Well there's ideal scenarios and then there's what actually happens. I've given up on speculating about what actually happens, but I'm pretty sure (based on past history) that I'm not going to like it. In an ideal scenario where we make decisions not out of desperation or a lack of viable options though, there's no reason for Afflalo to be back next year. Is there a chance that neither Bogdanovic nor Richardson is ready to be part of an NBA roster next season? Sure. But I think the odds of that happening are much lower than the odds of Afflalo re-emerging himself as a valuable player at this point in his career. If you tell me that Richardson and Bogdanovic will both be busts, I would rather we trade for a SG than pick up his option and have that player split minutes with Temple.
I wouldn't go as far to say "there's no reason for Afflalo to be back next year" when I have already provided a few. Does that mean it's likely that he will be back next year? No, but those who deal in absolutes can find themselves looking foolish (not saying you're foolish as I always value your input).
Some of your trade targets are unrealistic. Taj Gibson is the starting PF in Chicago and they're a playoff team. Orlando wouldn't have traded Oladipo for McLemore and Portis so they're not going to give up Ibaka for them now. If you want to trade for a starter, Rudy Gay probably needs to be involved. Please don't take this personally, but I've come to realize that signing a "Great Free Agent" at any position is a joke. It's never happened here. Until it does, it shouldn't be a part of anyone's plan. It should go on the shelf with "winning the #1 overall pick" as rebuild options we agree to avoid. We may be able to sign a serviceable starter while other teams are pursuing a superstar at the same position. That's realistically our ceiling. In combination with other moves that could be enough to propel us forward (see: Vlade in 1998 for instance).
I wouldn't go as far as to say they are unrealistic. The deadline deal I proposed seems pretty fair. I would think that Orlando might need a little more back, but that's about it. I'm very well aware Chicago is a playoff team, but they also have a Rondo, Wade, Butler perimeter. Having a guy like Ibaka out there instead of Gibson would only help that spacing. You could even go with a Mirotic/McDermott/Casspi & Ibaka frontcourt to give those guys two excellent 3pt shooters to help space the floor. I also think you are overvaluing Ibaka. He hasn't been playing as well and the Bulls would only be getting a half year rental (vs. when ORL traded for him they were getting him for a year). It's unwise to think that a player's value doesn't change in the middle of a season.
I consider Vlade a great FA signing, so to me, it has happened. And to this point, I'm not talking about this very next offseason. This is looking at 2018 or 2019 when the culture has been established, the reputation has been changed, and we've been a consistent playoff team for a few years. That's not unrealistic.
Big picture wise: I've never been in the Fire Vlade camp and I still think the jury is out on both of his drafts. I think there were better options than Willie but he can still be a valuable role-player if he adjusts his attitude -- big men with defensive impact are always a valuable commodity. If Bogdanovic, Richardson, and Labisierre all develop into solid NBA players than this last draft looks pretty damn good. That's where my hope comes from right now so I would be against any moves which hinder their development. I've always been consistent in my belief that talent wins -- chemistry comes with the winning. Cousins is a great start but we're going to continue to struggle until Vlade manages to put some high-level talent around him. We have some trade-able assets (Rudy, Ben, Darren, Kosta, even Willie) and we may or may not have another high draft pick this year. Somehow/someway those assets need to be converted into 2 or 3 great players. You don't always know where those guys are coming from (no one batted an eye when Golden State drafted Klay Thompson and Draymond Green) but we need to add that level of player here to have success. And it's not going to happen in Free Agency.
I certainly see your point and agree to it to some extent, but it's not without risk. Gay has played like an all-star so far this year, and can be a big part of this team going forward. Is it less risky to try and resign him next year or trade him for a mid to late 1st and try to draft a player as good as him? And if we do draft a player who becomes as good or better than him, is it in time to persuade Cousins to stay in Sacramento?
There are so many variable with this team right now. So many things to consider, and the difficult thing for us fans is we don't really have a good gauge on any of it.
- What is Cousins really thinking when it comes to FA? Does he need us to be a playoff team to resign? Is he okay if we push towards adding more youth/young assets in hope to develop them as good/great players next to him? Would he get fed up if he's having to wait for the youth to develop?
- Is Gay open to resigning with us? Was the report just letting us know that he'll opt out and not necessarily leave town?
- Will Collison leave the first chance he gets? Would he prefer to stay here considering we have a starting spot for him?
Again, it's really hard for us to be so definitive in our course of action considering we don't have the most knowledge to what the answer would be to these questions. We can make assumptions and treat it like fact (as Blob likes to do), but when it comes down to it, we really can't fault anyone for what they think is the best course of action because it could be the right move based on the answer to above questions.
I have fun going down the multiple paths and basically creating contingency plans, but I'm not going to sit here and pretend like I know exactly what the Kings should do with so many things up in the air.
EDIT: I will say that trading for youth does seem like a decent option no matter what the answers to those questions are.
- If Gay/Collison are wanting to leave, we have very little hope at putting a solid team around Cousins next season (in his contract year) because (right now) we're not an attractive destination for FAs, so we'd really be bleeding talent.
- If they would be open to staying, there's still no guarantee that we'd be able to add more/enough talent (even with a Cousins) extension) to ever become a top team in our conference.
- That same sentiment goes with adding youth/picks as there is no guarantee we'll get a star or great player to elevate this team's talent level enough.
- However, if we do fall short at finding another star through the draft, those pieces are at least young, on a rookie contract, and could still (possibly) develop into solid players in time, and having those young players is good when we'd move Cousins and start rebuilding.
I'd need to have a serious talk with Cousins about the state of the team and his thoughts. I'd probably discuss how far he thinks this team can go with the current core, and what his thoughts are if the team were to try and cash in and add some more potential through young assets & picks. Depending on his answer and the current state of the team, these would be my actions:
- If Cousins is not feeling the youth movement/would say that he'd likely leave AND we are not looking like a competitive/playoff team, I'd trade Cousins & all of our vets for youth & picks and tank the rest of the year to keep our 2017 pick.
- If Cousins is not feeling the youth movement/would say that he'd likely leave AND we are looking like a competitive/playoff team, I'd talk with Gay & Collison to see if they are open to resigning. If they are open to it, I'd continue with the current team as constructed and look to make improvements through trade (either at the deadline or offseason) or through FA next year.
- If Cousins is not feeling the youth movement/would say that he'd likely leave AND we are looking like a competitive/playoff team, I'd talk with Gay & Collison to see if they are open to resigning. If they are not open to it, I'd trade Cousins & all of our vets for youth & picks and tank the rest of the year to keep our 2017 pick.
- If Cousins is feeling the youth movement/would say that he'd be open to trying to build a better team through youth & picks AND we are not looking like a competitive/playoff team, I'd trade any of our vets (except Cousins) for youth & picks and tank the rest of the year to keep our 2017 pick.
- If Cousins is feeling the youth movement/would say that he'd be open to trying to build a better team through youth & picks AND we are looking like a competitive/playoff team, I'd talk with Gay & Collison to see if they are open to resigning. If they are not open to it, I'd trade any of our vets (except Cousins) for youth & picks and tank the rest of the year to keep our 2017 pick.
- If Cousins is feeling the youth movement/would say that he'd be open to trying to build a better team through youth & picks AND we are looking like a competitive/playoff team, I'd talk with Gay & Collison to see if they are open to resigning. If they are open to it, I'd continue with the current team as constructed and look to make improvements through trade (either at the deadline or offseason) or through FA next year while being open to add youth/potential where I can.
If it does come down to moving our vets for youth (with Cousins on board with the plan & willing to build the team this way), I'd probably make the following trades:
- Gay, Collison, & McLemore for Bobby Portis, Jerian Grant, Rajon Rondo, & Chicago's 2017 1st (Kings get 3 young assets in Portis, Grant, & a 2017 pick while Chicago gets an excellent PG complement to Wade & Butler in Collison while also getting a super sixth man option who can play smallball PF next to Wade & Butler in Gay. McLemore gives them more SG depth rather than having to rely on Valentine in case of injuries or foul trouble)
- Casspi for Delon Wright (Kings get a young PG who showed well last year and Toronto gets a useful SF/PF who can help space the floor for guys like Lowry, DeRozan, & Valanciunas all while giving up a guy out of their rotation)
- Koufos for Tyler Zeller & Rade Zagorac (Kings get out of Koufos long term salary & pick up a euro SF prospect and Boston gets a big defensive C that can help with their rebounding issues and possibly push Horford to PF in the starting lineup)
Those trades would leave us with this roster next year if we waive Afflalo & Tolliver and Barnes picks up his option:
PG - Wright / Grant
SG - Temple / Bogdanovic / Richardson
SF - Barnes / Zagorac
PF - Portis / Labissiere
C - Cousins / Cauley-Stein / Papagiannis
*SAC 2017 1st
*CHI 2017 1st
**~$49 mil in cap space (doesn't include 2017 1st round pick draft holds or Bogdanovic's & Zagorac's future contract)
I'd probably throw a pretty hefty offer sheet at Otto Porter next year to lock in our SF next to Cousins. Then it's a matter of developing our PGs (Fultz/Ball/Smith/Fox/
Ntilikina, Wright, Grant), wings (Portis, Bogdanovic, Richardson, Zagorac), & big men (Portis, Cauley-Stein, Labissiere, Papagiannis) around Cousins.
If Cousins signed an extension with all of that youth, potential, & cap space around him, I'd be pretty darn excited about our future. Fox/Richardson/Porter/Labissiere/Cousins w/ a bench of Wright/Bogdanovic/Portis/Cauley-Stein
could be a very, very talented team.