Trade Target: Maurice Harkless?

[hrdboild]

Now that Victor Oladipo is back, Maurice Harkless isn't getting any playing time off the Orlando bench. The newly 3 point crazed coach Jacque Vaughn has opted to continue playing Evan Fournier big minutes off the bench instead. Payton, Oladipo. Harris, a stretch 4 (currently Channing Frye), and Vucevic is their core team now and they want shooters off the bench to make up for their poor shooting backcourt. They also drafted Aaron Gordon #4 this year and he makes Maurice Harkless redundant in a lot of ways. He's got a year and a half left on his rookie deal and it seems unlikely they'll go out of their way to re-sign him, so he shouldn't be hard to get.

Why would we want him? I recently started a topic talking about Possible PF's to Target. I used the season finder tool at basketball-reference to try to simulate the ideal PF for our team and generated a list of options based on the results. I thought I should try applying the same strategy to perimeter defenders and see what I could get. My first attempt was rather simple: active players, beginning in the 00-01 season, defensive rebound % >10 (we have to secure the rebound to finish off defensive possessions), steal % >3 (cheating a bit, but assuming a good defender is going to come up with more steals than a bad one), and blk % >1 (because I want an all-around good defender). I also set games played > 25 to eliminate small sample size players and again sorted them by defense rating. It was a very small list. You can see that list here:
.
Test List #1

Only 20 individual seasons met the criteria and 7 of them belonged to Tony Allen and 6 of them to Ron Artest. I figured I must be on the right track if I created a search for perimeter defenders that overwhelmingly hit on Tony Allen and Ron Artest, probably the two greatest perimeter defenders of this current generation. Unfortunately, it didn't suggest any possible targets. Of the remaining names, only Eric Bledsoe made the list more than once and he just got a huge extension from Phoenix so he's out. I've seen enough of Jan Vesely to pass on him and the others are past their prime and/or not going anywhere.

So I had to broaden the criteria a bit. Dropping the steal % requirement down to 2.5 produced 101 hits seen here:
.
Test List #2

That's a decent list of defensive roleplayers. I sorted out the C/PF players who made the list, the PGs (there were a couple believe it or not), the older vets, and so on and the result was this list of potential candidates for the role of wing defender off the bench:

Maurice Harkless, Draymond Green, Chris Singleton, Thaddeus Young, Jimmy Butler

Now you'll notice I didn't name this topic "Young SF/SGs to Watch" and that's because we already have Ben and Rudy so the situation is a little different for this position. The way I see it, we're looking for a bargain player who can come in and do the dirty work off the bench when Rudy and Ben need rest. Omri has been able to back up the PF, SF, and SG positions this season and I love what Omri has given us but I think we need one more SG/SF defender. Derrick Williams has shown he's not going to cut it. Nik Stauskas is still on the radar but he's too shaky this season to be relied upon.

That eliminates Jimmy Butler as he's going to get at least $11 million per season after this year. It probably eliminates Draymond Green as well as Golden State seem pretty adamant about keeping him. Thaddeus Young is expensive as well and he's mostly played PF in the NBA. So the two remaining options are Chris Singleton (an interesting player I wouldn't mind taking a chance on who was waived by Indiana in pre-season so he's currently a free agent) and... Maurice Harkless.

So that's why I think we would want Harkless. We've got Darren, Ben, Rudy, and DeMarcus. Ray seems like a good bet to get backup PG minutes in the future. We need another wing defender and a solid defensive role player PF to push JT into the third big role. I'm not going to propose trade scenarios because that's all anyone will read if I do. But I think it would be a good idea to open up discussions with Orlando while Harkless is currently riding the bench and see what it might take to pry him loose.

 

[206Fan]

Only problem is that Harkless is a SF........ no way in heck does he ever play PF on any team lol.

 

[hrdboild]

Only problem is that Harkless is a SF........ no way in heck does he ever play PF on any team lol.

Yes... uh, that was the point though wadn't it? Oh I see, too long didn't read.

 

[KingsFanGER]

Is there enough playing time for Harkless between Rudy, Casspi and Landry ( assuming Casspi would geht minutes at the 4)?

 

[hrdboild]

Is there enough playing time for Harkless between Rudy, Casspi and Landry ( assuming Casspi would geht minutes at the 4)?

I don't think that matters anymore. If Casspi is being effective, he plays. If Carl is being effective, he plays. We've seen already in the Dallas and Memphis games that we have a problem holding leads when our starters come out. We need someone who can come off the bench and play effective defense for 5 minutes at a time at the C position and we need someone to guard the other teams best wing scorer when Rudy and Ben come out. That's why I've been working backwards -- start with the hole we have to fill and then see who there is out there who might fill it. If Casspi can play PF or SG in certain match-up situations, there's a need for another SF off the bench who's not Derrick Williams. Also, if Harkless can cover the tougher defensive match-up, that might make it easier for Stauskas to stay on the floor long enough to start making some threes. When you're winning games and everybody knows their role, finding minutes for everybody is a lot less important than finding ways to get the win every night. I think so anyway.

If anyone gets squeezed in this scenario, it's going to be Reggie Evans most likely whose backup C role goes to some combination of Jason Thompson and whatever defensive PF/C we bring in to push Thompson to the bench. The Harkless role in the rotation would be borrowing minutes from Landry some nights (by way of pushing Casspi to PF) and from Stauskas some nights (by pushing Casspi to SG). But again, if somebody is having a particularly good night off the bench they get extended run, whoever that turns out to be. Give Malone as many functional players off the bench as we can and let him figure out how best to use them.

 

[Gilles]

If Orlando is in the middle of the lottery this year, they will be in the zone of the draft, where all the best players are SG-PFs. In other words Harkless will be pushed further down the pecking order, and indeed might become very much available. From what he's shown so far, it's not clear, if he can be anything more than 3&D guy. Then you look at his situational defensive numbers: for a long guy he just couldn't stop anyone inside last year. His opponents shot 6% above league average within 10 feet of the basket. A lot depends on the defensive system, but this plus lack of offense might explain his lack of minutes to start the season - Harkless just doesn't really help his team on either end of the floor.

 

[ShastaKingsFan]

Maybe they're still looking to bring in Terrance Williams to try as a "wing specialist" off the bench? Specifically a very athletic player who can defend a couple different player types

 

[Chupacabra]

I don't think that matters anymore. If Casspi is being effective, he plays. If Carl is being effective, he plays. We've seen already in the Dallas and Memphis games that we have a problem holding leads when our starters come out. We need someone who can come off the bench and play effective defense for 5 minutes at a time at the C position and we need someone to guard the other teams best wing scorer when Rudy and Ben come out. That's why I've been working backwards -- start with the hole we have to fill and then see who there is out there who might fill it. If Casspi can play PF or SG in certain match-up situations, there's a need for another SF off the bench who's not Derrick Williams. Also, if Harkless can cover the tougher defensive match-up, that might make it easier for Stauskas to stay on the floor long enough to start making some threes. When you're winning games and everybody knows their role, finding minutes for everybody is a lot less important than finding ways to get the win every night. I think so anyway.

If anyone gets squeezed in this scenario, it's going to be Reggie Evans most likely whose backup C role goes to some combination of Jason Thompson and whatever defensive PF/C we bring in to push Thompson to the bench. The Harkless role in the rotation would be borrowing minutes from Landry some nights (by way of pushing Casspi to PF) and from Stauskas some nights (by pushing Casspi to SG). But again, if somebody is having a particularly good night off the bench they get extended run, whoever that turns out to be. Give Malone as many functional players off the bench as we can and let him figure out how best to use them.

I largely attribute this to our Evans/Landry front court's inability to limit the opposing team to 1 shot.

 

[hrdboild]

If Orlando is in the middle of the lottery this year, they will be in the zone of the draft, where all the best players are SG-PFs. In other words Harkless will be pushed further down the pecking order, and indeed might become very much available. From what he's shown so far, it's not clear, if he can be anything more than 3&D guy. Then you look at his situational defensive numbers: for a long guy he just couldn't stop anyone inside last year. His opponents shot 6% above league average within 10 feet of the basket. A lot depends on the defensive system, but this plus lack of offense might explain his lack of minutes to start the season - Harkless just doesn't really help his team on either end of the floor.

I don't know where you get the situational data, so I can't refute it. But 82games' +/- ratings have Harkless ranked fourth on the team right now (here) -- you can compare by looking at the Sacramento numbers (here). Also, I don't put a lot of stock in individual defense rating, but relative to the rest of the team I think it does indicate whether a player is contributing defensively or not. And if you look at all three years he's been in the league, the only players on Orlando with a higher defense rating than Harkless have been the centers. Most importantly, he passes the eye test. I watched Moe Harkless play at St John's and I know he was a plus defender in college, as a freshman no less. His weakness coming out of college was that he wasn't a shooter -- he was an athletic slasher. Kind of a Rudy Gay clone actually. And he did improve his 3 point shooting to 38% last season, though we wouldn't be acquiring him for his offense.

Any time I do a player search on basketball-reference, I'm not making recommendations based solely on stats. The guys I mentioned as possibilities in this topic and the PF one are players that I already like subjectively for their defense. The purpose of the stat search is to eliminate my subjective opinion from the equation and see which players the raw data recommends. If that data supports my subjective opinion, than I recommend them. Tristan Thompson, for example, is a player I would have recommended for us but the data doesn't support my subjective opinion so I left him off the list.

 

[Gilles]

http://stats.nba.com/player/#!/203090/tracking/defense/?Season=2013-14
It shows he's actually good at defending mid-range. And opponents' 3pt-shooting notoriously has little to do with your defensive effort. Just ask Popovich.

I wanted Harkless during the draft, and his .386 shooting is a very encouraging sign, but FT% is extremely low for a good shooter, so his jump in 3pt% might have been an outlier, which limits even further his not so versatile offense.

 

[206Fan]

Yes... uh, that was the point though wadn't it? Oh I see, too long didn't read.

I admitted I skimmed through it, but it looks like you're saying he's a 4.
You clearly said

Now you'll notice I didn't name this topic "Young SF/SGs to Watch" and that's because we already have Ben and Rudy so the situation is a little different for this position.

He's a young SF...is he not? And you said they drafted Aaron Gordon who plays the 4, so it makes Harkless redundant in a lot of ways. How so? Especially if they play 2 different positions? Orlando HEAVILY uses their starters. Vucevic- 36mins Fournier 34mins Frye 34mins Harris 36mins, and so on. Harkless is their back up SF, but as you can see, they don't play their backups very often.

Why would we ever want Harkless? Strictly because of defense? Who would score then? Our current bench is Sessions-Nik-Casspi-Landry-Evans. So you'd want to move Casspi to the 4, and Landry to the 5? Sessions-Nik-Harkless-Casspi-Landry? We would be even WORSE on defense than we already are. Are you assuming Casspi plays the 2? Sessions-Casspi-Harkless-Landry-JT(By your assumption that we find a better pf)? We would literally have 0 threat from the perimeter and our offense would be dreadful. There would be a lot of iso plays too. Harkless is a player who scores by posting up. He has no real jumper, and is a dreadful FT shooter. I don't see why you would want Harkless on our team at the expense of offense, or even defense. He doesn't bring anything to our squad that Omri doesn't already. Harkless also has career rate of 1.2 per36... that's terrible.

Don't you think if Harkless was a better player, he'd get more PT in a team like the Magic?

If you want a wing defender like Harkless at the cost of offense and ball movement, sure.

 

[hrdboild]

I admitted I skimmed through it, but it looks like you're saying he's a 4.
You clearly said
He's a young SF...is he not? And you said they drafted Aaron Gordon who plays the 4, so it makes Harkless redundant in a lot of ways. How so? Especially if they play 2 different positions? Orlando HEAVILY uses their starters. Vucevic- 36mins Fournier 34mins Frye 34mins Harris 36mins, and so on. Harkless is their back up SF, but as you can see, they don't play their backups very often.

Why would we ever want Harkless? Strictly because of defense? Who would score then? Our current bench is Sessions-Nik-Casspi-Landry-Evans. So you'd want to move Casspi to the 4, and Landry to the 5? Sessions-Nik-Harkless-Casspi-Landry? We would be even WORSE on defense than we already are. Are you assuming Casspi plays the 2? Sessions-Casspi-Harkless-Landry-JT(By your assumption that we find a better pf)? We would literally have 0 threat from the perimeter and our offense would be dreadful. There would be a lot of iso plays too. Harkless is a player who scores by posting up. He has no real jumper, and is a dreadful FT shooter. I don't see why you would want Harkless on our team at the expense of offense, or even defense. He doesn't bring anything to our squad that Omri doesn't already. Harkless also has career rate of 1.2 per36... that's terrible.

Don't you think if Harkless was a better player, he'd get more PT in a team like the Magic?

If you want a wing defender like Harkless at the cost of offense and ball movement, sure.

I think you just misunderstood me. The purpose of my other topic (the name there is a link) was to identity young frontcourt players who we could target that would come in and provide what Jason Thompson does on a good day (size, defense, and rebounding) but with more consistency. I had set out to do the same to fill the backup SG/SF position but when I ran the search string, there were only two potential candidates that came up and one of them seemed a lot more promising than the other. So instead of making a topic targeted to the backup SG/SF position, I just created a topic suggesting Maurice Harkless as the right player for the job. His job would be backup SG/SF and his role would be to elevate the level of defense coming from our bench unit. To be perfectly clear, I'm not advocating that Harkless play any minutes at the PF position.

Gordon makes Harkless somewhat redundant for Orlando because they have a non-shooting PG and a SG who isn't reliable from range either. They want shooting from their forward positions to offset the backcourt and Gordon is a defensive specialist and a bit of a tweener. They didn't pick Gordon #4 overall to leave him on the bench and I don't think they have minutes in the rotation for two backup forwards who are defensive specialists. Fournier is no longer the starter with Oladipo back in the lineup and he's been getting most of the backup minutes at SG and SF now that Oladipo is back.

I largely attribute this to our Evans/Landry front court's inability to limit the opposing team to 1 shot.

The perimeter defense has been just as big of a problem I think. Getting some actual size in the post would help a lot, but we also need at least one defender on the perimeter who can stop guard penetration. Giving Ray the backup PG minutes would also help a lot but between Casspi, Williams, and Stauskas we could really use an additional wing who could come in and be a defensive stopper. Any offense that player provides would be a bonus. That's why I suggested a guy like Harkless, an inexpensive backup player who's young enough that he could grow into a bigger role but he isn't going to cost us a ton in the meantime.

 

[kingsfan1984]

I would love to replace Williams with a defensive guy. Harkless would be used situationaly, so we wouldn't be looking at a bench lineup featuring Landry in the center. On a night where Ben is not effective or in foul trouble/getting lit up Harkless could be called on for DEF down the stretch. A small ball lineup that is flexible, i.e. able to switch on picks without creating a big mismatch, could be Collison/Harkless/Gay/Casspi/Cousins.

I would welcome any upgrade on the end of the bench in place of DWIll.

 

[upinsmoke]

I really liked Harkless as a prospect and still do but the issue here is finding a role for him. I really want to keep Casspi at his natural 3 spot and when i look at Orlando's roster I don't see them as great trade partners. Our bench has made a habit of going on scoring droughts so a shakeup is definitely somewhere. Im not saying NO to Harkless but it needs to be the right deal because we shouldn't give up any of our youngsters and D-Will makes alot more money than Harkless so where do trade discussions start?

D-Will in exchange for Harkless + Ben Gordon is about as far as I go without another team jumping in.

 

[bajaden]

First, our bench problem had more to do with Landry and Evans being our front line. Just too undersized when playing teams like Memphis, the Spurs, or any team with a big front line. So a greater need is for a backup center. Hollins doesn't fit the bill. If not a backup center, then a PF that could move JT to the bench and make him our backup center. As much as I liked Harkless as a prospect coming out of college, I just don't see how he helps much. The question would be, just where does he get his minutes, and who do you have on the floor with him. He's a terrible outside shooter. He is a good defender, but there's is no way I see him as PF. If anything, I see him more as a tall SG than a PF, although I think his true position has to be at SF. With Gay and Casspi taking up almost all the minutes, I don't see a need for him, other than if someone gets injured.

So to my mind, its not so much about him, as it is us, and our needs. Now Chris Singleton is another matter. Not sure why he's not on an NBA roster right now. He's a terrific athlete, a great defender, and he has the size to play some PF. Once again, he's a poor outside shooter, but he does rebound, and that's something Harkless doesn't do.

 

[kingsboi]

where does Harkless fit here though? I just don't see him bringing anything here and I sure wouldn't play him over Casspi and he is not a PF...he is way too skinny to be trying that. Pass.

 

[hrdboild]

I think you guys are forgetting that our backup SG position is just as bad right now as backup C. Stauskas is not ready to get regular minutes on a winning team. Harkless won't help at PF but Omri can for stretches which means there are backup minutes at SG and SF. If Derrick Williams decides to wake up and join the team for good, it's less of an issue.

As for who we trade, my initial thought was Reggie Evans. While he's obviously an asset in the lockerroom, he's already redundant with Landry healthy again and he becomes even more redundant if we acquire a PF that pushes Thompson to the bench.

 

[upinsmoke]

I think you guys are forgetting that our backup SG position is just as bad right now as backup C. Stauskas is not ready to get regular minutes on a winning team. Harkless won't help at PF but Omri can for stretches which means there are backup minutes at SG and SF. If Derrick Williams decides to wake up and join the team for good, it's less of an issue.

As for who we trade, my initial thought was Reggie Evans. While he's obviously an asset in the lockerroom, he's already redundant with Landry healthy again and he becomes even more redundant if we acquire a PF that pushes Thompson to the bench.

Is Reggie Evans really on Orlando's wish list though?

 

[hrdboild]

Vucevic just got a 4yr/54M extension and Tobias Harris is a free agent at the end of the season so their payroll is going to jump up significantly. Harkless' salary jumps to 2.9 million next year -- if they're not planning to re-sign him, this saves them 3 million off next year's salary cap and gets them a productive veteran in the meantime. A 1 to 1 trade for Evans works salary-wise. We could throw in a second round pick. I don't see them demanding much for a player who doesn't seem to be in their plans anyway.

Also keep in mind, in addition to being a better wing defender than anyone we currently have on our bench, he shot 38% from three last season with 2 attempts per game. That would put him second on the team in 3pt percentage this season after Ben McLemore. Last season it would have put him second on the team after Jimmer.