The 2015 KF.com Draft Big Board Part 3: Trade Down A Little

Capt. Factorial

trifolium contra tempestatem subrigere certum est
Staff member
#1
We continue the KF.com Draft Big Board project with our third installment made up of players that should be drafted a bit below the Kings' range. We probably won't be in a reasonable position to draft any of these players unless we trade down (though obviously there's nothing preventing us from falling in love with a guy on this list and taking him at #6). Players are not listed in any particular order.


Trade Down A Little (approximate draft position 11-20):


Frank Kaminsky (PF/C, Senior, 22 y.o., Wisconsin)
33.6 mpg - 18.8 ppg - 54.7% fgp - 58.1% 2pp - 41.6% 3pp - 8.2 rpg - 2.6 apg - 1.5 bpg

Stats (from 2015 NBA draft combine)
Height in shoes: 7'0.75"
Weight: 231 pounds
Wingspan: 6'11"
Standing Reach: 9'1.5"
Maximum Vertical Jump: N/A


Analysis:
I'll start by saying that I really, really like Kaminsky. I've watched his growth for the last four years, and grow he did. Of course one of the knocks on him is that what you see now is what you'll get. I think that's partially true. He's not going to become more athletic, but he's already the most skilled player in the draft. Kaminsky is probably a better player now than some of the players with "potential" will ever be. Kaminsky can score from anywhere on the floor. He's a deadly three point shooter, who, if you run at on the perimeter, can put the ball on the floor and go to the basket. He handles the ball very well for a seven footer. He's also a very good post player with good footwork, who can score with either hand. As a matter of fact, he did most of his scoring in the post. He's an excellent passer, with a terrific feel for the game. You could easily run the offense through him at times. Most scouts have him projected as a PF at the next level, which leads us to the main question being asked. Can he defend at the PF position in the NBA. He's an average athlete at best, and won't break the sound barrier running the floor. But he does have surprising lateral quickness, along with very good instincts that allowed him to defend fairly well at the college level. He outplayed Okafor on both ends of the floor in the tournament final. I think he might fare better guarding PF's than he would centers. Most centers in the league will be just as tall and a lot stronger than Kaminsky. Of course, in time, he'll get stronger as well. If you aren't familiar with him, and you could see how he looked his freshman year as opposed to now, you'd be amazed at the transformation. He's a very competitive player, and works hard on his game, as evidenced by his skill level. So it wouldn't surprise me to see him become a good enough defender as to not be a liability. He's not a shotblocker, but he did block 1.5 shots a game. It's possible that he'd block more shots as a help defender at the PF position. I think he'll get drafted somewhere between 14 and 20. But don't be surprised if some team decides to reach and pick him sooner. -- Bajaden


Myles Turner: (C, Freshman, 19 y.o., Texas)
22.2 mpg - 10.1 ppg - 51.3% 2pp - 27.4% 3pp - 83.9 FT% - 6.5 rpg - 2.6 bpg

Stats (from 2015 NBA draft combine)
Height in shoes: 6'11.5"
Weight: 239 pounds
Wingspan: 7'4"
Standing Reach: 9'4"
Maximum Vertical Jump: N/A


Analysis: Intriguing big man prospect with major questions, but pretty high upside as well. Looks like an excellent defensive prospect, who can protect the rim, but also control the defensive glass at the same time (24.9 DReb%, 12.3 Blk%) without fouling. Nonetheless fouls were a problem, since his post defense is not that good due to lack of base strength and agility. Struggled a bit to defend perimeter due to lack of mobility. Despite rangy frame is not really fast. This was apparently addressed recently as he underwent a series of tests that showed that his gluteal muscles are severely underdeveloped as a result of a growth spurt. Results of strengthening his glutes are not going to be apparent for some time, so he will be a bit of gamble. Offensively has interesting skillset: rather polished in the post, where he finishes with both hands and uses his length very well, but lacks bulk to establish position, which will be especially evident vs NBA centers; to counter that he has excellent, if inconsistent, jumpshot. Faceup game is lacking due to below average handles and lack of mobility. Probably made a mistake going to Texas, where he faced a lot of zone (couldn't work on his faceup game in a crowd) and was forced to space the floor for his teammates. Is a long-term project as he might struggle to defend anyone one-on-one at first due to lack of mobility at PF/lack of strength at C. If he bulks up and somewhat improves his mobility, projects to be an excellent inside defender with good shooting and ability to punish smaller guys in the post on offense. -- Gilles


Jerian Grant: (
PG, Senior, 22 y.o., Notre Dame)
37.1 mpg - 16.5 ppg - 47.8% fgp - 31.6% 3pp - 6.6 apg - 2.2 turnovers - 3.0 rpg

Stats (from 2015 NBA draft combine)
Height in shoes: 6'4.25"
Weight: 198 pounds
Wingspan: 6'7.5"
Standing Reach: 8'4"
Maximum Vertical Jump: N/A


Analysis: Jerian is the son of ex-NBA player, Harvey Grant, whose brother Horace also played in the NBA, so he has good genes. Jerian will probably be either the third or fourth PG taken in the draft, going somewhere between 15 and 25. He has sneaky athleticism with a quick first step off the dribble. He uses hesitation moves, and change of speed to keep his defender off balance. He's an unselfish player who is an excellent passer. He comes with a full bag of tricks and very good court vision. Individually he's a capable offensive player, who picks his spots. His weakness is his lack of strength, which shows up when he drives to the basket, or defensively, tries to fight to fight through picks. He runs the pick and roll very well, so his game should translate to the NBA. Defensively he's a good defender when he applies himself. There were times when it appeared to me that he was taking the day off. But he's blessed with good lateral quickness, and should be at least a respectable defender in the NBA, if not a good defender. He's not a great outside shooter, but he does demand guarding. Although this year he had the worst three point shooting season of his career at 31.6%, he shot 40.8% the year before and has a career average of 34.5%. Grant is a safe choice, with great size, who will at worst be a very good backup PG off the bench and could be a solid starter for some team down the road. --Bajaden


Sam Dekker (SF/PF, Junior, 20 y.o., Wisconsin)
31 mpg - 13.9 ppg - 52.5% fgp - 33.1% 3pp - 5.6 rpg

Stats (from 2015 NBA draft combine)
Height in shoes: 6'9"
Weight: 219 pounds
Wingspan: 6'11.5"
Standing Reach: 8'10"
Maximum Vertical Jump: 34.5"


Analysis: A tall, well-built forward used primarily at the SF spot in college but probably better suited for a stretch-four in the NBA. He has a jumper out to three-point distance and while his season percentage was modest at 33% he seemingly couldn't miss in the big games in the tournament. He has a good handle and can drive a bit, but doesn't have the speed you'd expect from a small forward. Wisconsin didn't feature his post game much, but it is there and with his size he'll be able to use it at the next level from time to time. At any rate, when he's at his best he's pretty aggressive on offense, though he would disappear for periods. He sees the floor pretty well and will occasionally drop a great dime. He's a very good rebounder both from the box out and crashing the boards from the perimeter. Defensively he needs some work. He basically never gives any help D and his lateral quickness is going to be a liability. His athleticism is also in question - in particular I think the second jump is just not there for him. Still, Dekker had a fantastic tournament run where he shot really well and his diverse offense is going to get him drafted pretty high. -- Capt. Factorial


Kevon Looney (SF/PF, Freshman, 19 y.o., UCLA)
30.9 mpg - 11.6 ppg - 47.0% fgp - 41.5% 3pp - 62.6% ftp - 9.2 rpg

Stats (from 2015 NBA draft combine)
Height in shoes: 6'9.25"
Weight: 222 pounds
Wingspan: 7'3.5"
Standing Reach: 9'2"
Maximum Vertical Jump: N/A


Analysis: Great rebounder with a nose for the ball. Gets rebounds in a crowd by using long arms to outreach opponents and tap the ball to himself. Uses wingspan to play disruptive perimeter defense, and can stay in front of smaller players. Scoops up a lot of loose balls. Not a great post defender, gets pushed around because he is too thin, but has a frame with great potential to add muscle. His ability to be an effective weakside shotblocker is evident but still developing. Offensively is more limited. Was primarily a putback threat early on. Post game is almost non-existent. Had trouble with the mid-range jumper but finally began knocking down open threes late in the season. Despite the improvement on his jumper, his free throw stroke is very poor. His drive to the basket is a definite weakness, often resulting in a difficult contested shot or a turnover. Still very raw and will get drafted largely on projection. Will likely settle into being a stretch-4 with rebounding skills if his jumper continues to improve. -- Capt. Factorial


Devin Booker (SG, Freshman, 18 y.o., Kentucky)
21.5 mpg - 10.0 ppg - 47.0% fgp - 41.1% 3pp - 2.0 rpg - 1.1 apg

Stats (from 2015 NBA draft combine)
Height in shoes: 6'5.75"
Weight: 206 pounds
Wingspan: 6'8.25"
Standing Reach: 8'6.5"
Maximum Vertical Jump: 34.5"


Analysis: Booker is one of the younger players in the draft, and likely made a good decision throwing his name in the ring. He has a good chance of being a lottery pick. He's an excellent shooter who can create his own shot with a variety of hesitation moves, stepbacks and jab steps. He shoots well off the dribble or coming off screens. He has good, but not great handles, but does a decent job of getting to the basket and finishing. His shooting form is almost picture perfect, and comes with a quick release. Ironically, at times he seems to shoot better when moving than when set, but he always squares up well regardless. He's a good and willing defender at the college level, sometimes being overly aggressive and getting into foul trouble. While his foot speed is just average, he appears to have above average lateral quickness and good instincts on defense. While he has good height for the SG position, he wasn't blessed with an above average wingspan, which is exactly the same as his height. I see him as a solid NBA player and potential starter in the future. --Bajaden


Montrezl Harrell (PF, Junior, 21 y.o., Louisville)
35.1 mpg - 15.7 ppg - 56.6% fgp - 24.3% 3pp - 59.7% ftp - 9.2 rpg - 1.2 bpg

Stats (from 2015 NBA draft combine)
Height in shoes: 6'7.5"
Weight: 253 pounds
Wingspan: 7'4.25"
Standing Reach: 9'1"
Maximum Vertical Jump: N/A


Analysis: Harrell was very heralded prior to his freshman year but did not really live up to expectations that - to the extent that a kid who was once considered a potential one-and-done is now a junior. On the bright side we're finally in position to make a pretty definitive statement about what sort of player he is. First and foremost, Harrell has all of the tools needed to be a spectacular PF defender at the NBA level. He can defend in the post against players who are significantly taller than him. He can also step out on the perimeter - the zone scheme that Louisville employs has Harrell switching out onto the wing (even onto a guard) fairly often, and he is able to effectively defend drives to the basket from perimeter players. He tends to make good rotations on defense, and he can definitely get up and block shots from the weakside. On top of that he's a strong and aggressive rebounder. I don't think he's the ideal player to put at the C at the next level, but he'll be able to effectively guard basically any PF, either post-up or stretch, that most NBA teams could put up against him. Offensively, Harrell is probably less a work in progress and more just not terribly good. He'll be fantastic in the clean-up, but his post game is not very strong. In addition to his questionable post game, he's got no jumper. Not only do his free throws not look good, but despite being a dreadful three-point shooter he attempts over one per game, a bad habit that needs to get fixed at the next level. At 6'7.5" he is a bit small, but he's got the strength to hold his own against a PF and he's got a terrific wingspan that will really complement his hard-nosed D, where he could be a difference-making defender in the end. -- Capt. Factorial


Cameron Payne (PG, Sophomore, 19 y.o., Murray St.)
38.2 mpg - 20.3 ppg - 45.6% fgp - 37.7% 3pp - 3.7 rpg - 6.0 apg - 2.1 spg

Stats (from 2015 NBA draft combine)
Height in shoes: 6'1.5"
Weight: 183 pounds
Wingspan: 6'7.25"
Standing Reach: 8'1.5"
Maximum Vertical Jump: 35.5"


Analysis: Payne is talented enough to eventually be a starter in the NBA, but he has some obstacles to overcome first. Number one is getting stronger. His lack of strength is holding him back on both ends of the floor. While he's a very good man on man defender, blessed with above average lateral quickness, he struggles defending the pick and roll. He has trouble fighting through the pick, and too often gives up pursuit. He also gets backed down by the occasional bigger, stronger opposing PG. However, he excels at playing the passing lanes averaging 2.4 steals a game. Offensively he's outstanding at running the pick and roll, and is deadly with his mid-range stop and pop, or dishing in the lane. I think he looks for his own shot a little too much, but a few careless passes aside, he's a very good passer. He only gets in trouble when he tries to make the impossible possible. His shot selection also needs to be improved. He takes too many forced shots, and off balance shots, sometimes early in the shot clock. Despite that, he still shot a respectable 37.7% from three. Correct the shot selection, and I can see him shooting in the 40 percent range. His form is good, and he has a very quick release. He has no problem creating his own shot. While he's not an elite athlete, he's an above average athlete, and a very good ball handler who can get into the lane at will. His weakness on offense is finishing at the basket, which he doesn't do often. He prefers to pull up and shoot, or throw up a floater once in the lane. Once again, this is a strength issue. I'm not sure how much weight he can carry since he has a long lanky body and a narrow frame. He has excellent basketball IQ, and is a very aggressive player on both ends of the court. He's a player that four or five years from now, could be the third best PG out of this draft. -- Bajaden


Kelly Oubre: (SF, Freshman, 19 y.o., Kansas)
21.0 mpg - 9.3 ppg - 49.7% 2pp (39.2% from mid-range) - 35.8% 3pp - 71.8 FT% - 5.0 rpg - 0.8 apg/1.2 TO - 1.1 spg

Stats (from 2015 NBA draft combine)
Height in shoes: 6'6.75"
Weight: 203 pounds
Wingspan: 7'2.25"
Standing Reach: 8'6.5"
Maximum Vertical Jump: 37.0"


Analysis: Raw project with very good physical tools for NBA wing. Has pretty good all-around game - can score from anywhere and in different ways, but doesn't have strong moves that give the defense problems - rather scores within the flow. Decent ballhandler and passer as he often acted as a top-of-the-arc facilitator. Wasn't beating people regularly off the dribble despite quick first step - for that he needs better control off the ball. Rebounds very well, especially pursuing out of the area rebounds. Defensively he uses his physical tools well, especially stopping penetration from quicker players, though obviously could use work on his technique as every raw young player. Team defense concepts are still rather hard for him to grasp, and that's where most of his problems will come on that end of the floor. Despite inconsistent PT and overall play was praised for his work ethic by Bill Self. -- Gilles


Bobby Portis: (PF/C, Sophomore, 20 y.o., Arkansas)
21.0 mpg - 9.3 ppg - 54.1% 2pp (37.6% from mid-range) - 46.7% 3pp - 73.7 FT% - 8.9 rpg - 1.2 apg/1.6 TO - 1.1 spg - 1.4 bpg

Stats (from 2015 NBA draft combine)
Height in shoes: 6'10.5"
Weight: 246 pounds
Wingspan: 7'2"
Standing Reach: 9'0.5"
Maximum Vertical Jump: 31.5"


Analysis: Very good all-around big man prospect. Offensively he's a face-up PF with solid ball-handling and shooting, though at this point he likes his jumper way too much - more than half of his shots were from mid-range and he made only 37.6% of them. At the same time whenever he could get to the rim, he finished extremely well (.754 at the rim FG%, more than half unassisted, basically same effectiveness as Towns). Doesn't have much of a post game. Long ball started falling for him, but it was less than 1 attempt per game, even if he made 46.7% of those. Smart player: doesn't force things and plays within himself. Good rebounder on both ends. Defensively doesn't project as an elite player, but plays solid defense, competes both under the basket and outside, has same dimensions as Towns, though Portis is more challenged vertically and lacks mobility. Despite activity and aggressiveness doesn't foul much. -- Gilles
 
#2
I think if we get another 1st round pick assuming we draft a big at 6, we should look at PGs.

Cameron Payne is a very interesting prospect. Comes from a small school and he posses a lot of traits you like. Good passer with the ability to score from anywhere on the floor. He's quick off the floor and he's a really pesky player. Even though he has very good shooting %s, I'm not sold on it. I think he is a capable shooter, but I don't think he's a good shooter. Consistency is the problem. His form just looks funky. On defense, there's a surprising stat that he only gave up around 32% FG to his opponents. Very surprising since he's only 6'1 180lbs.

I think he has a ton of potential on both ends of the floor.

Jerian Grant is another prospect to keep an eye on. Good overall player who has the size. 6'4 200lbs. He's a tremendous passer and playmaker. His size will help him a lot on the defensive end. I think his age is his only downside. He will be 23 at the start of the season. I think he's the type of player you draft because he's NBA ready. He can score in a variety of ways, but shooting is a problem. Compared to Payne, Grant needs to improve much more on shooting.
 

Capt. Factorial

trifolium contra tempestatem subrigere certum est
Staff member
#3
Cameron Payne is a very interesting prospect. ... On defense, there's a surprising stat that he only gave up around 32% FG to his opponents. Very surprising since he's only 6'1 180lbs.
That's a pretty remarkable defensive stat. I had no idea.

Jerian Grant is another prospect to keep an eye on. Good overall player who has the size. 6'4 200lbs. He's a tremendous passer and playmaker. His size will help him a lot on the defensive end. I think his age is his only downside. He will be 23 at the start of the season. I think he's the type of player you draft because he's NBA ready. He can score in a variety of ways, but shooting is a problem. Compared to Payne, Grant needs to improve much more on shooting.
And he's got a bit of hops, too:

 
#4
Frank Kaminsky - I don't like him. Don't get me wrong, he'll be a solid contributor for somebody, I just hope it's not the Kings. He reminds me too much of Brad Miller, a skinnier and a better deep ball version of Brad. Except Kaminsky is even worse than Miller on defense and if I have to watch him defend the bigs in the Western Conference for 82 games a season I will blow a gasket! Somehow I see him really striving in the Eastern Conference.

Myles Turner - On paper he is exactly the player I'm looking for. But in person, he just looks.... off. The way he runs (or tries to) is concerning to me. I know it's due to some medical issue that has been reported that may or may not get better. But I can't get over the way he moves, he loves like he's about to fall over. He's a 6'-11 guy who moves like a 7'-2" stiff... but his timing and his reaction is top notch; and he hustles and he plays hard. I think he will have a long career and he eventually could be a starter. He's not my top choices but I won't be too heart broken if the Kings picked him. Afterall we can do worse than picking a 6'-11 shotblocker who plays hard and can knock down threes.

Jerian Grant - He's one of those guys who put up good stats but I never get the sense that he is a dominant college player. Maybe its because he's unselfish and he never forces shots?.... but I don't think so. He seems to be a role player through and through and what you see is pretty much what you'll get. I think he's one of those PGs whose career will alternatives between starting and coming off the bench, like a Jarrett Jack/Darren Collison. He reminds me a bit of Brian Shaw.

Sam Dekker - I really like Dekker and I think he's underrated. He's got size, can shoot, athletic, and high Bball IQ. I don't think he's a star but I think he'll solve some team's SF hole for a long time. Reminds me a bit like Matt Harping.

Kelly Oubre - He needs time but I can see him developing into an Ariza type of wing.

.
 
#5
Frank Kaminsky - I don't like him. Don't get me wrong, he'll be a solid contributor for somebody, I just hope it's not the Kings. He reminds me too much of Brad Miller, a skinnier and a better deep ball version of Brad. Except Kaminsky is even worse than Miller on defense and if I have to watch him defend the bigs in the Western Conference for 82 games a season I will blow a gasket! Somehow I see him really striving in the Eastern Conference.

Myles Turner - On paper he is exactly the player I'm looking for. But in person, he just looks.... off. The way he runs (or tries to) is concerning to me. I know it's due to some medical issue that has been reported that may or may not get better. But I can't get over the way he moves, he loves like he's about to fall over. He's a 6'-11 guy who moves like a 7'-2" stiff... but his timing and his reaction is top notch; and he hustles and he plays hard. I think he will have a long career and he eventually could be a starter. He's not my top choices but I won't be too heart broken if the Kings picked him. Afterall we can do worse than picking a 6'-11 shotblocker who plays hard and can knock down threes.

.
I really like Kaminsky, but I highly doubt he'll be able to guard PFs in the NBA. Especially since PFs are becoming quicker and more agile.

Turner on the other hand lacks a lot of quickness. I think he's more suited as a C in the NBA.

Both of these players force Cousins into guarding the 4/ athletic and quicker big which will be problems when it comes to fouling. I think Cuz could do it, but that's 1 more thing for Cuz to focus on. I think he's also better guarding bigger guys.
 

dude12

Hall of Famer
#6
If the Kings were to decide that any of these guys were their guy, they had better trade down. It would be the smart move but honestly, they should take whichever guy remains at 6....WCS or Winslow or Mudiay or deal the pick. I can see them moving the pick and Ben or Nik and one of our PFs contract in a blockbuster bringing back a Lawson and or Faried and or pick.

The draft prospects listed above are not what this franchise needs right now.
 

Capt. Factorial

trifolium contra tempestatem subrigere certum est
Staff member
#9
http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/51805
since late last week there's been a lot of buzz among rival GMs that the Thunder promised Cameron Payne they'd take him at 14.
Seems to me that only about 1/4 - 1/3 of the "so-and-so has a promise" talk pans out. Could be, but there is a lot of smoke out there at this time of year.

BTW, I enjoyed this quote - best thing I've ever seen Chad Ford write:

Don't get out of jury duty. ... Trust me, if you were ever a defendant, you want the type of people on the jury that feel their too busy to actually be on a jury.
 
#11
https://twitter.com/dtdpodcast

Vantage sports, that offers great breakdown of NBA games into very small actions, apparently has NCAA data as well. The twitter account mentioned above started publishing some on NBA prospects. For exact meaning of each stat you better consult VS site, but I think those are fairly obvious:

name-----------Open 3pt FG%------Contest 3pt FG%-------FG% against
J. Anderson--------52.17----------------30.61-------------------44.19
S. Johnson---------45.24-----------------25.71-------------------39.67
K. Oubre-----------46.67-----------------25.37-------------------26.92
RJ Hunter---------35.71------------------13.04-------------------44.83
D. Booker----------51.52----------------38.67-------------------39.47

Booker is clearly an excellent overall shooter. Oubre, who is often called raw, might be much more effective 3&D guy than Johnson right from the start.
 
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