to put together a package for both Rudy Gay and Ben McLemore so if nothing else we know Chicago is interested in those players.

It's a long post (write shorter ones sometime ) but you do raise some interesting points to talk about...
Before getting into the discussion I want to tell you that I do appreciate the fact you took the time and wrote a plan and went into the numbers.

1. Giving up on Kris Dunn- but if you rank him 3rd and he'll most likely won't be there why is it even in the discussion? you are not giving up on something if you never had it- and what makes you think that the Bulls share your thoughts about him even if he is there?

2. I completely agree that Butler is a good player for our team, or any other team- I challenge you to find a team who couldn't use a young 2 way wing who is a top 15 player in the league... I'll wait... that's the point- you clearly underestimate his trade value since every team who'll have something to offer is going to go after him and you are offering... Gay and pick swaps.

3. If they are looking at a PG and not planning on a rebuild wouldn't they rather actually getting a good and proven PG?

4. All well and good regarding Rudy trade value when he was sent to us- but he was traded for a very low price to Toronto from Memphis (which you didn't mentioned) when his image was better than it is now- and him failing at Toronto and being the 2nd guy on a 30 win team didn't immensely improve his stock- and I agree about the contract and think he does hold some trade value- just not as much as you think.

5. I am paying attention to trade details (just not only to ones involving the Rockets 4 years ago ):

The Rockets made some bad trades to clear cap space but even if we ignore that- Kyle Lowry of 2011-12 was nothing like current Butler he was an OK PG, nothing special and he missed a big chunk of games before he was traded, nothing even close to Butler's status now.

If you want to talk about details the major one regarding Dragic was that he was traded at the last chance before becoming a free agent he basically forced the Suns hand by saying that they can either get something for him or watch him leave in free agency- Butler has 5 years on his contract- how's that even comparable?

Harden is perhaps a good example- but first of all, you are talking about a trade who is considered historically bad- than you have to consider the only reason OKC made that trade is because they knew they couldn't pay him and he'll walk (cheap owners are the worst).
But even in that terrible trade atleast they got 2 first round picks- the only think you giving them is jumping a few spots in the draft to 8- in a draft who I think 90% of people would say has 7 players in the first 2 tiers (Ingram and Simmons tier one. Bender, Dunn, Brown, Murray and Hield in tier 2).

There's a good chance he's All-NBA this year, and I'm not saying he is as good as Cousins- but he is a top 15 player on a 5 year comftorable contract (that's a huge deal- you get Cousins and if in a year he doesn't like you you're ****ed, Butler's contract give you a ton of options) and he is the type of player you can plug to any team- he's not a usage beast and he is a 2 way player wing in a league craving wing players- I'm not saying his value is higher than Cousins (though it is debatable) I'm saying it's far closer to that than it is to Gay's.

By mentioning what Memphis got for Gay you made my point about him- Gay was considered a chucker who doesn't defend, Butler is a 2 way player with good rep- don't convince them to have similar value. look at what Orlando got for "younger Gay" Harris- this kind of players don't command a ton of value.

6. So you are basing all of this on Dunn being such a good prospect teams will give their proven star for him but not good enough so no team will pick him in the first 7 (especially considering the drop at 8)? that's interesting.

7. We might know they are interested but there's a huge difference between trying to get them for scraps in the deadline to trading the one blue chip you have for it, I'm interested in buying a corrolla, I'm not interested in buying a corrolla for a million dollars

8. I guess my point is- if that's all it takes to get Butler, why do you think we'll get him? don't you think NO would give Tyreke and the 6th pick for Butler and the 14th pick in a heartbeat? you think Boston won't package some picks and Smart to get a surefire star? that Phoenix won't pull it off?

You are offering a not particularly desireable veteran and a pick in the 3rd tier for a star (even by your own account) and a late lottery pick- that's not a great offer.

 

[hrdboild]

It's a long post (write shorter ones sometime ) but you do raise some interesting points to talk about...
Before getting into the discussion I want to tell you that I do appreciate the fact you took the time and wrote a plan and went into the numbers.

1. Giving up on Kris Dunn- but if you rank him 3rd and he'll most likely won't be there why is it even in the discussion? you are not giving up on something if you never had it- and what makes you think that the Bulls share your thoughts about him even if he is there?

2. I completely agree that Butler is a good player for our team, or any other team- I challenge you to find a team who couldn't use a young 2 way wing who is a top 15 player in the league... I'll wait... that's the point- you clearly underestimate his trade value since every team who'll have something to offer is going to go after him and you are offering... Gay and pick swaps.

3. If they are looking at a PG and not planning on a rebuild wouldn't they rather actually getting a good and proven PG?

4. All well and good regarding Rudy trade value when he was sent to us- but he was traded for a very low price to Toronto from Memphis (which you didn't mentioned) when his image was better than it is now- and him failing at Toronto and being the 2nd guy on a 30 win team didn't immensely improve his stock- and I agree about the contract and think he does hold some trade value- just not as much as you think.

5. I am paying attention to trade details (just not only to ones involving the Rockets 4 years ago ):

The Rockets made some bad trades to clear cap space but even if we ignore that- Kyle Lowry of 2011-12 was nothing like current Butler he was an OK PG, nothing special and he missed a big chunk of games before he was traded, nothing even close to Butler's status now.

If you want to talk about details the major one regarding Dragic was that he was traded at the last chance before becoming a free agent he basically forced the Suns hand by saying that they can either get something for him or watch him leave in free agency- Butler has 5 years on his contract- how's that even comparable?

Harden is perhaps a good example- but first of all, you are talking about a trade who is considered historically bad- than you have to consider the only reason OKC made that trade is because they knew they couldn't pay him and he'll walk (cheap owners are the worst).
But even in that terrible trade atleast they got 2 first round picks- the only think you giving them is jumping a few spots in the draft to 8- in a draft who I think 90% of people would say has 7 players in the first 2 tiers (Ingram and Simmons tier one. Bender, Dunn, Brown, Murray and Hield in tier 2).

There's a good chance he's All-NBA this year, and I'm not saying he is as good as Cousins- but he is a top 15 player on a 5 year comftorable contract (that's a huge deal- you get Cousins and if in a year he doesn't like you you're ****ed, Butler's contract give you a ton of options) and he is the type of player you can plug to any team- he's not a usage beast and he is a 2 way player wing in a league craving wing players- I'm not saying his value is higher than Cousins (though it is debatable) I'm saying it's far closer to that than it is to Gay's.

By mentioning what Memphis got for Gay you made my point about him- Gay was considered a chucker who doesn't defend, Butler is a 2 way player with good rep- don't convince them to have similar value. look at what Orlando got for "younger Gay" Harris- this kind of players don't command a ton of value.

6. So you are basing all of this on Dunn being such a good prospect teams will give their proven star for him but not good enough so no team will pick him in the first 7 (especially considering the drop at 8)? that's interesting.

7. We might know they are interested but there's a huge difference between trying to get them for scraps in the deadline to trading the one blue chip you have for it, I'm interested in buying a corrolla, I'm not interested in buying a corrolla for a million dollars

8. I guess my point is- if that's all it takes to get Butler, why do you think we'll get him? don't you think NO would give Tyreke and the 6th pick for Butler and the 14th pick in a heartbeat? you think Boston won't package some picks and Smart to get a surefire star? that Phoenix won't pull it off?

You are offering a not particularly desireable veteran and a pick in the 3rd tier for a star (even by your own account) and a late lottery pick- that's not a great offer.

At this point I think we've each explained our reasoning -- it's just a subjective difference of opinion on player values. You clearly think Ben McLemore has zero value and I disagree. I think you made some good points too -- especially about the mitigating factors which lowered the value of Harden and Dragic at the time they were traded. But I also think there's a general perception that "Player X" won't be traded for anything less than an amazing package of talent and then these actual deals happen and it's almost always underwhelming. Minnesota got Wiggins for Kevin Love because Cleveland was desperate to appease Lebron but everything else they got in that deal was a bust. The Harden trade wasn't considered terrible at the time, but in retrospect all they got out of that was Steven Adams. That's why I'm so against a DeMarcus Cousins trade. People fantasize about getting Ben Simmons and additional picks but that's not what will happen. The most you can expect for moving a star player is a borderline All-Star on a bad deal and some late first round picks.

I already explained why Kris Dunn might slip to 8. Just because I have him ranked as the third best prospect doesn't mean every team does. I had Stanley Johnson ranked 3rd last season and he was drafted at #8. I had Myles Turner ranked 4th and he was drafted at #11. And for teams that recently drafted a PG (Boston, LA, Denver) or have two signed to huge contracts (Phoenix) or simply have too many other needs (New Orleans) I can see them looking in other directions. I don't think the odds are very good that he's on the board at #8 but that wasn't the point. There's a chance he is there and I wanted to construct a scenario around what we could do if he is. Certainly other teams will make offers too, I just don't agree with you that a top pick + a very productive veteran scorer on a team friendly deal + an athletic young SG with potential as a knockdown shooter is an insulting offer. But then I also know that I tend to rate Rudy and Ben higher than most do here. I don't think we need to trade either one and I expect both to bounce back next season whether it's on the Kings or some other team. If the only hang-up for you is the pick swap, I could let that part of it go. At the time I wrote this whole idea up I looked at what was going out in the Butler trade and I thought it was an overpay so I added the pick coming back.

With all of the deals I'm proposing, I'm not just pulling names out of a hat either. I deliberately construct hypothetical deals around players who have already been rumored to be on the trading block recently and I try to slot in players that fit needs for those teams. (well, maybe not Stanley Johnson but I was projecting based on their urgency to compete for a championship and their mid-season trade for Tobias Harris). I think if you take a look at what Chicago's roster would be after this trade -- they already have Pau Gasol, Taj Gibson, Nikola Mirotic, and Bobby Portis so their strength is in the frontcourt. They'd be losing their best player but they would be getting three players in return that all fit holes in their lineup. Butler and Rose didn't fit all that well together this season. If Rose moves to SG alongside Dunn at PG, Gay starts at SF and Ben comes off the bench they have a much more balanced roster. They fill both of their biggest needs (starting SF and PG of the future) and get to try and develop a young SG to replace Jimmy Butler who optimistically could develop into a similar type of player. Maybe management decides they'd rather run a more traditional lineup with better shooters on the wings. Maybe they prioritize the PG position. Maybe they're not planning to re-sign Rose after this season and want to get younger. Those are all reasons they might make this deal.

Also, a minor point but Jimmy Butler has 4 years remaining on his contract not 5 years and the last one is a player option (which he will almost certainly opt out of since the salary cap is expected to go up over 100 million by then) so really he's only signed for 3 years. That's only 1 more year than DeMarcus. If he's unhappy with the direction the team is going after this season, they're working under a limited time frame to make him happy just like we are with Boogie

 

[twslam07]

I think the only thing realistic about this scenario is MAYBE Curry at 2 years/6 mil

1. #8/Gay/McLemore isn't enough to bring back Butler let alone Butler & #14. If we want Butler, both Cauley-Stein and #8 are going to have to be in the deal if we're keeping Cousins in Sac.
2. I think you vastly underestimate Stanley Johnson's value. Detroit loves him and he's more valuable than Collison by himself let alone that Collison will be expiring & Johnson is locked up on a rookie contract...
3. You have Harrison Barnes at $18 mil. Some team is going to max him this offseason. He's knock down 3s, defend multiple positions, score a bit, and he's young & athletic. Plus with the cap going up, maxing someone today won't be seen as maxing them the following year.
4. Rondo & Butler together? I don't like the fit. I'd rather have a PG who has the ability to play off the ball in order to maximize Butler.

If we're wanting Butler, we should be doing a deal like this:

------------------------------------------------------------------------

CHI Gets:#6
#8
NOP's 2018 1st Round Pick (Top 10 protected)
Willie Cauley-Stein
Ben McLemore
Dante Cunningham
Marco Belinelli
Omer Asik

CHI Gives:Jimmy Butler
Taj Gibson

------------------------------------------------------------------------

NOP Gets:Rudy Gay
Kosta Koufos
Taj Gibson

NOP Gives:#6
NOP's 2018 1st Round Pick (Top 10 protected)
Omer Asik
Quincy Pondexter
Toney Douglas
Dante Cunningham

------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAC Gets:Jimmy Butler
Quincy Pondexter
Toney Douglas

SAC Gives:#8
Rudy Gay
Willie Cauley-Stein
Ben McLemore
Kosta Koufos
Marco Belinelli

------------------------------------------------------------------------

That leaves us with the following lineup:

PG - Collison/Douglas/
SG - Butler/Pondexter/Anderson
SF - Casspi/Butler
PF -
C - Cousins

By this time, we'd have ~$38 mil in cap space. That gives us the ability to max anyone even Durant if he wants to make a big 3 with Butler & Cousins (wouldn't that be sweet!). But if not Durant, we can pursue others like Horford, Batum, or Conley. Horford would probably be my first choice. A Horford /Cousins froncourt instantly becomes the best frontcourt in the league and give us a way to combat small-ball. Having two bigs who can score on the block against smaller opponents, find the open man out of the the post, and knock down open jumpers. They also would would clean up anything defensively on the other end of the floor. There's a lot to like about a Horford/Cousins frontcourt, and considering we just acquired a coach that coached a successful team featuring Randolph & Gasol, I would say we have the right man for the job.

If you max Horford, you're left with ~14.5 mil in cap space. I'd try to sign S. Hill for about $6 mil a year, Nicholson to $5 mil a year, Aldrich to $3.5 mil a year, R. Price to the min, Udrih to the min, & Copeland to the min.

PG - T. Douglas (18 min) / Collison (30 min) / R. Price / Udrih
SG - J. Butler (36 min) / Pondexter (12 min) / J. Anderson
SF - Casspi (18 min) / S. Hill (22 min)/ Pondexter (8 min) / C. Butler
PF - Horford (20 min) / Nicholson (18 min) / Casspi (10 min) / Copeland
C - Cousins (36 min) / Horford (12 min) / Aldrich

Cousins - 36 min
Butler - 36 min
Horford - 32 min
Collison - 30 min
Casspi - 28 min
Hill - 22 min
Pondexter - 20 min
Douglas - 18 min
Nicholson - 18 min

 

[whozit]

I think the only thing realistic about this scenario is MAYBE Curry at 2 years/6 mil

1. #8/Gay/McLemore isn't enough to bring back Butler let alone Butler & #14. If we want Butler, both Cauley-Stein and #8 are going to have to be in the deal if we're keeping Cousins in Sac.
2. I think you vastly underestimate Stanley Johnson's value. Detroit loves him and he's more valuable than Collison by himself let alone that Collison will be expiring & Johnson is locked up on a rookie contract...
3. You have Harrison Barnes at $18 mil. Some team is going to max him this offseason. He's knock down 3s, defend multiple positions, score a bit, and he's young & athletic. Plus with the cap going up, maxing someone today won't be seen as maxing them the following year.
4. Rondo & Butler together? I don't like the fit. I'd rather have a PG who has the ability to play off the ball in order to maximize Butler.

If we're wanting Butler, we should be doing a deal like this:

------------------------------------------------------------------------

CHI Gets:#6
#8
NOP's 2018 1st Round Pick (Top 10 protected)
Willie Cauley-Stein
Ben McLemore
Dante Cunningham
Marco Belinelli
Omer Asik

CHI Gives:Jimmy Butler
Taj Gibson

------------------------------------------------------------------------

NOP Gets:Rudy Gay
Kosta Koufos
Taj Gibson

NOP Gives:#6
NOP's 2018 1st Round Pick (Top 10 protected)
Omer Asik
Quincy Pondexter
Toney Douglas
Dante Cunningham

------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAC Gets:Jimmy Butler
Quincy Pondexter
Toney Douglas

SAC Gives:#8
Rudy Gay
Willie Cauley-Stein
Ben McLemore
Kosta Koufos
Marco Belinelli

------------------------------------------------------------------------

That leaves us with the following lineup:

PG - Collison/Douglas/
SG - Butler/Pondexter/Anderson
SF - Casspi/Butler
PF -
C - Cousins

By this time, we'd have ~$38 mil in cap space. That gives us the ability to max anyone even Durant if he wants to make a big 3 with Butler & Cousins (wouldn't that be sweet!). But if not Durant, we can pursue others like Horford, Batum, or Conley. Horford would probably be my first choice. A Horford /Cousins froncourt instantly becomes the best frontcourt in the league and give us a way to combat small-ball. Having two bigs who can score on the block against smaller opponents, find the open man out of the the post, and knock down open jumpers. They also would would clean up anything defensively on the other end of the floor. There's a lot to like about a Horford/Cousins frontcourt, and considering we just acquired a coach that coached a successful team featuring Randolph & Gasol, I would say we have the right man for the job.

If you max Horford, you're left with ~14.5 mil in cap space. I'd try to sign S. Hill for about $6 mil a year, Nicholson to $5 mil a year, Aldrich to $3.5 mil a year, R. Price to the min, Udrih to the min, & Copeland to the min.

PG - T. Douglas (18 min) / Collison (30 min) / R. Price / Udrih
SG - J. Butler (36 min) / Pondexter (12 min) / J. Anderson
SF - Casspi (18 min) / S. Hill (22 min)/ Pondexter (8 min) / C. Butler
PF - Horford (20 min) / Nicholson (18 min) / Casspi (10 min) / Copeland
C - Cousins (36 min) / Horford (12 min) / Aldrich

Cousins - 36 min
Butler - 36 min
Horford - 32 min
Collison - 30 min
Casspi - 28 min
Hill - 22 min
Pondexter - 20 min
Douglas - 18 min
Nicholson - 18 min

Might want Butler but NOT at that price.

 

[Amit149]

I think the only thing realistic about this scenario is MAYBE Curry at 2 years/6 mil

1. #8/Gay/McLemore isn't enough to bring back Butler let alone Butler & #14. If we want Butler, both Cauley-Stein and #8 are going to have to be in the deal if we're keeping Cousins in Sac.
2. I think you vastly underestimate Stanley Johnson's value. Detroit loves him and he's more valuable than Collison by himself let alone that Collison will be expiring & Johnson is locked up on a rookie contract...
3. You have Harrison Barnes at $18 mil. Some team is going to max him this offseason. He's knock down 3s, defend multiple positions, score a bit, and he's young & athletic. Plus with the cap going up, maxing someone today won't be seen as maxing them the following year.
4. Rondo & Butler together? I don't like the fit. I'd rather have a PG who has the ability to play off the ball in order to maximize Butler.

If we're wanting Butler, we should be doing a deal like this:

------------------------------------------------------------------------

CHI Gets:#6
#8
NOP's 2018 1st Round Pick (Top 10 protected)
Willie Cauley-Stein
Ben McLemore
Dante Cunningham
Marco Belinelli
Omer Asik

CHI Gives:Jimmy Butler
Taj Gibson

------------------------------------------------------------------------

NOP Gets:Rudy Gay
Kosta Koufos
Taj Gibson

NOP Gives:#6
NOP's 2018 1st Round Pick (Top 10 protected)
Omer Asik
Quincy Pondexter
Toney Douglas
Dante Cunningham

------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAC Gets:Jimmy Butler
Quincy Pondexter
Toney Douglas

SAC Gives:#8
Rudy Gay
Willie Cauley-Stein
Ben McLemore
Kosta Koufos
Marco Belinelli

------------------------------------------------------------------------

That leaves us with the following lineup:

PG - Collison/Douglas/
SG - Butler/Pondexter/Anderson
SF - Casspi/Butler
PF -
C - Cousins

By this time, we'd have ~$38 mil in cap space. That gives us the ability to max anyone even Durant if he wants to make a big 3 with Butler & Cousins (wouldn't that be sweet!). But if not Durant, we can pursue others like Horford, Batum, or Conley. Horford would probably be my first choice. A Horford /Cousins froncourt instantly becomes the best frontcourt in the league and give us a way to combat small-ball. Having two bigs who can score on the block against smaller opponents, find the open man out of the the post, and knock down open jumpers. They also would would clean up anything defensively on the other end of the floor. There's a lot to like about a Horford/Cousins frontcourt, and considering we just acquired a coach that coached a successful team featuring Randolph & Gasol, I would say we have the right man for the job.

If you max Horford, you're left with ~14.5 mil in cap space. I'd try to sign S. Hill for about $6 mil a year, Nicholson to $5 mil a year, Aldrich to $3.5 mil a year, R. Price to the min, Udrih to the min, & Copeland to the min.

PG - T. Douglas (18 min) / Collison (30 min) / R. Price / Udrih
SG - J. Butler (36 min) / Pondexter (12 min) / J. Anderson
SF - Casspi (18 min) / S. Hill (22 min)/ Pondexter (8 min) / C. Butler
PF - Horford (20 min) / Nicholson (18 min) / Casspi (10 min) / Copeland
C - Cousins (36 min) / Horford (12 min) / Aldrich

Cousins - 36 min
Butler - 36 min
Horford - 32 min
Collison - 30 min
Casspi - 28 min
Hill - 22 min
Pondexter - 20 min
Douglas - 18 min
Nicholson - 18 min

I'm conflicted when reading this, on the one hand we are giving up here on WCS and the 8th along with Gay and Ben which is a heavy price.
I don't think the Pelicans would do that trade but if we cut the middleman and just go with- Gay, WCS, Ben and 8th for Butler and than trade KK and Marco for cap space our roster would be:

Cousins, Butler, DC, Casspi, Anderson and 50 million in cap space... if you are all-in this season that's intriguing, in that scenario you are banking on FA, but you have 2 top 15 players on the roster, a young promising coach and a ton of money to spend so there is no reason you won't succeed in getting some quality guys. if you can get some decent FA it can be a great roster even if we miss out on Horford...