What if the Kings finally get the number 1 pick?
- Thread starter KingsCitizen
- Start date
If the Kings could get Noel and a 3-5 pick to grab Russell or Mudiay all of a sudden they look like a very solid team. And they'd still have enough capspace (assuming they don't resign DWill) to go after one more significant role player. In my mind that would be a scoring wing who can hit from outside and has the ability to get hot and carry the bench scoring load.
Here are the odds for where the Kings could draft
#1 6.3%
#2 7.1%
#3 8.1%
#4 0.0%
#5 0.0 %
#6 43.9%
#7 30.5%
#8 4.0%
#9 0.1%
So there's actually better odds that the Kings pick 7th than in the top 3. And there's also a miniscule (but non-zero) chance that they pick 9th.
To me I see things this way:
If the Kings get the #1 pick you either take Towns are exact a ransom for the pick (say #3 or #4 from Philly plus Noel)
If the Kings get #2 or #3 and Okafor goes first you take Towns or trade the pick. If Towns is gone I think you trade the pick
At 6, 7 or 8 my first choice would be Cauley-Stein. If he's off the board then I'm not sure where you go. I think one of Mudiay or Russell may slip, probably Mudiay. He's not a great fit, but might be worth the gamble. Porzingis is a boom or bust, high risk/high reward pick. Hezonia is a smooth scorer but that's three straight SG picks. I think Winslow is gone by #5 so I think after WCS and Mudiay (if he slips) Stanley Johnson would be my pick unless there's a trade out there that makes a lot of sense.
Rarely do you get value for the pick in trade if it's not top 3, historically speaking.
#1 6.3%
#2 7.1%
#3 8.1%
#4 0.0%
#5 0.0 %
#6 43.9%
#7 30.5%
#8 4.0%
#9 0.1%
So there's actually better odds that the Kings pick 7th than in the top 3. And there's also a miniscule (but non-zero) chance that they pick 9th.
To me I see things this way:
If the Kings get the #1 pick you either take Towns are exact a ransom for the pick (say #3 or #4 from Philly plus Noel)
If the Kings get #2 or #3 and Okafor goes first you take Towns or trade the pick. If Towns is gone I think you trade the pick
At 6, 7 or 8 my first choice would be Cauley-Stein. If he's off the board then I'm not sure where you go. I think one of Mudiay or Russell may slip, probably Mudiay. He's not a great fit, but might be worth the gamble. Porzingis is a boom or bust, high risk/high reward pick. Hezonia is a smooth scorer but that's three straight SG picks. I think Winslow is gone by #5 so I think after WCS and Mudiay (if he slips) Stanley Johnson would be my pick unless there's a trade out there that makes a lot of sense.
Rarely do you get value for the pick in trade if it's not top 3, historically speaking.
At the midpoint of the season I thought we might be able to get Noel for the #6 pick. He went into overdrive after that and started to look like a player no GM would give up on. Which is good for him, but bad for our chances of getting him. I think Hinkie can still be tempted with a top 3 pick though. It's possible that Philly wins a top 3 pick and gets LA's # 6 in the lotto. I didn't calculate the odds, but I think it's probably similar to our odds of getting in the top 3 (EDIT- okay, it's 16% for the Lakers to get #6). In that scenario, I think they'd be open to dealing Noel for another top 3 pick so they can nab Okafor/Towns and Mudiay/Russell. The entire goal of their re-build is to nab multiple elite players like OKC did with Durant, Westbrook, and Harden. Noel looks like an elite defender, but there's some question of where his offensive ceiling is. If they can get Towns to pair with Embiid in the frontcourt, they'd probably prefer to fill the gaping hole in their backcourt with an elite prospect instead of trying to develop 3 bigs simultaneously.
That's a lot of ifs though.
Just have to wait and see.
That's a lot of ifs though.
Just have to wait and see.
Last edited:
i'd also mention that hinkie's seat is likely to get a bit hotter in the very near future. he can play the part of unflappable-gm-with-a-plan, but when push comes to shove, with torrents of criticism landing at his feet and little to show for the last two seasons but hope that his tank-tastic strategy will pan out, could a team that lucks into the #1 pick take advantage? there may be a window if hinkie feels any amount of pressure to deliver a genuine prize to philly fans. i could see noel packaged with philly's first-rounder in exchange for #1 overall, especially with embiid's potential still waiting in the wings...
If we were to turn the #1 pick into Noel and Russell that would be straight witchcraft. Is Philly really that desperate to make a splash? Reminds me of the movie draft day...
I would be willing to trade #1 and Stauskas for Noel and Russell which I think is a little more realistic.
PG - Collison/Russell/McCallum
SG - McLemore
SF - Gay
PF - Noel/Landry/Moreland
C - Cousins/Thompson
A Cousins/Noel/Gay/McLemore/Russell lineup has some crazy long term potential.
I would be willing to trade #1 and Stauskas for Noel and Russell which I think is a little more realistic.
PG - Collison/Russell/McCallum
SG - McLemore
SF - Gay
PF - Noel/Landry/Moreland
C - Cousins/Thompson
A Cousins/Noel/Gay/McLemore/Russell lineup has some crazy long term potential.
Last edited:
If you can't get the additional draft pick, then you don't do the deal, because in my opinion, Towns is going to be a far better player than Noel. The only way I make that trade is if I get the additional pick. However, everything I read in the Philly papers says they have their eye on the PG position. Russell could be that transformational player.
If we get the number one spot, then unless someone comes and dazzles me with a deal I can't refuse, I go ahead and draft Towns, who does have a jumpshot, he just wasn't allowed to use it much at Kentucky. Remember, no one knew that Cousins had a jumpshot coming out of Kentucky. If you saw Towns play in highschool, you would have seen the 15 to 18 foot jumpshot.
If we get the number one spot, then unless someone comes and dazzles me with a deal I can't refuse, I go ahead and draft Towns, who does have a jumpshot, he just wasn't allowed to use it much at Kentucky. Remember, no one knew that Cousins had a jumpshot coming out of Kentucky. If you saw Towns play in highschool, you would have seen the 15 to 18 foot jumpshot.
not to worry...history is not on the Kings side, despite what people would like to state about statistics and odds...that goes out the window when it's the Kings turn to withdraw that ping pong ball from that little glass box because we should know more than any other fan base that history does repeat itself.
Only players that would fit that criteria are RFAs. Draymond Green and Jimmy Butler. They'd have to agree to sign with us first, and I don't think they'd want to leave their teams either.
I think there are very limited options right now because everyone seems to fit their current team. Other players that kind of fit that criteria are: Alec Burks, Khris Middleton(RFA), Ed Davis(PO), Wilson Chandler, Hassan Whiteside, and Alex Len. I don't think any of those players are worth the #1 overall pick alone. Remember, Cleveland's #1 overall pick gave them Kevin Love. That #1 overall pick was Wiggins..
I think we're going to sell our team short if we can't trade it for someone like Jimmy Butler.
Just not a lot of players that are available out there today. I don't think a trade would benefit us a lot unless there's a nice package for us.
I think there are very limited options right now because everyone seems to fit their current team. Other players that kind of fit that criteria are: Alec Burks, Khris Middleton(RFA), Ed Davis(PO), Wilson Chandler, Hassan Whiteside, and Alex Len. I don't think any of those players are worth the #1 overall pick alone. Remember, Cleveland's #1 overall pick gave them Kevin Love. That #1 overall pick was Wiggins..
I think we're going to sell our team short if we can't trade it for someone like Jimmy Butler.
Just not a lot of players that are available out there today. I don't think a trade would benefit us a lot unless there's a nice package for us.
