An offseason plan

[funkykingston]

@funkykingston I like your offseason plan, but I'm not sure about offering big money to Harrison Barnes. He looks like he will be a average to good player from what I've seen of him. Nothing to suggest star status. I'd actually rather have Rudy than Harrison Barnes. At least Rudy can create a shot.

I'm not super high on Barnes either. But compared to Rudy (1) he's a much better and more consistent defender (2) he's not a ball stopper and (3) he's a better outside shooter. All things that play well off of Cousins. He's also only 23 vs Rudy being 29.

There are a number of ways the Kings can move forward. They could just draft the BPA, re-sign Rondo and see if Joerger can do a lot more with the same lineup.

Or they can let Rondo walk, make a few trades and build around Cousins.

They could even blow the whole thing up and start from scratch.

I think the third option is the least likely but I'm curious which of the first two the Kings are leaning towards.

I doubt we'll get much of an inkling of their plans until draft night. But personally I don't think Rondo/Gay/Cauley-Stein/Cousins is a good fit regardless of who is at SG. All but WCS need the ball in their hands a lot to be effective. Rudy is better off with Collison at PG. Rondo is better off with guys who can catch and shoot or catch and finish.

So I think either Rondo walks or Gay is traded. Or both. We'll see but I doubt both Rudy and Rajon are back next season.

 

[ElRey]

I have a feeling that Ken Cantenella has an extremely good sense at what value contracts will be in the next two years. This started this past year when a player like Aminu got $8MM per season and people thought that was crazy. I have a feeling that we will sign a FA that we all think is a huge over pay, but then we will pick someone up as well that will seem like an underpay in comparison.

FYI, I don't see anyway Conley is coming here. I think his Max contract value is $25MM per season. That is over 1/4 of our cap space on a PG that is probably just at the crescendo of his career. Paying a guy like that 100MM+ for 4 years seems to not be feasible unless we cut bait with all our traceable assets for cap space.

Yeah agree, if we going to spend big money it has to be on a YOUNG guy.

 

[lwc]

The question of the day: Will big name free agents sign in Sacramento? Who was the last big free agent to sign here?

Darren Collison?

Who was before that? Big time free agents do not sign here. However, seeing that Vlade got a premier coach to sign here as well as 2nd and 3rd tier guys like Kosta and Marco, hopefully it means that he can swing someone here. The key for me is that we do not need a superstar. I honestly believe that the Kings are one more solid ---> great defensive 2 or 3 away from being a playoff team. Ben McLemore frustrates the stuffing out of me because he is quite possibly the hardest worker on the team. Malone and Boogie both speak of his work ethic. Basically the first words out of Dave Joerger's mouth was the DMC and Ben were already in the gym working out for next season. Ben was working before and after practice with Chris Jent on his shooting. Ben has the athleticism, the pure stroke, and the work ethic to be a great 3-n-D player.

As a matter of fact, that season in which he was working with Christ Jent (great shooting coach BTW) he was a 36% 3-point shooter in only his 2nd season with a large amount of shots (essentially 400 3's). However, this season his per 36 numbers were pretty similar except his turnovers and fouls were at a much higher clip.

I hear a lot of articles and rumbling about how the Kings should pursue Kent Bazemore in the offseason. Bazemore has offensive ratings and defensive ratings, respectively of 96-102 while Ben's are 100-112. Broken down quite simply it means that if Ben and Kent play equal number of possessions against the same team Ben will be 6 points worse that Kent would be. Basically, if Kent is playing, the opponent scores 6 less points per game than if Ben plays. That may not sound like much but that is the difference between winning and losing. To put in in perspective, DeMarcus Cousins and Dwight Howard have defensive ratings of 103 and 104, respectively. (Yes, statistically, DMC is a better defensive player than D12 but don't tell the national media that) and Bazemore has a defensive rating of 102. Pretty solid.

Bazemore seems to be a reasonable contract player to make a run at this offseason. I've seen figures like 4 years $12-14 million thrown around. To me, that is entirely reasonable for what he can bring right now. Grant it, that means if we sign him, Rondo has to leave or take far less than the max.

 

[lwc]

So I think either Rondo walks or Gay is traded. Or both. We'll see but I doubt both Rudy and Rajon are back next season.

Bingo.

I'm not super high on Barnes either. But compared to Rudy (1) he's a much better and more consistent defender (2) he's not a ball stopper and (3) he's a better outside shooter. All things that play well off of Cousins. He's also only 23 vs Rudy being 29.

Rudy Gay's offensive-defensive rating = 104-108 (net -4)
Harrison Barnes offensive-defensive rating = 114-107 (net +7)

Therefore, Barnes is +11 better overall player by those standards.
How much of both's numbers need to be adjusted for team play? Maybe a point or two on both sides but not 11 total points. Overall, Barnes is younger and the better player.


Looking at other stats to be fair, Barnes is the better shooter in literally every category except free throws.

 

[ElRey]

The question of the day: Will big name free agents sign in Sacramento? Who was the last big free agent to sign here?

Darren Collison?

Who was before that? Big time free agents do not sign here. However, seeing that Vlade got a premier coach to sign here as well as 2nd and 3rd tier guys like Kosta and Marco, hopefully it means that he can swing someone here. The key for me is that we do not need a superstar. I honestly believe that the Kings are one more solid ---> great defensive 2 or 3 away from being a playoff team. Ben McLemore frustrates the stuffing out of me because he is quite possibly the hardest worker on the team. Malone and Boogie both speak of his work ethic. Basically the first words out of Dave Joerger's mouth was the DMC and Ben were already in the gym working out for next season. Ben was working before and after practice with Chris Jent on his shooting. Ben has the athleticism, the pure stroke, and the work ethic to be a great 3-n-D player.

As a matter of fact, that season in which he was working with Christ Jent (great shooting coach BTW) he was a 36% 3-point shooter in only his 2nd season with a large amount of shots (essentially 400 3's). However, this season his per 36 numbers were pretty similar except his turnovers and fouls were at a much higher clip.

I hear a lot of articles and rumbling about how the Kings should pursue Kent Bazemore in the offseason. Bazemore has offensive ratings and defensive ratings, respectively of 96-102 while Ben's are 100-112. Broken down quite simply it means that if Ben and Kent play equal number of possessions against the same team Ben will be 6 points worse that Kent would be. Basically, if Kent is playing, the opponent scores 6 less points per game than if Ben plays. That may not sound like much but that is the difference between winning and losing. To put in in perspective, DeMarcus Cousins and Dwight Howard have defensive ratings of 103 and 104, respectively. (Yes, statistically, DMC is a better defensive player than D12 but don't tell the national media that) and Bazemore has a defensive rating of 102. Pretty solid.

Bazemore seems to be a reasonable contract player to make a run at this offseason. I've seen figures like 4 years $12-14 million thrown around. To me, that is entirely reasonable for what he can bring right now. Grant it, that means if we sign him, Rondo has to leave or take far less than the max.

Bazemore would a good pickup on a reasonable contract. Definitely an upgrade over Ben.

 

[Gilles]

Player's DRtg is a barely useful stat, that heavily punishes guys, who do not produce defensive stats, especially defensive rebounds. Bruce Bowen always had crappy DRtg, while Boozer looked fantastic. This statistic is also tied to team DRtg as a baseline, so a bad defender on a good defensive team has higher one than a good defender playing for a bad defensive team.

 

[lwc]

Player's DRtg is a barely useful stat, that heavily punishes guys, who do not produce defensive stats, especially defensive rebounds. Bruce Bowen always had crappy DRtg, while Boozer looked fantastic. This statistic is also tied to team DRtg as a baseline, so a bad defender on a good defensive team has higher one than a good defender playing for a bad defensive team.

This is why I generally use the eye test and avoid analytics. Thanks for the clarification.

 

[Telemachus]

Bingo.



Rudy Gay's offensive-defensive rating = 104-108 (net -4)
Harrison Barnes offensive-defensive rating = 114-107 (net +7)

Therefore, Barnes is +11 better overall player by those standards.
How much of both's numbers need to be adjusted for team play? Maybe a point or two on both sides but not 11 total points. Overall, Barnes is younger and the better player.


Looking at other stats to be fair, Barnes is the better shooter in literally every category except free throws.

The hard part when comparing Barnes to Gay offensively is their roles. Barnes is usually the 3rd or 4th option when on the floor, while Gay is the 1st or 2nd option. That means they are defended differently. You don't see Barnes facing a lot of double teams.

 

[Noble]

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Can we stop with the word Hate? Just because someone doesn't think that Rudy is a good fit for what the organization is trying to do, doesn't mean he hates Rudy. I'm sick and tired of this extremism crap. I'm not saying we need or want to trade Rudy. But I'am saying that trading Rudy is a possibility because of the type of team that Vlade, and now Joerger, have alluded to. They both have stated they want more ball movement, and Rudy is not a ball mover.

Now we can speculate all we want about Rudy adapting to the style, but when a player gets to Rudy's age, he is for the most part what you see, and no major changes are going to occur. Rudy is a very good isolation player, and if he could do the other things needed, it wouldn't be a problem. But he has never shown himself to be a good passer, or a good off the ball player. Just not in his makeup. Rudy has s tendency to disappear off the ball. Doesn't make him a bad player, just a bad fit for a team that wants to move the ball.

Look, one of the things necessary for building a winning team is having every piece on the team fit together. For every players skill set to fit what the team is trying to do on the floor. How many times have you seen a team sign a couple of top players in the league and have it not work out. It wasn't about talent, it was about not fitting together. It's not as simple as saying well, he's a 20 point scorer, therefore, were going to be really good. Nope, doesn't work that way. The team might be better with a 12 point scorer who does all the little things that fit better. I'm not a star gazer. I could care less about that kind of stuff, and I realize that a lot of people are. I'm about winning. I'm about results. Having said that, I know that you have to have stars on your team. Stars represent talent, that's why they're stars. And you can't win without talent. It just has to be the right talent. Easier said than done.

Let's tone it down to "beef", wasn't intending to marginalize other's viewpoints with semantics, rather just perplexed to why he's always the first to go in trade scenarios.

And I'm not saying that just because he scores 20 we're going to win more but generally you don't just give away scorers; adding onto that an above average SF in the West with length, handle, and and rebounding skills. I'm going to make the argument that you can't determine if he's a fit or not because of the hurricane of confusion that is our front office and coaching staffs that have had no clue how to utilize our players these past few years. We went old school with Malone and Gay looked great with Cuz, ok we want to run the floor more well how many transition lob passes from Rondo to Gay for the easy dunk have you seen this year, plenty. Good players can fit in many schemes, because they're good players.

 

[ParniValjak]

I think a lot of what we do will depend on two things:

1. Who do we draft?
2. Does Rondo re-sign with us?

If we draft a PG it means that one of Collison or Rondo is not coming back. If you keep Rondo then the other 2 positions on the court are different to when you your PG is Collison.

I think we will know a little bit more after the draft. I wouldn't be surprised if we try and get a bit younger around Cuz!

 

[KingMilz]

Do you think the Jazz would be willing to let go of Trey Lyles/Burke for the 8th pick and Darren (is Mack still under contract with them) or Ben (if Mack is under contract)? He's as good as a stretch 4 in terms of raw skills that I have seen for some time (talking potential not stats) he's not really a win now move but moving forward him/Cuz/WCS would be nasty I doubt the Jazz would do it but I think we should look at some out of the box type moves if we are going to trade the pick.

 

[ParniValjak]

Music to my ears has been hearing coach Joerger that he will play to his roster and can't tell us now how we are going to play. That is basketball 101 but it's getting lost amongst the Warriors mania.

On Rudy, I think we will keep him for now but might look to trade him around the deadline. It's not because of the fit but because I think we will be looking to add younger veterans. Rudy is 30, Rondo if he returns is 30 so I suspect that we will try and at some point get younger by a couple of years at each position.

Having said that, I can totally see us going after Courtney Lee in free agency, especially if we decide to keep Rondo.

 

[lwc]

The hard part when comparing Barnes to Gay offensively is their roles. Barnes is usually the 3rd or 4th option when on the floor, while Gay is the 1st or 2nd option. That means they are defended differently. You don't see Barnes facing a lot of double teams.

Excellent point.

 

[Mass]

Do you think the Jazz would be willing to let go of Trey Lyles/Burke for the 8th pick and Darren (is Mack still under contract with them) or Ben (if Mack is under contract)? He's as good as a stretch 4 in terms of raw skills that I have seen for some time (talking potential not stats) he's not really a win now move but moving forward him/Cuz/WCS would be nasty I doubt the Jazz would do it but I think we should look at some out of the box type moves if we are going to trade the pick.

Collison and 8th?!?!? No thanks.

 

[biltalent]

Music to my ears has been hearing coach Joerger that he will play to his roster and can't tell us now how we are going to play. That is basketball 101 but it's getting lost amongst the Warriors mania.

On Rudy, I think we will keep him for now but might look to trade him around the deadline. It's not because of the fit but because I think we will be looking to add younger veterans. Rudy is 30, Rondo if he returns is 30 so I suspect that we will try and at some point get younger by a couple of years at each position.

Having said that, I can totally see us going after Courtney Lee in free agency, especially if we decide to keep Rondo.

I agree with you on Courtney Lee. If we bring back Rondo he makes a lot of sense. They briefly played togehter in Boston and Lee knows Joerger from Memphis.
If we don't bring back Rondo and roll with Collison I would go hard after Bazemore and offer him 4 years 64 mil at 0.00 a.m on the first day of Free Agency.

 

[randymoss1881]

I agree with you on Courtney Lee. If we bring back Rondo he makes a lot of sense. They briefly played togehter in Boston and Lee knows Joerger from Memphis.
If we don't bring back Rondo and roll with Collison I would go hard after Bazemore and offer him 4 years 64 mil at 0.00 a.m on the first day of Free Agency.

How can we sign Lee and Rondo while keeping Gay?

I do like going after Lee say 11-13mill than give the rest to Teletovic. Lee/Collison are a very good defensive backcourt and good shooters. While WCS/DMC are a good defensive frontcourt

 

[KingMilz]

Collison and 8th?!?!? No thanks.

Trey Lyles would probably be like a top 5 pick coming out this year

 

[KingsFanGER]

I think with the way the playoffs played out so far wing players will be the guys with the most suitors in FA.
Lee, Bazemore, Barnes, Hill - are there any teams, that won't go after these guys? Of course trying to sign these players is the right thing to do for the Kings, but it doesn't mean we actually can sign them and will most likely end trying to massively overpay to get them.
Our FO better has some kind of backup plan. I hope our pick gives us the opportunity to draft a defensive wing. I'm not really into college ball but Jaylen Brown actually looks a little bit like a Winslow type player to me, which would be close to the ideal fit.
Keep Ben and hope Joerger cam bring him back on track.
Look for players outside of the usual FA names to fill our needs.
What's with Jonathan Simmons? He didn't get any meaningful minutes late in the season, but when he played he looked pretty decent. Maybe the Spurs will waive him and we can pick him up for cheap.

 

[ParniValjak]

There are trade options as well but if all else fails Lance Stephenson!

 

[whozit]

There are trade options as well but if all else fails Lance Stephenson!

I don't remember if it was a team or player option of Stephenson, but with the front office stabilizing and the coaching staff on board I would think he could make a viable option or at least entertaining one.

 

[Gilles]

I think with the way the playoffs played out so far wing players will be the guys with the most suitors in FA.
Lee, Bazemore, Barnes, Hill - are there any teams, that won't go after these guys? Of course trying to sign these players is the right thing to do for the Kings, but it doesn't mean we actually can sign them and will most likely end trying to massively overpay to get them.
Our FO better has some kind of backup plan. I hope our pick gives us the opportunity to draft a defensive wing. I'm not really into college ball but Jaylen Brown actually looks a little bit like a Winslow type player to me, which would be close to the ideal fit.
Keep Ben and hope Joerger cam bring him back on track.
Look for players outside of the usual FA names to fill our needs.
What's with Jonathan Simmons? He didn't get any meaningful minutes late in the season, but when he played he looked pretty decent. Maybe the Spurs will waive him and we can pick him up for cheap.

Well, money is usually the main argument, but starting gig is also a factor. Not many PO/potential PO teams has open swingman starting spot.

Anyway this summer will be all about being very decisive right from the start on July, 1st. Big overpay at the start of the process would seem like a steal by the end of the process. There's $1.2B in cap space and just not enough quality players. Someone will get desperate really quick.

I don't remember if it was a team or player option of Stephenson, but with the front office stabilizing and the coaching staff on board I would think he could make a viable option or at least entertaining one.

Kings fans had a lot of similar "entertainment" the last couple of years.

 

[MizzouKing]

...I don't think Rondo/Gay/Cauley-Stein/Cousins is a good fit regardless of who is at SG. All but WCS need the ball in their hands a lot to be effective. Rudy is better off with Collison at PG. Rondo is better off with guys who can catch and shoot or catch and finish.

So I think either Rondo walks or Gay is traded. Or both. We'll see but I doubt both Rudy and Rajon are back next season.

Agreed. My concerns with keeping Rondo are very simple: Cost, Commitment and Age. I love Rondo being a King but spending that much for that long to get someone who doesn't defend and is only going to get slower? Really? Investing in the younger Collison gives us someone (a) who has had a year under Rondo's tutelage and (b) fits better with Gay, (c) opens up opportunity for Seth to develop, and (d) frees up salary cap funds to address more urgent needs.

In my view, Rondo would have to come in short-term and at a real bargain to justify the opportunity costs of keeping him.

MK

 

[hrdboild]

Agreed. My concerns with keeping Rondo are very simple: Cost, Commitment and Age. I love Rondo being a King but spending that much for that long to get someone who doesn't defend and is only going to get slower? Really? Investing in the younger Collison gives us someone (a) who has had a year under Rondo's tutelage and (b) fits better with Gay, (c) opens up opportunity for Seth to develop, and (d) frees up salary cap funds to address more urgent needs.

In my view, Rondo would have to come in short-term and at a real bargain to justify the opportunity costs of keeping him.

MK

Rondo is only 30 though. These are the same reasons Dallas decided not to re-sign Steve Nash after he turned 30 and he went on to play 8 seasons for Phoenix, was selected as an All-Star in 6 of them, and won consecutive MVP awards in his early 30s. If you look at comparable pass-first PGs (multiple seasons with assist% > 45), most of them have long careers. Jason Kidd played until he was 40 (winning a championship as the starting PG in Dallas at age 38), Nash played until he was 40, John Stockton played until he was 41, Andre Miller is still playing at 40. Chris Paul is 31 and still looks like he has a lot of years left. Also, Collison is only a year and a half younger than Rondo so passing on Rondo this summer because of age/cost puts you in exactly the same position with Collison next year when his contract expires and the salary cap jumps up to 108 million.

 

[hrdboild]

I don't remember if it was a team or player option of Stephenson, but with the front office stabilizing and the coaching staff on board I would think he could make a viable option or at least entertaining one.

It's a team option. He played well enough after the All-Star break that they may pick up the option just to have another trade chip this summer. $9.4 million is going to seem like a bargain when the top Free Agents get $150 million dollar deals.

 

[randymoss1881]

Rondo is only 30 though. These are the same reasons Dallas decided not to re-sign Steve Nash after he turned 30 and he went on to play 8 seasons for Phoenix, was selected as an All-Star in 6 of them, and won consecutive MVP awards in his early 30s. If you look at comparable pass-first PGs (multiple seasons with assist% > 45), most of them have long careers. Jason Kidd played until he was 40 (winning a championship as the starting PG in Dallas at age 38), Nash played until he was 40, John Stockton played until he was 41, Andre Miller is still playing at 40. Chris Paul is 31 and still looks like he has a lot of years left. Also, Collison is only a year and a half younger than Rondo so passing on Rondo this summer because of age/cost puts you in exactly the same position with Collison next year when his contract expires and the salary cap jumps up to 108 million.

Don't compare rondo to those guys please!!

 

[twslam07]

Over the last 4 seasons, Rondo's teams have been better with him off the floor:
2015-16 (Kings) = -1.4
2014-15 (Celtics/Mavs) = -3.4
2013-14 (Celtics) = -6.6
2012-13 (Celtics) = -3.5

Over the last 3 seasons, his regularized adjusted plus minus has been negative as well (the stat only goes back 3 years. I'm sure Rondo's would have been negative in 2012-13):
2015-16 (Kings) = -0.24
2014-15 (Celtics/Mavs) = -3.21
2013-14 (Celtics) = -0.93

I'm finding it hard to see the argument to resign a 30 year old PG to $12-16 mil a year when we have a PG already on the roster who gives us as much if not more production while only being paid $5 mil a year. How about we use that money to strengthen weaknesses on the roster?

 

[hrdboild]

Don't compare rondo to those guys please!!

I don't have to. The numbers speak for themselves.

 

[LPKingsFan]

I don't have to. The numbers speak for themselves.

I don't know that anyone's doubting Rondo's passing ability, and whether it may age well. The issue is everything else. Nash's shooting aged well, of course, and Stockton's remained very good.

Rondo's never been a shooter, his second elite skill was always his defense. And we haven't seen that for a couple years.

 

[hrdboild]

I don't know that anyone's doubting Rondo's passing ability, and whether it may age well. The issue is everything else. Nash's shooting aged well, of course, and Stockton's remained very good.

Rondo's never been a shooter, his second elite skill was always his defense. And we haven't seen that for a couple years.

That's not really relevant though. The comment was about reluctance to commit a lot of money/years to a 30 year old veteran because of age-related decline. His best season in Boston was 2012 and his stats this year were nearly identical with the exception of 3pt percentage which has improved every year since then. And defensively, there's really no basis for comparison. Different teammates, different coaches, different scheme. Like every player he's going to lose speed as he gets older but speed is a very minor part of his game to begin with. There's no evidence for age-related decline of court-vision, offensive IQ, or passing ability. So if you're happy with who Rondo is now there's a good chance you'll be happy with him for the next 4 or 5 years at least. If you're not happy with who Rondo is now than you probably don't want to re-sign him anyway right?

 

[MizzouKing]

Rondo is only 30 though. These are the same reasons Dallas decided not to re-sign Steve Nash after he turned 30 and he went on to play 8 seasons for Phoenix, was selected as an All-Star in 6 of them, and won consecutive MVP awards in his early 30s. If you look at comparable pass-first PGs (multiple seasons with assist% > 45), most of them have long careers. Jason Kidd played until he was 40 (winning a championship as the starting PG in Dallas at age 38), Nash played until he was 40, John Stockton played until he was 41, Andre Miller is still playing at 40. Chris Paul is 31 and still looks like he has a lot of years left. Also, Collison is only a year and a half younger than Rondo so passing on Rondo this summer because of age/cost puts you in exactly the same position with Collison next year when his contract expires and the salary cap jumps up to 108 million.

Very interesting...great points!