Here's the thing about Doncic. I can't find one person I respect that scouts college basketball along with European basketball that doesn't have Doncic as their number one pick in the next draft. If your talking upside, Bagley is the top choice of almost everyone, with Ayton coming in a close second. But when your talking overall talent, there's not one other player in the next draft right now that even comes close to Doncic, and I happen to agree with that. Doncic right now, talent wise, is where every other player in the draft aspires to be. Both Cole Zwicker and Sean Derenthal both say that he's a legit 6'8", and that no one in the coming draft has the skill set that Doncic has. I respect both those guys opinions.
I've watched a ton of game film, and many entire games with Doncic, and offensively, he's one of, if not the most skilled player at his age that I've have ever seen. He makes passes that he shouldn't be able to make. It's as though he reading the minds of the defenders. He's a very good shooter. If there's a knock on his shot, it would be that his release is a tad slow, but it hasn't stopped him from getting his shot off. He doesn't have Jamal Crawford handles, or an explosive first step, but he can get anywhere he wants on the floor, with head fakes, hesitation moves, and the ability to score from anywhere on the floor. His basketball IQ is off the charts.
Of course the looming question is can he defend. I guess we'll see. I would say his lateral quickness is NBA average, but he seems to make up for any lack of athleticism with being smart and knowing his opponent. Personally, I think if who ever drafts him plays him at SF, he'll be fine. But if they decide to play him at SG, they could run into trouble. He's deceptively strong, and is very good at holding position in a post up situation, while at the other end of the court, he's very good at posting up smaller players. In short, he may not have the highest ceiling in the next draft, but without a doubt he has the highest floor with Porter coming in a close second.
For me, finishing up Doncic profile will come down to measurements. I have yet to see an official measurement of him. There's going to be a big difference between being 6'7 with a 6'9 wingspan and being 6'8 with a 6'11 wingspan. I want to know if he has the length to play SF. At SF, he'll be playing PG anyways, but even in today's position-less basketball, you still need a position to guard. I have serious doubts that he'll be able to defend SGs, but I think he can fair ok on SFs if he has the length.
His size will also be important for offense in determining who guards him. I hate hypotheticals, but let's say he's 6'7 with a 6'9 wingspan. That's not big enough to guard SFs, so he'll be guarding SGs. He'll have troubles guarding SGs because they're too fast for him. On the other end, he'll have troubles penetrating against SGs because they're too fast. Yes he can get stronger and just pound his way in against SGs, but adding strength means he'll gets slower..which means more defensive problems. Here, you would really be hoping that he develops great ball handling to makeup for his lack of speed.
HOWEVER, let's say he's 6'8 with a 6'11 wingspan. From that, he'll continue to bulk up and add more strength. He'll have the length, strength, and quickness to defend SFs. He'll be quick enough to the point where they can't blow by him. He'll have enough strength to contain them. On the other end, he's quick enough to blow by SFs. He'll also be strong enough to the point where he can bully smaller SFs with his additional 20+lbs. Here, you don't have to put pressure on him to develop his ball handling. He's got the athleticism to make up for it since he'll be defended by heavier SFs and vise-versa.
In an ideal world, the bigger Doncic is, the more successful he'll be in the NBA. I think he's just a step too slow for the SG position.
Even with all of the mystery around his size, Doncic is the most skilled 18yearold we've seen in over a decade. He's the most complete player in this draft. We still have a lot of college season left for players to slide up and down. If Ayton shows that he can't dominate the same way against bigger and more mature players, he probably slides down a few slots. If Bagley's skills only extend so far to where his motor can't make it up, he'll slide down too.
Imo, eventually, I think Doncic will solidify himself as the #1 prospect when the college guys start showing their flaws. We have over 90+ game tapes on Doncic in the past 2 years in Europe. Whereas, we only have 7 games of the other guys in the college level. When I personally scout prospects, I don't take account anything I see before college. Porter Jr is the only exception because we have no choice lol
Right now, I have Doncic and Ayton at the same level. This can change between now and the draft though. A whole 7 months before the draft