The Teams of the Great Centers Study #4 -- The '05 Heat

If you swapped Boogie and Gay for '05 Shaq and Wade, how many games would the Heat have won?

  • 60+ and the title

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 40-44

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 35-39

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 30-34

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 29 or less

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    3
  • Poll closed .

Bricklayer

Don't Make Me Use The Bat
#1
Welcome to Study #4 of The Teams of the Great Centers series.

-- Study #1 may be found here: http://www.kingsfans.com/threads/the-teams-of-the-great-centers-study-1-the-96-spurs.60134/
-- Study #2 may be found here: http://www.kingsfans.com/threads/the-teams-of-the-great-centers-study-2-the-83-sixers.60173/
-- Study #3 may be found here: http://www.kingsfans.com/threads/the-teams-of-the-great-centers-study-3-the-94-knicks.60204/

Study #4 takes a look at one of the more recent great center teams in the study, the 2005 Heat in Shaq's first year after leaving Los Angeles. For obvious reasons it was important to use the first Shaq Heat season, because during that time a) Shaq still had enough left to be comparable to Cuz; and b) DWade was still young enough to make the Rudy/Wade comparison something other than a complete blowout.

The repeated argument of this series is that we already have in place major elements of great center teams that won a ton of games, not that we are directly comparable to the very greatest version of those teams. And so in the '05 Heat we are one more time going to find a team who's #1/#2 players' productivity wasn't actually out of the league of our own #1/#2, but who somehow managed to win 59 games and make the ECF while we're talking about lottery ball odds. The argument isn't that the core pairing may not have been better, the point would be that they were not remotely close to twice as good, and imitating these teams' structures outside of the main weapons should result in a winning team. In a shocking development, that structure once again featured lots of defense and lots of experienced old veterans.

Study #4 -- The 2004-05 Heat
Team Record: 59-23 (Lost in Eastern Conference Finals)
Coach: Stan Van Gundy
Pace: 15th of 30
Off Rating: 5th of 30
Def Rating: 6th of 30

A) Roster and Roles
C - Shaquille O'Neal (#1 option)
PF - Udonis Haslem (defensive/rebounding stalwart)
SF - Eddie Jones (defense, shooter)
SG - Dwayne Wade (#2 option/almost a co-#1)
PG - Damon Jones (shooter)

B) Team Structure
Clearly here the #1/#2 comparisons are Cuz/Gay vs. Shaq/Wade, so I'll again blur the Frontcourt/Backcourt considerations here. The Heat though were absolutely pure as the driven snow beyond those two guys. It was #1/#2 and then defenders, shooters, or defender/shooter combos.

1) Here's the main gun comparison made more viable than you might think because Shaq was too old and Wade too young:

'05 O'Neal: 34.1min 22.9pts (.583TS%) 10.4reb 2.7ast 0.5stl 2.3blk 2.8TO
'05 DWade: 38.6min 24.1pts (.561TS%) 5.2reb 6.8ast 1.6stl 1.1blk 4.2TO

'15 Cousins: 33.9min 23.7pts (.551TS%) 12.3reb 3.2ast 1.4stl 1.6blk 4.2TO
'15 RudGay: 35.5min 20.7pts (.552TS%) 5.9reb 3.7ast 1.0stl 0.6blk 2.7TO

A constant perverting factor in this comparison is that DWade was a full class of player above Rudy Gay. But this was young DWade, the gap was smaller than it would become. And I think there's a pretty good argument to be made that Boogie was actually better than this aging Shaq, who had begun to enter 8th Continent of the World status and lose his mobility. In any case, as has been the argument elsewhere, its not that the Cuz/Rudy combo has to be as good as this version of Shaq/Wade, its just that the gap between them can in no way explain the vast gap in the two team's fortunes.

2) Udonis Haslem (still in the league today) essentially played a young poor man's Oakley. That same defensive/rebounding wingman PF role that Riley always found for his great centers (Riley was GM this year before deposing SVG the next season, but still his team).

3) This is the 4th team out of 4 (may be a trend here) that has featured a twin ballhandlers/initiators backcourt structure. Not just one backcourt guy capable of initiating the play, but two. In this case of course Wade was a budding superstar and completely out of Damon Jones' league talentwise, so he actually handled the ball more than the PG did. We were probably closer to this backcourt structure back when we had Reke/Beno than we are today.

4) Aging Eddie Jones, who would eventually turn into James Posey, was the real pivotal "culture" player. After the two stars there was 1 shooter (Damon Jones), 1 defender (Haslem), and then Eddie Jones was the 3&D glue vet who came along and did both. So a team built on 2 stars, shooting, and defense. While our team is built upon two stars and neither.

5) Mixture of age/youth. I don't think this was particularly a strength here, so its not going in the conclusions below, but it was notable. This had been a young team in the midst of a rebuild, and then suddenly Riley realized what he had in Wade, and saw a chance to snap up one of the last of the great centers, which he built his entire legacy around. So he ended up with half a team of kids, and then recruited any old vet he trusted to come in and mentor them. It was more of a tossed salad than a melting pot of a mix, and in future years after further development they'd become a more cohesive veteran bunch.

6) Vastly mediocre bench split between mediocrities just eating some minutes in guys like Doleac, Malik Allen, or Butler, and way over the hill vets there purely as experienced voices/cheerleaders.

C) Main Rotation Roster Comparison
C Shaquille O'Neal (Age: 32 Exp: 12yrs) = DeMarcus Cousins (Age: 24 Exp: 4yrs)
PF Udonis Haslem (Age: 24 Exp: 1yrs) = Jason Thompson (Age: 28 Exp: 6yrs)
SF/SG Eddie Jones (Age: 33 Exp: 10yrs) = Rudy Gay (Age: 28 Exp: 8yrs)
SG Dwayne Wade (Age: 23 Exp: 1yrs) = Ben McLemore (Age: 21 Exp: 1yr)
PG Damon Jones (Age: 28 Exp: 6yrs) = Darren Collison (Age: 27 Exp: 5yrs)
PF Christian Laettner (Age: 35 Exp: 12yrs) = Derrick Williams (Age: 23 Exp: 3yrs)
PG Keyon Dooling (Age: 24 Exp: 4yrs) = Sessions (Age:28) McCallum(Age:23) Miller (Age:38)
SG Shandon Anderson (Age: 31 Exp: 8yrs) = Nik Stauskas (Age: 21 Exp: R)
SG/SF Rasual Butler (Age: 25 Exp: 2yrs) = Omri Casspi (Age: 26 Exp: 5yrs)
C Michael Doleac (Age: 27 Exp: 6yrs) = Carl Landry (Age: 31 Exp: 7yrs)

D) 2004-05 Heat Main Rotation Stats
DWade 77gms 38.6min 24.1pts (.478 .289 .762) 5.2reb 6.8ast 1.6stl 1.1blk 4.2TO
SONeal 73gms 34.1min 22.9pts (.601 .--- .461) 10.4reb 2.7ast 0.5stl 2.3blk 2.8TO
EJones 80gms 35.5min 12.7pts (.428 .372 .806) 5.1reb 2.7ast 1.1stl 0.5blk 1.2TO
DJones 82gms 31.4min 11.6pts (.456 .432 .791) 2.8reb 4.3ast 0.5stl 0.1blk 1.2TO
Haslem 80gms 33.4min 10.9pts (.540 .--- .791) 9.1reb 1.4ast 0.8stl 0.5blk 1.4TO
RButler 65gms 18.5min 6.5pts (.399 .373 .771) 2.3reb 1.0ast 0.3stl 0.4blk 0.6TO
Laetner 49gms 15.1min 5.3pts (.582 .--- .763) 2.7reb 0.8ast 0.7stl 0.3blk 0.6TO
Dooling 74gms 16.0min 5.2pts (.403 .253 .780) 1.2reb 1.8ast 0.5stl 0.1blk 0.9TO
MDolea 80gms 14.7min 4.0pts (.447 .--- .610) 3.2reb 0.6ast 0.3stl 0.3blk 0.5TO
Andersn 65gms 17.7min 3.9pts (.456 .179 .818) 2.9reb 1.1ast 0.6stl 0.2blk 0.8TO

Note however the additional presence on the back half of the roster of what has become a Riley staple: stacks of old once great vets just to fill out the roster and provide veteran lockerroom voices even if they rarely have to play. Hence below the main rotation you had:

Alonzo Mourning 34yrs old, 11yr vet
Wesley Person 33yrs old, 10yr vet
Steve Smith 35yrs old 13yr vet

Just to hangout on the back of the bench, swap old war stories, and slap any kid on the back of his head who lost focus.

Conclusion: So How Did They Win 59 While We'll Win Sub-30?

1) DEFENSE. DEFENSE! Do you hear me Vivek? D-E-F-E-N-S-E!!! Truly is curious how this one seems to lead off every one of these studies, but there you have it, again. Two guys carried their entire offense, but that was more than enough with one of the league's best defenses as well.

2) Stable starters, clear roles. This was a highly starter centric team -- no bencher averaged more than 6.5pts, all 5 starters averaged 30+min. And they all had their own clear roles and portfolios. They were a brand new team, but the stability and consistency allowed them to develop quick chemistry with everybody knowing what was expected of them and of others. No chaos, no freelancing, no muddled roles or guys figuring it out.

3) Pasted on experience. As mentioned, this was a young team who only a year earlier had just drafted DWade and Haslem (helps to draft well too), but who suddenly saw a chance to get good immediately and jumped at the chance. The result was a team that still had a lot of young pieces having to fill rotation roles, and so Riley tried to counter that by going out and adding in as many experienced voices as he could. Not just guys who'd been in the league, but guys who had been to the mountaintop, which is where the Heat wanted to go. So along with their kiddie corps they had 6 players with 10 years or more of NBA experience (Jones, Laettner, Mourning, O'Neal, Person, Smith), 5 of whom had made All Star games, and all of whom (along with Shandon Anderson) were veterans of deep playoff runs.


Rudy's not turning into Wade anytime soon, but Cuz may already be better than aging Shaq, and you throw in Collison and that trio is already as good or better offensively than any three guys those '05 Heat could throw out. You want to emulate these Heat, a 59 win team that came within a game of the Finals, you don't need another star. They certainly didn't have one. But what they did have, and what you do need is defensive roleplayers, shooters, and as many playoff and championship experienced vets as you can get your hands on.
 
#2
Haslem and Eddie Jones were, IMO, light-years better at basketball than JT and BMac are currently.
Haslem helped pin down the paint, and has more instinctive basketball playing in him than JT ever could. There is SO much that Haslem did on the court that JT is oblivious to, it's unreal. These team comparisons are really just pointing out how badly the Kings need a real PF to be anywhere near these other teams.

And no team that is serious about competing should be starting BMac yet, god bless him. WAY too inconsistent and mistake-prone for close games.

The other, glaring difference between DMC/Rudy and Shaq/DWade is that Shaq/DWade were absolutely favored by the NBA, and had squads of refs to back up their play on the court with whistles.
Currently, neither DMC or Rudy would remotely get the kind of calls (and more importantly non-calls) that are required to make a long run in the playoffs.
It's not even remotely just about what statistical comparisons the players may have....

The direct answer to your question is - what would have happened if the players were swapped?
Regardless of how many regular season games they would have won, they would have been bounced by the second round of the playoffs because :

* Rudy would be shut down by harassing, overly-physical defenders and he wouldn't get many calls and his efficiency would be crippled. I highly doubt those amazing turn around, fade-away 19-footers would drop much in the playoffs.
* Demarcus would find himself in foul trouble every single game, and be ineffective because the refs would be baited into calling fouls a % of the time there's contact down low (floppers and instigators FTW!), and in the playoffs there's contact on EVERY PLAY, so the aggregate number of fouls would end up with Cousins having 5 before every 4th quarter, and he'd foul out of every other game and not be on the floor in crunch time (and not be very effective at defense since he'd have to hold back in fear of any contact by him getting the foul).

That's just the way it is right now, and any comparisons with playoff teams HAS to acknowledge this aspect of Cousins' game.
He simply cannot be on a winning playoff team if the refs (and the NBA) continue to treat him the way they have so far in his career.
Until the NBA starts to protect DMC like they do superstars, no team with Demarcus would go far in the playoffs. It's a statistical improbability, the way the playoff games are and the number of fouls that are called on his plays.