The 2015 KF.com Draft Big Board Part 2: Kings' Range

[funkykingston]

I swear it was just on the wiretap, they may have taken it down? I should have embedded a link in my original post.

Anyways...moot point now. I'm going to delete my post to avoid further confusion.

They might have - that sort of thing happens with them, likely because they get a rumor and post it before verifying the source.

I'm not opposed to the Kings shopping the pick though I don't think they'd net a player that could help them as much as WCS and certainly not one with star potential which you can get in the draft. But the biggest reason it seemed odd to me is that Vivek recently said that he expected Vlade to "draft well". Being that I still think Vivek's is the loudest voice in all things Kings I assumed that meant the Kings were keeping their pick.

 

[gunks]

http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/237892/Wolves-Willing-To-Consider-Trading-No-1-Overall-Pick

Actually putting a link in this one...

So, anyone think we have the assets to do it?

I'd ship out Rudy + 6 for Towns + whatevs. Would the Wolves do it? Probably not.... but a guy can dream.

 

[hrdboild]

What are peoples thoughts on Stanley Johnson? Just rewatched a couple of his games, and the dude really is impressive. He stands out on both ends and isn't one of those top players who disappears in games. He gets after it on the defensive end and really reminds me of a bigger Tyreke with his tendency to just bully his way to the rim. Especially if we're going to experiment with Rudy at the 4, grabbing a big strong SF like Johnson is certainly the style you want

I just wrote about Stanley a few posts up (here) -- look at #2. I really like Johnson -- he's in the top 3 on my wishlist. I like Mudiay a little better because he's also got elite size at his position, but I would feel very good about drafting Stanley Johnson because I really believe in his work ethic and just watching him play, I see an NBA player. Emmanuel Mudiay, Stanley Johnson, D'Angelo Russell, Willie Cauley-Stein, Jahlil Okafor, and Karl Anthony Towns are all very safe picks I think. Myles Turner has more bust potential, but I personally would lump him into that group talent-wise. Justise Winslow has a fairly significant flaw -- he's the size of a guard but has no mid-range game whatsoever. That makes him a bit of a risk. If he has to play SG, what do we do with Ben and Nik? He's very talented too though and I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up having a better career than his Duke teammate Jahlil Okafor.

I don't know enough about Hezonja or Porzingis to comment on them with any level of confidence. Both have some pretty impressive highlights on Youtube. Porzingis looks to me like he's got a lot of work to do to build his strength up to NBA standards, but the same would be true of Myles Turner and D'Angelo Russell to a lesser extent.

 

[funkykingston]

I think Stanley Johnson has a pretty high floor. I think he'll end up having a Joe Johnson like career. Better defensively and not as much a scorer but similar in terms of being a physical high level contributor though not a superstar.

 

[randymoss1881]

http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/237892/Wolves-Willing-To-Consider-Trading-No-1-Overall-Pick

Actually putting a link in this one...

So, anyone think we have the assets to do it?

I'd ship out Rudy + 6 for Towns + whatevs. Would the Wolves do it? Probably not.... but a guy can dream.

Come on man

 

[gunks]

Hahaha.... hey, stranger things have happened!

Kahn is still the GM there right?!

 

[The_Jamal]

I just wrote about Stanley a few posts up (here) -- look at #2. I really like Johnson -- he's in the top 3 on my wishlist. I like Mudiay a little better because he's also got elite size at his position, but I would feel very good about drafting Stanley Johnson because I really believe in his work ethic and just watching him play, I see an NBA player. Emmanuel Mudiay, Stanley Johnson, D'Angelo Russell, Willie Cauley-Stein, Jahlil Okafor, and Karl Anthony Towns are all very safe picks I think. Myles Turner has more bust potential, but I personally would lump him into that group talent-wise. Justise Winslow has a fairly significant flaw -- he's the size of a guard but has no mid-range game whatsoever. That makes him a bit of a risk. If he has to play SG, what do we do with Ben and Nik? He's very talented too though and I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up having a better career than his Duke teammate Jahlil Okafor.

I don't know enough about Hezonja or Porzingis to comment on them with any level of confidence. Both have some pretty impressive highlights on Youtube. Porzingis looks to me like he's got a lot of work to do to build his strength up to NBA standards, but the same would be true of Myles Turner and D'Angelo Russell to a lesser extent.

Agreed. I think Johnson ultimately becomes the guy in 3 years that we're asking "How the heck did he get taken ___?" What's crazy about Johnson is he's still just 18 years old, but he's already got many refined aspects to his game. And he's already a physical beast and a great athlete at 18; just imagine where he can be at age 21 as he continues to mature?

His struggles with finishing at the rim were a little strange considering a guy of his size/physicality and his ability to actually get to the rim, but I'd bet on him being able to correct it at the next level. He's just too physically gifted not to and he's got that killer work-ethic to go make that improvement.

Ultimately, he's a physical beast, a great athlete, and there's no real weakness in his game. I think he's very much the next iteration of Kawhi/Jimmy Butler/Draymond Green to come up.

 

[c-webb1s#1]

You bring up something that hasn't been talked about much: How does JT fit into the WCS picture? If WCS is drafted, how many minutes is he taking from Jason Thompson? And for every minute he does play in the place of Thompson what are you getting net-net? Are you getting more blocks? Probably. More weak side defense? Probably. Are you getting more one on one defense? Probably not. More rebounds? Doubtful. More offense? Definitely not. So when you stack the two sides up against each other, whet does that leave you with?

And if WCS is coming off the bench, is that the firepower you want to have from the bench? If the much tarred and feather bench was the main reason behind many of the Kings losses last year, how would WCS make that bench more effective?

Exactly! I dont doubt WCS will be a fine defensive role player in maybe 3 years or so but that fact is he is going to be a big liability on the offensive end. His rebounding rate was TERRIBLE this past season and that was against the weak competition in college. Hes also just terrible on offense, lazy in transition, easily fatigued, and plays defense more like its just a game of volleyball and nothing more.

Our bench needs help and WCS is not going to cut it, trade that pick and shore up the bench! I have a feeling WCS like all rookies is going to struggle his first year or two as he adjusts and if thats the case then he isnt going to be much help and we may be going into next season with practically the same squad.

but with that said, we are probably going to draft him so i guess ill pray he becomes something special

 

[c-webb1s#1]

Derek Bodner: Everyone I've talked to tonight seems like it's a foregone conclusion that the #sixers go Russell at 3 if he's available. Almost too obvious

Yeah Russell is just what they need and he has such a polished offensive game i think he can win ROY

 

[Gilles]

Exactly! I dont doubt WCS will be a fine defensive role player in maybe 3 years or so but that fact is he is going to be a big liability on the offensive end. His rebounding rate was TERRIBLE this past season and that was against the weak competition in college. Hes also just terrible on offense, lazy in transition, easily fatigued, and plays defense more like its just a game of volleyball and nothing more.

Our bench needs help and WCS is not going to cut it, trade that pick and shore up the bench! I have a feeling WCS like all rookies is going to struggle his first year or two as he adjusts and if thats the case then he isnt going to be much help and we may be going into next season with practically the same squad.

but with that said, we are probably going to draft him so i guess ill pray he becomes something special

This is LOL-worthy.

 

[c-webb1s#1]

This is LOL-worthy.

What about it exactly? The only thing i may have stretched was the playing defense like its volleyball but the rest is spot on!

 

[Gilles]

22 points per 100 possessions on .588TS%, 0.8 ast/TO ratio, most good teams just put a body on him all the time, same as what stretch 4s force teams to do; it's all about the role and his was being #5 offensive option - "big liability on the offensive end", "terrible on offense"
There were numerous occasions, when he was near his own basket on D, and then turned up first on the other end - "lazy in transition"
WCS averaged 26 minutes against good teams and more than 30 in last 4 tournament games - "easily fatigued"
WCS was freaking PF most of the time, who was either on the perimeter or contesting shots, KAT, Dakari, and Lyles were cleanup guys. Most bigs entering the draft played center, since they are usually much better equipped to protect the middle (even if they mediocre at it by NBA standards) than hang out outside on D. - "His rebounding rate was TERRIBLE this past season"

 

[twslam07]

What about it exactly? The only thing i may have stretched was the playing defense like its volleyball but the rest is spot on!

No, you're way off base. Gilles has it "spot on.".

 

[KingsCitizen]

This draft could actually go crazy if 1 of the small guys gets picked in the top 2.

For example, I don't think the Lakers FO will anoint Clarkson right away as Laker's PG of the future, given the kid was a 2nd round pick and stats on an underachieving teams are inflated.
They could actually go for a big PG knowing they will most likely enshrine Randle as a core player than Clarkson. And once Kobe retires, pretty soon, their backcourt will be meh!

Okafor (with his defensive liabilities) and Mudiay(on shooting concerns) could actually fall in this draft if guys like Hezonja, Johnson, or Porz (given all has actually potential on booth offense and defense) would ace their workouts.

To crazy things up, I'm open for Ben to be traded for a lower pick(i.e. Charlotte) to draft WCS so we can draft Hezonja (if he would ace workouts) at #6.

 

[c-webb1s#1]

22 points per 100 possessions on .588TS%, 0.8 ast/TO ratio, most good teams just put a body on him all the time, same as what stretch 4s force teams to do; it's all about the role and his was being #5 offensive option - "big liability on the offensive end", "terrible on offense"
There were numerous occasions, when he was near his own basket on D, and then turned up first on the other end - "lazy in transition"
WCS averaged 26 minutes against good teams and more than 30 in last 4 tournament games - "easily fatigued"
WCS was freaking PF most of the time, who was either on the perimeter or contesting shots, KAT, Dakari, and Lyles were cleanup guys. Most bigs entering the draft played center, since they are usually much better equipped to protect the middle (even if they mediocre at it by NBA standards) than hang out outside on D. - "His rebounding rate was TERRIBLE this past season"

-His 6.0 Defensive rebounds per 40mins adjusted is last among 2015 centers
-He fouls alot, not a great pairing with DMC and JT
-His jumper needs alot of work and i wouldnt count on him being able to provide us with ANY spacing for awhile
-Has a terrible post game, its clunky and he is not skilled in that area
-The reason he is playing more minutes vs good teams and in tournaments is because he is playing vs good teams and in tournaments lol If he could sustain playing those minutes why wouldnt he?

Now im not saying hes not gonna be a good players or hes going to be a bad player, all im saying is i dont want the Kings to invest the time its going to take for someone were not even sure is going pan out!

 

[Gilles]

Even after reading my post, you missed the fact, that WCS was a PF in college this season, and was tasked with defending the perimeter aggressively (he was matched with a lot of guards with driving game, often for whole possessions) and to contest penetration. This lead to the simple fact, that he was always out of position and on the strong side, while rebounds usually drop to the weak side.

In college KAT averaged 8.8 PFs per 100 poss., DMC - 7.7 (7.2 as an NBA rookie), Larry Sanders - 6.6 (7.2), Alex Len - 6.0(6.8), Derrick Favors - 5.7 (8.5), Meyers Leonard - 5.7 (7.3), Kenneth Faried - 5.5 (5.7), Tristan Thompson - 5.3 (4.9), Thomas Robinson - 5.1 (6.0), Nikola Vucevic - 5.0 (7.3), Nerlens Noel - 4.9(4.5), Terrence Jones - 4.9 (3.8), WCS - 4.8, Steven Adams - 4.6(8.5), Andre Drummond - 4.7(6.1), Miles Plumlee - 4.5 (4.8), Mason Plumlee - 4.3(7.0), Ed Davis - 3.9 (5.9), Anthony Davis - 3.7(3.0), John Henson - 3.0 (5.1).
Anyone wants to bet, that freshman KAT will average less than 9 personal fouls per game (even 10 seems like a safe bet, but that would just be ridiculous) or junior WCS will average more than 5.5 PFpg?

So you got back to shaky jumper and lack of post game. No argument here. But as for "i wouldnt count on him being able to provide us with ANY spacing for awhile", please re-read the part, where I noted, that at some point good teams decided to put a body on him at all time, when he's within 15 feet of the basket, rather than give up constant allez-oops.

-The reason he is playing more minutes vs good teams and in tournaments is because he is playing vs good teams and in tournaments lol If he could sustain playing those minutes why wouldnt he?

Not sure, what this means, but against not so good teams he got less minutes, since those were blowouts.

 

[206Fan]

This draft could actually go crazy if 1 of the small guys gets picked in the top 2.

For example, I don't think the Lakers FO will anoint Clarkson right away as Laker's PG of the future, given the kid was a 2nd round pick and stats on an underachieving teams are inflated.
They could actually go for a big PG knowing they will most likely enshrine Randle as a core player than Clarkson. And once Kobe retires, pretty soon, their backcourt will be meh!

Okafor (with his defensive liabilities) and Mudiay(on shooting concerns) could actually fall in this draft if guys like Hezonja, Johnson, or Porz (given all has actually potential on booth offense and defense) would ace their workouts.

To crazy things up, I'm open for Ben to be traded for a lower pick(i.e. Charlotte) to draft WCS so we can draft Hezonja (if he would ace workouts) at #6.

I think our only chance at Mudiay is if the Lakers pass on drafting a PG. Sixers will draft the next best PG.

I really like Hezonja and I feel like he may come over next year, but rookie pains suck. I think he has the Rudy Fernandez type of attitude in him and I think we need more of that on this team.

I'm very open to trading Ben depending on what we can get and how we can replace him.

 

[funkykingston]

I think our only chance at Mudiay is if the Lakers pass on drafting a PG. Sixers will draft the next best PG.

I really like Hezonja and I feel like he may come over next year, but rookie pains suck. I think he has the Rudy Fernandez type of attitude in him and I think we need more of that on this team.

I'm very open to trading Ben depending on what we can get and how we can replace him.

I think the Lakers will take Okafor. Not because Clarkson had a surprising season and not because they'll likely make a strong push for Rondo but simply because a 19 year old big who you can dump the ball into the low post and expect a basket is a great piece to rebuild around. Okafor has some really noticeable warts - bad rebounding fundamentals, shaky defense etc but he's still a much more rare type of player and a much smaller gamble IMO.

Russell makes complete sense for Philly but who knows with Hinkie. The real question is whether the Knicks take Mudiay. He has the kind of size that Jackson likes for triangle PGs but he's a very different type of player. Would he take Winslow instead? Gamble on Porzingis? Add Hezonja's shooting? Try to build up the defense with WCS?

I think the top tier is Towns, Okafor and Russell leaving the Knicks with the fourth pick in a presumed four player draft. I think odds are that Jackson trades the pick.

Personally I'd love to get Mudiay and WCS but I don't see the Kings having the ammunition to get that done.

If Mudiay and WCS are both gone at 6 and the options are Winslow, Johnson, Kaminsky, Turner, Hezonja, Porzingis etc then I'd hope the Kings try to trade down a few slots and pick up another asset and/or dump Landry's contract.

 

[Kingster]

Exactly! I dont doubt WCS will be a fine defensive role player in maybe 3 years or so but that fact is he is going to be a big liability on the offensive end. His rebounding rate was TERRIBLE this past season and that was against the weak competition in college. Hes also just terrible on offense, lazy in transition, easily fatigued, and plays defense more like its just a game of volleyball and nothing more.

Our bench needs help and WCS is not going to cut it, trade that pick and shore up the bench! I have a feeling WCS like all rookies is going to struggle his first year or two as he adjusts and if thats the case then he isnt going to be much help and we may be going into next season with practically the same squad.

but with that said, we are probably going to draft him so i guess ill pray he becomes something special

c-webb, you and I have got to stick together. I think we're the club of 2 on this board with this point of view. Can we find a third musketeer?

 

[Big Cuz 15]

Exactly! I dont doubt WCS will be a fine defensive role player in maybe 3 years or so but that fact is he is going to be a big liability on the offensive end. His rebounding rate was TERRIBLE this past season and that was against the weak competition in college. Hes also just terrible on offense, lazy in transition, easily fatigued, and plays defense more like its just a game of volleyball and nothing more.

Our bench needs help and WCS is not going to cut it, trade that pick and shore up the bench! I have a feeling WCS like all rookies is going to struggle his first year or two as he adjusts and if thats the case then he isnt going to be much help and we may be going into next season with practically the same squad.

but with that said, we are probably going to draft him so i guess ill pray he becomes something special

there were reports he was checking the best offensive player which could have been a guard. he's super athletic but it makes me wonder if that is enough to grab some boards when hes out on the perimeter.

 

[Kingster]

I like Hezonja. That's assuming that the Big 4 are gone. I love his athleticism, shot, versatility, and BBIQ. He can be a legit 2-3. And I don't mind his cockiness at all. I like it. As for the fact, we already have McLemore and Sauce, it's immaterial to me. Why should this draft selection be held hostage to the potential failures of the previous two? I'll draft the best player available, period. Drafting guys is hard enough. We just have to take a look at the Kings' history to see that. When you start to incorporate other considerations into your draft decision, such as how many two-guards you have on your team, or the fact you need a weak-side shot blocker, you just increase your chance of failure. Use trades and FA to clean up redundancies and inadequacies, not the draft.

PS Hezonja has the athletic ability, BBIQ, and skill to be a two-way player, which I value considerably.

 

[gunks]

I have to agree with that.... go BPA when you're in the top ten.

If it's a wash, go with fit.

I feel one could make the case for a number of players in our range, hence all these interesting arguments.

I'd be happiest with WCS myself, but I'd also be down with Winslow or Johnson. If we gamble on one of the euros, I'll maintain cautious optimism, as both those guys have ludicrous ceilings.

 

[Kingster]

there were reports he was checking the best offensive player which could have been a guard. he's super athletic but it makes me wonder if that is enough to grab some boards when hes out on the perimeter.

He's been a very consistent rebounder in college - rebounding one rebounding for every four minutes played in each year of college ball.

 

[Dime Dropper]

Exactly! I dont doubt WCS will be a fine defensive role player in maybe 3 years or so but that fact is he is going to be a big liability on the offensive end. His rebounding rate was TERRIBLE this past season and that was against the weak competition in college. Hes also just terrible on offense, lazy in transition, easily fatigued, and plays defense more like its just a game of volleyball and nothing more.

I'm not sure you could be more wrong if you actively tried.

 

[The_Jamal]

there were reports he was checking the best offensive player which could have been a guard. he's super athletic but it makes me wonder if that is enough to grab some boards when hes out on the perimeter.

here's the thing. Boogie's running mate doesn't have to be a brilliant rebounder because Boogie is always in fantastic position for boarding and has been a consistent top 5 rebounder in the NBA the past couple seasons. There's only so many rebounds that can be had during a game.

So WCS running all over the floor to guard people and being out of position to board really doesn't concern me. We're never going to be a bad rebounding team with Boogie.

 

[The_Jamal]

I'd like to hear that answer too. But I'm starting to feel like Mudiay may slide.

As for Jason Thompson, to start the season I'm not sure anything would change for JT if WCS were drafted. He'd likely begin the season as the starter at PF unless Karl moves Gay to that spot. Long term it would likely mean Thompson gets moved to the first big off the bench, spelling both Boogie and Cauley-Stein.

As for WCS vs Jason Thompson if you look at things just in terms of individual stats you probably would think it's more or less a wash. Probably slightly more blocks and steals, probably fewer rebounds etc. But I'm not so sure Cauley-Stein would provide less offense. After all JT gave the Kings 6 points on 47% shooting in 25 minutes this season. I'd expect WCS to shoot a higher percentage and put up the same points on fewer shots just based on crashing the boards and getting out in transition.

But beyond individual stats, where you'd see a HUGE difference is in the team's pick and roll defense. And that's regardless of how Karl wants to play PnRs. If they want to down then WCS can protect a lot of ground baseline with Cousins helping or vice versa. If they show then WCS has the lateral quickness to actually contain guards and still get back to his man. If they switch you've got a guy who can again hold his own (unlikely as you don't want Collison or McLemore/Stauskas on a big) and if they blitz then you have a very long player denying the pass while still having Cousins as a defensive anchor down low.

Lots of options. Which is especially good for a Kings team that has been awful against the pick and roll for years.

And more than that, he's a guy who played in the same sort of dribble drive offense that Karl is going to install and who makes much better decisions both defensively and with the ball on offense than Jason Thompson.

That + vastly improved weakside/help defense. JT and Cuz are both phenominal man defenders, but both guys struggle with being help defenders (although Cuz improved a lot this season in this area). JT is just flat out slow on defensive rotations and our bigs inability to rotate were the root of a lot of our defensive problems last year. WCS would fix a lot of that.

 

[Dime Dropper]

WCS will likely be an above average rebounder at the next level. Playing next to Cuz will drop those numbers down, but he's certainly not going to be a weak, or even mediocre, rebounder.

People love to blindly look at stats without context. WCS has played with very strong rebounders throughout his time at Kentucky, and played limited minutes.

WCS per 40 freshman stats: 14ppg 10.5rpg 3.5bpg 1.4spg
D. Jordan per 40 freshman stats: 15.8ppg 11.9ppg 2.5bpg 0.4spg

This despite the fact that WCS was playing with better rebounders and against better competition. Jordan just averaged 15rpg! WCS is probably never going to do that, especially not next to Cousins, but let's stop pretending that rebounding is going to be a weakness for him. With his size, length, leaping ability, quickness, timing and hands, there's no way he's going to be an average rebounder.

I'm not even going to mention how much better WCS is than Jordan defensively at the same stage of their development. WCS is head and shoulders above Jordan, and a better all round athlete too. Guys with that size and athletic ability just do not fail in the NBA, and they are extremely hard to get your hands on.

 

[Gilles]

So who disagrees, that Serge Ibaka would be almost perfect next to Boogie? If you take DReb% of non-rookies, who played more than 1000 minutes this season and averaged at least 20 mpg, Serge's career DReb% would be outside of top50, just above Marvin Williams.

 

[206Fan]

I think the Lakers will take Okafor. Not because Clarkson had a surprising season and not because they'll likely make a strong push for Rondo but simply because a 19 year old big who you can dump the ball into the low post and expect a basket is a great piece to rebuild around. Okafor has some really noticeable warts - bad rebounding fundamentals, shaky defense etc but he's still a much more rare type of player and a much smaller gamble IMO.

Russell makes complete sense for Philly but who knows with Hinkie. The real question is whether the Knicks take Mudiay. He has the kind of size that Jackson likes for triangle PGs but he's a very different type of player. Would he take Winslow instead? Gamble on Porzingis? Add Hezonja's shooting? Try to build up the defense with WCS?

I think the top tier is Towns, Okafor and Russell leaving the Knicks with the fourth pick in a presumed four player draft. I think odds are that Jackson trades the pick.

Personally I'd love to get Mudiay and WCS but I don't see the Kings having the ammunition to get that done.

If Mudiay and WCS are both gone at 6 and the options are Winslow, Johnson, Kaminsky, Turner, Hezonja, Porzingis etc then I'd hope the Kings try to trade down a few slots and pick up another asset and/or dump Landry's contract.

I agree, if WCS gets picked, I wouldn't mind trading down and dumping Landry along with it. All of those players you named are very good.

I like Hezonja. That's assuming that the Big 4 are gone. I love his athleticism, shot, versatility, and BBIQ. He can be a legit 2-3. And I don't mind his cockiness at all. I like it. As for the fact, we already have McLemore and Sauce, it's immaterial to me. Why should this draft selection be held hostage to the potential failures of the previous two? I'll draft the best player available, period. Drafting guys is hard enough. We just have to take a look at the Kings' history to see that. When you start to incorporate other considerations into your draft decision, such as how many two-guards you have on your team, or the fact you need a weak-side shot blocker, you just increase your chance of failure. Use trades and FA to clean up redundancies and inadequacies, not the draft.

PS Hezonja has the athletic ability, BBIQ, and skill to be a two-way player, which I value considerably.

I agree with this too. I think we have to consider BPA, but we also have to consider our team needs.

 

[Hoovtrain]

If Russell is there at #3 or #4, what do you think it would take, coupled with #6, to move into one of those slots to nab him?