Ongoing draft/lottery discussion [OPEN SPOILERS]

[Kingster]

He's going to be better offensively than you think because he's so good at moving off the ball, running the floor, catching lobs and cleaning up the offensive glass. You seem to think he's completely inept offensively - not the case. He has excellent hands and is very coordinated. He's definitely not going to hurt any team offensively unless they're relying on him to be a scorer. He'd offer more to us offensively than JT. We alsmot never throw the ball to JT to go to work. He takes the occasional jumper. WCS will bring more than that just by beating his man down the court and cutting to the basket.

That may be. Quickness and speed are more valuable assets in the NBA than in college for guards, imo. It may be that WCS's quickness and speed will be accentuated in the pros in comparison to college. If he was a ball handler I'd have more confidence in that view. As a power forward with limited ball handling skills I don't have as much confidence in that line of thinking.

I don't think WCS is completely inept offensively. I just think that for a college player he was below average offensively, therefore one shouldn't believe that he's going to be average, much less above average in the pros. I don't see how that line of thinking is very radical. In fact, I had the same point of view of Jimmer prior to his draft - he had average quickness for a college guard, and average ball handling for a college guard, so why should one believe that he wouldn't be below average in the NBA in each of those categories?

 

[bajaden]

Agreed. And for some reason I don't believe Divac has that bias. Maybe because he was one highly skilled Euro. In fact, maybe on the margin, he has a bias toward Euros. Karl has talked about the fact that Euros are generally more skilled than American players, and Karl yearns for highly skilled players. If all other things are equal, why wouldn't you choose a more skilled Euro over a less skilled American player? Also, consider that time is of the essence. There isn't the time to draft a less-skilled American and develop his skills because of the risk of losing Cousins, so why not draft a more skilled Euro who will take less time to develop?

No reason at all, unless maybe in the case where the american player is more ready to play than the euro player. That aside, I think some of the bias, if you want to call it that comes from the fact that very few of us have seen the european players play. I certainly fall into that category. I can't tell you how many college games I watched this past season. At least 5 or 6 a day, some of them twice. But I saw Porzingis play in an actual game twice, and Hezonja once, and in that game he played a whole 11 minutes. Whoopi! So, I'm supposed to take the word of media pundits, who in some cases, I already have disagreement with on some college players that I have seen. Porzingis looks like a player with a lot of talent and potential, and I can see him playing in the right situations. But make no mistake, he has never, in his entire european career, had to deal with the speed or physicality he'll face in the NBA. Some european players adapt, and live up to expectations. But some can't handle it, and end up being the next Vesley.

However, I have no doubt that Cauley-Stein can adapt. He'll have his periods of struggling, but he'll be productive sooner than later. Porzingis has more upside that may or may not be realized. So if you say (not you) that we need players that can help right now, and then say we should draft Porzingis, then I question your thinking, because he's less likely than Stein to accomplish that. I admit that my knowledge of Porzingis is limited, so I'll defer to Vlade where he' concerned. But personally, when the safer of the two choices is almost exactly what we say we've been looking for, I'll take it.

As a footnote, I think your selling WCS a little short on the offensive side of the ball. First, you sort of imply that he'll be a step back. Really? JT last season averaged 5 shots a game, and 6 points a game. To these old aging eyes, that's not much of a standard to live up to, and I seriously doubt that Cauley-Stein is incapable of equaling or surpassing that standard. I suspect that on hustle alone, he'll be a step up, and I also suspect that you'll see him show off some offensive skill that he wasn't allowed to show at Kentucky. But on the other side of the ball, he'll more than make up for any deficiencies on offense. He's one of the best P&R defenders I have ever seen. He may struggle at times against some of the bigger centers, man to man in the post, but with added muscle and core strength, he'll eventually overcome that problem. He has a mid-range jumpshot, and if and when he becomes efficient with it, not much more is needed from him.

 

[206Fan]

Your description of the "package" is a little vague. Would I trade McLemore? Sure, depending on who I was trading him for. Would I trade him straight up for a draft pick? Maybe, if it was the first or second pick in the draft, but that's about it. McLemore has more value than that. As part of a package? Once again maybe, depending on what the package is. The last thing I want to do is trade McLemore for, lets say the 11th pick in the draft, and a veteran 33 year old SG, and then have McLemore turn into the next Jimmy Butler a couple of years from now.

Package would be something like McLemore+Landry for 9th pick+Zeller. I agree with you, I do think we are gambling a lot here, but it really depends on how the roster shapes at the end. If we drafted Mudiay, we'd have a huge hole at PF. If we drafted WCS instead of Mudiay, we're missing out on a potential star PG. I'm torn if we'd have to pick between the two players.

Also I think if we do trade Ben, we'd have to heavily assume that we're getting a good replacement somewhere. Trading Ben wouldn't be the best idea to acquire talent, but you have to give, to get.

 

[bajaden]

If Mudiay falls to us there's no way I'm trading him for Lawson. Star potential on both sides of the ball on a rookie contract for Lawson and his 12-13M/Y contract? No thanks.

I btw agree with the need to get players who can help now, that's a reason why I'm a fan of WCS. If he's not there at 6 though then I'm going with potential although I'm not yet 100% certain I'd pick him either, have to see who else would be on the board when we pick. Have to see how some of these workouts go. Just the situation you have to deal with when picking 6 instead of top 3. I'm not trading high end potential for a decent vet who could help us for a year or two and that's based on looking around and not seeing starter level players I'd want on the trade block currently. That can change of course but I'm not hearing about any intriguing players being available aside maybe Bradley.

This season I wasn't even planning on needing or using the draft to help us. I've been mentally focused on free agency all along. It's a sad state that we're even in position to be picking 6th. So I really don't have much of an issue picking a guy with potential as at 6 there will be a few choices of guys with high end potential(that's a strength of this draft). My attention has been on free agency all along.

Part of my thinking is our starting 5 did pretty damn good at times. It was SG which hurt us most along with our bench. Fixing the SG issue was going to come in free agency anyway so add a Matthews or Afflalo to what we have and that plugs a major weakness. Other major weakness is our bench so even going with a guy who has high potential, he should help our bench next year, whether a Mudiay or Porzingis. Then we've got to get a backup for Cuz either through free agency or a minor trade.

One thing I disagree with some here on is that I also think WCS is a project. He'll help but his feel for the game and offensive acumen isn't at the level I'm certain he can step in and start for us ahead of JT. He also has to get a fair amount stronger. He got pushed around at Kentucky at times. I question his motor. Has great defensive tools but also comes with question marks. Anyone we pick at 6 is going to be a project, including WCS.

I agree with a lot of what you say. One thing I'll nit pic with is WCS's motor. I think after his freshman year, that was a reasonable question to bring up. There were times when he appeared to lost focus, or disappear. But not so this past season. I can't remember one time when the thought passed through my mind questioning his motor. Also, just to be clear for everyone, I'm not against drafting a player that will take a couple of years to develop, because he has a great upside. My response was to those who on one hand said they wanted someone that could contribute right away, but then were advocating that we draft a player that in all likelyhood won't be able to contribute right away.

I agree that in general out starting five was at worse adequate. I think it was better than that, but just my opinion. Our weakness, was maybe to some extent, a lack of consistent contribution from the SG position, and a general weakness of perimeter defense, and in particular, defending the pick and roll. While I give JT credit for improving his P&R defense, it was still lacking, along with his help defense. We also lacked a productive bench, and in particular a solid backup center. One of the reasons I want WCS, is because he solves several of those problems.

 

[funkykingston]

Package would be something like McLemore+Landry for 9th pick+Zeller. I agree with you, I do think we are gambling a lot here, but it really depends on how the roster shapes at the end. If we drafted Mudiay, we'd have a huge hole at PF. If we drafted WCS instead of Mudiay, we're missing out on a potential star PG. I'm torn if we'd have to pick between the two players.

Also I think if we do trade Ben, we'd have to heavily assume that we're getting a good replacement somewhere. Trading Ben wouldn't be the best idea to acquire talent, but you have to give, to get.

If Charlotte were interested in McLemore for the 9th pick and WCS were on the board I'd make that deal without hesitation.

I like Ben and I think he will continue to develop but 3&D wings are a lot easier to find than star PGs or athletic defensive bigs.

 

[bajaden]

Package would be something like McLemore+Landry for 9th pick+Zeller. I agree with you, I do think we are gambling a lot here, but it really depends on how the roster shapes at the end. If we drafted Mudiay, we'd have a huge hole at PF. If we drafted WCS instead of Mudiay, we're missing out on a potential star PG. I'm torn if we'd have to pick between the two players.

Also I think if we do trade Ben, we'd have to heavily assume that we're getting a good replacement somewhere. Trading Ben wouldn't be the best idea to acquire talent, but you have to give, to get.

Not to beat a dead horse, but to my mind, WCS solves more problems that we have than Mudiay does. Not that I wouldn't love to have Mudiay or Russell. I love Russell. But while our PG position may not be perfect, its not a position of dire need. Improving out P&R defense is, along with guarding the basket, along with having a competent backup center, a duty that could be shared by both JT and WCS. Huge improvement over Hollins. If you draft WCS, and then trade McLemore plus Landry, and I think the Landry part is a big if, (fingers crossed), and if you think Stauskas isn't going to be ready to step up yet, then you have to acquire a veteran in freeagency. There is another PG that I really like and that's Cameron Payne. The ninth pick would be a bit of a reach, but he may prove to be worthy of a top ten pick down the road.

Of course the other option would be to draft Mudiay, or Russell who ever fell to us, make the trade and draft Turner, or Kaminsky with the ninth pick. Or not....

 

[randymoss1881]

Take WCS without hesitation than when Denver drafts Mario, Johnson, or Winslow we trade them Nik/ Landry for Chandler/Foye.

 

[Kingster]

As a footnote, I think your selling WCS a little short on the offensive side of the ball. First, you sort of imply that he'll be a step back. Really? JT last season averaged 5 shots a game, and 6 points a game. To these old aging eyes, that's not much of a standard to live up to, and I seriously doubt that Cauley-Stein is incapable of equaling or surpassing that standard. I suspect that on hustle alone, he'll be a step up, and I also suspect that you'll see him show off some offensive skill that he wasn't allowed to show at Kentucky. But on the other side of the ball, he'll more than make up for any deficiencies on offense. He's one of the best P&R defenders I have ever seen. He may struggle at times against some of the bigger centers, man to man in the post, but with added muscle and core strength, he'll eventually overcome that problem. He has a mid-range jumpshot, and if and when he becomes efficient with it, not much more is needed from him.

I never thought I'd be saying this, but I think you're selling JT short when it comes to a comparison of WCS on the offensive end. I may have a lot of questions about many things concerning players in this draft, but I don't have any question that JT is a superior offensive player to WCS. And JT's meager numbers are not an argument for WCS; just the opposite. Five years from now might WCS be better offensively than JT? Sure. But the clock is ticking.

 

[Spike]

Take WCS without hesitation than when Denver drafts Mario, Johnson, or Winslow we trade them Nik/ Landry for Chandler/Foye.

So, is it a win-win if both teams lose?

 

[Dime Dropper]

I never thought I'd be saying this, but I think you're selling JT short when it comes to a comparison of WCS on the offensive end. I may have a lot of questions about many things concerning players in this draft, but I don't have any question that JT is a superior offensive player to WCS. And JT's meager numbers are not an argument for WCS; just the opposite. Five years from now might WCS be better offensively than JT? Sure. But the clock is ticking.

JT might be more skilled at the moment, but that does not = effectiveness. WCS will make much better use of his athleticism offensively in his minutes than JT does with his superior skill. I will be astounded if WCS is not putting up better numbers than JT within two years. He might not be doing it with jump shots, but putting the ball in the basket is all that counts.

WCS also has far, far better hands than JT.

 

[Gary]

The envelope was bent in 85 before being placed inside, it was not frozen.

This is the only real suspicious lottery I've seen where I wonder, besides the outcomes, but no evidence.

Stern threw that envelope into the container trying to bend the corner. I don't see that it was fully bent on the outside.

 

[Iced Espresso]

Stern threw that envelope into the container trying to bend the corner. I don't see that it was fully bent on the outside.

That picture is from someone else putting the envelope in, Stern did not touch it until after they spun the wheel. The bent corner was there before it was placed inside, now if you think it got bent worse later fine. The point is the process was bs, and enough to call it into question and change how it was done.

 

[VF21]

well the pick was just about what we all expected.... Mostly because the lottery is rigged. If it aint rigged why do they do it behind closed doors. Everyone in the room is beholden to the NBA. It certainly seems like a rigged scenario. And the fact that big market teams seem to always get great draft picks is a red flag... Lakers score AGAIN ! Kings get butkiss...

You really need to read up on how the lottery works. Or not... I guess there's always a need for some kind of conspiracy theory.

 

[randymoss1881]

View attachment 5290

So, is it a win-win if both teams lose?

Lol Chandler instantly becomes our beat perimeter defender and shooter and Foyes a great shooter. I know you don't believe that nonsense that we become a worse team subbing chandler/Foye for Nik.

 

[Sac.1989]

we need this kid WCS more than anything. He helps us a long way more than any other potential pick at our position can.

for now im just hoping he slips to us like boogie did and that this isnt another noah/hawes situation. that would be shattering

 

[Gary]

That picture is from someone else putting the envelope in, Stern did not touch it until after they spun the wheel. The bent corner was there before it was placed inside, now if you think it got bent worse later fine. The point is the process was bs, and enough to call it into question and change how it was done.

My bad... The guy that threw it in the corner bent ever more.. And stern was turning over the envelopes looking for the bent corner. It was pretty dang obvious lol..

 

[Spike]

Lol Chandler instantly becomes our beat perimeter defender and shooter and Foyes a great shooter. I know you don't believe that nonsense that we become a worse team subbing chandler/Foye for Nik.

#Analytics

 

[bajaden]

I never thought I'd be saying this, but I think you're selling JT short when it comes to a comparison of WCS on the offensive end. I may have a lot of questions about many things concerning players in this draft, but I don't have any question that JT is a superior offensive player to WCS. And JT's meager numbers are not an argument for WCS; just the opposite. Five years from now might WCS be better offensively than JT? Sure. But the clock is ticking.

Excuse me, but I was talking about production, actual results, not pie in the sky that could be. JT averages 6 pt's a game, that's a fact, and he averages 5 shots a game, that is also a fact. You said that WCS would result negatively on our offense, and I rebutted by saying that WCS would have no problem equaling JT's numbers, and therefore wouldn't be a negative. This isn't about what someone could do, its about what someone did do. JT might be more offensively skilled, but it doesn't matter a tinkers damm if it doesn't add up to results. I'm not sure what your end game is. Everyone has talked for ages about wanting to improve our defense, and now, hopefully, we'll have a chance to draft the SEC defensive player of the year, who will be a better defensive player than JT the very moment he walks onto the court. Are we really going to argue over 6 pt's a game.

Personally I think WCS will have an easier time scoring in the NBA where players can't just live in the paint, and where the spacing is better. Willie's problems in posting up in college mostly came from not being able to recognize a double quickly enough. When going against just one defender, he was a much better post player. I seriously doubt he'll get doubled in the NBA. At least not at first. Your painting a picture of him as totally inept. Still raw? Yes, but not incapable. He's very good in the pick and roll with quick cuts to the basket. I've seen him standing at the foul line with the ball, and with one step toward the basket, dunk the ball. Your talking about a seven footer that has a 38 inch vertical. He might end up being the fastest player on the team.

 

[bajaden]

Just a few video highlights.

 

[Gilles]

Mario and Kristaps were playing basketball from very early age and moved to Spain at the age of 15 to attend basketball academies, where they concentrated on improving their skills. As far as skill development goes both are very far on their developmental curve. They naturally become better players as their bodies mature, but I wouldn't expect massive expansion of their skillsets.

College teams OTOH actually do not concentrate on player development, so guys, who show significant improvements year to year, likely have excellent work ethic, since they have to work on their own a lot.

So here's an outrageous thought: WCS at 22 y.o. has more untapped potential skillwise than both euros at 20. For the same reason I don't think Hezonja is going to be a much better player than Ben in 5 years. Mario's biggest advantage over Ben would be his size/length.

Porzingis is maturing/getting stronger and you can see it in many things: his FT rate almost doubled from last season, and went from atrocious to just below average as he's able to be more physical; he fouls less as he deals with physicality better; defensive rebounding rate risen from bad to average as he holds position better. At the same his percentages from the field and passing effectiveness stayed the same. So when I posted those block/PF numbers I implied, that Porzingis is a good shot-blocker, but is pretty far from elite ones coming out of Europe recently. As for physicality and body type he's nowhere near ready to deal with strength and quickness of NBA players, and when he bulks up, Kristaps might lose a step like Bargnani, Valanciunas and Motiejunas did.

P.S. Like my highlight mix of WCS better : out of all dunks I left only those, where he has to take steps or a dribble after catching, or where he makes a play near his team's basket, and then is the first to arrive on the other end.

 

[ParniValjak]

While most of us have our hearts set on Willie Cauley-Stein, what do we do if he goes before our pick, specifically to Magic at 5?!

Those guys love stacking up defensive, athletic players. Payton, Oladipo, Harkless, Gordon...etc. I have no doubt they will have strong interest in him, especially if Thibs ends up being their coach.

 

[Iced Espresso]

While most of us have our hearts set on Willie Cauley-Stein, what do we do if he goes before our pick, specifically to Magic at 5?!

Those guys love stacking up defensive, athletic players. Payton, Oladipo, Harkless, Gordon...etc. I have no doubt they will have strong interest in him, especially if Thibs ends up being their coach.

Some of the guys like Winslow, and move Rudy to pf, but I'm not sure.

I may want to trade the pick if its not WCS.

 

[John Galt]

The ProBasketballTalk mock has Mudiay dropping to us (Knicks taking Winslow, Magic taking WCS). You guys all in on Mudiay? Is he the real deal PG of the future? Or do you trade down/out in that case?

 

[Spike]

While most of us have our hearts set on Willie Cauley-Stein, what do we do if he goes before our pick, specifically to Magic at 5?!

Those guys love stacking up defensive, athletic players. Payton, Oladipo, Harkless, Gordon...etc. I have no doubt they will have strong interest in him, especially if Thibs ends up being their coach.

I'd seriously shop the pick. Hopefully a team wants to move up bad enough to nab whomever is left and is willing to part with a solid player in return. I'd have Plan B on the table prior to draft night.

 

[Chubbs]

Yes, we all know now that Vlade is the guy making the call on Draft Day. And why would he even say he was confident about Diviac drafting well unless he did have a gnawing doubt about the rookie drafting well?

Did vlade kick your dog once or something?

 

[jcwkings]

My priorities

1. Look for a trade to add veteran pieces

2. Select Mudiaye or Winslow if either drops.

3. Either pick WCS or look to trade down for him or Kaminsky.

 

[Kingster]

Excuse me, but I was talking about production, actual results, not pie in the sky that could be. JT averages 6 pt's a game, that's a fact, and he averages 5 shots a game, that is also a fact. You said that WCS would result negatively on our offense, and I rebutted by saying that WCS would have no problem equaling JT's numbers, and therefore wouldn't be a negative. This isn't about what someone could do, its about what someone did do. JT might be more offensively skilled, but it doesn't matter a tinkers damm if it doesn't add up to results. I'm not sure what your end game is. Everyone has talked for ages about wanting to improve our defense, and now, hopefully, we'll have a chance to draft the SEC defensive player of the year, who will be a better defensive player than JT the very moment he walks onto the court. Are we really going to argue over 6 pt's a game.

Personally I think WCS will have an easier time scoring in the NBA where players can't just live in the paint, and where the spacing is better. Willie's problems in posting up in college mostly came from not being able to recognize a double quickly enough. When going against just one defender, he was a much better post player. I seriously doubt he'll get doubled in the NBA. At least not at first. Your painting a picture of him as totally inept. Still raw? Yes, but not incapable. He's very good in the pick and roll with quick cuts to the basket. I've seen him standing at the foul line with the ball, and with one step toward the basket, dunk the ball. Your talking about a seven footer that has a 38 inch vertical. He might end up being the fastest player on the team.

i
TODAY JT is a much better offensive player than WCS. That's the point. The fact that JT only had 6 pts and 5 shots a game is not evidence that WCS is going to do better than that. Just the opposite. Another consideration: If Karl is playing Gay more at the 4 in lieu of JT, what does that portend for the minutes that WCS presumably takes from JT? And does that dynamic lend support to the idea that the Kings would draft WCS? I don't have answers to those questions, but my inclination at this time is that given those facts, WCS might not be as much on the FO's radar screen as some believe.

 

[Kingster]

Did vlade kick your dog once or something?

No, Vivek did.

 

[206Fan]

Mario and Kristaps were playing basketball from very early age and moved to Spain at the age of 15 to attend basketball academies, where they concentrated on improving their skills. As far as skill development goes both are very far on their developmental curve. They naturally become better players as their bodies mature, but I wouldn't expect massive expansion of their skillsets.

College teams OTOH actually do not concentrate on player development, so guys, who show significant improvements year to year, likely have excellent work ethic, since they have to work on their own a lot.

So here's an outrageous thought: WCS at 22 y.o. has more untapped potential skillwise than both euros at 20. For the same reason I don't think Hezonja is going to be a much better player than Ben in 5 years. Mario's biggest advantage over Ben would be his size/length.

Porzingis is maturing/getting stronger and you can see it in many things: his FT rate almost doubled from last season, and went from atrocious to just below average as he's able to be more physical; he fouls less as he deals with physicality better; defensive rebounding rate risen from bad to average as he holds position better. At the same his percentages from the field and passing effectiveness stayed the same. So when I posted those block/PF numbers I implied, that Porzingis is a good shot-blocker, but is pretty far from elite ones coming out of Europe recently. As for physicality and body type he's nowhere near ready to deal with strength and quickness of NBA players, and when he bulks up, Kristaps might lose a step like Bargnani, Valanciunas and Motiejunas did.

P.S. Like my highlight mix of WCS better : out of all dunks I left only those, where he has to take steps or a dribble after catching, or where he makes a play near his team's basket, and then is the first to arrive on the other end.

I disagree with this. WCS has spent 3 years at Kentucky and he still has 0 offense aside from putbacks and dunks. His potential and ceiling is very limited.

Hezonja already possesses much more skills than Ben right now...... The only strengths Ben has on offense is knock down 3s and drive at a straight line speed. Ben has very poor handles which leads him to not being a very aggressive attacker. Opposite of Heoznja.

If Porzingis can add strength to his frame, he'll be a better player than WCS.

I don't think WCS has much untapped potential left... He'll be a very good defensive player, but he'll never be a 3pt shooter like Porzingis, nor will he ever be a consistent 15ppg scorer.

 

[206Fan]

The ProBasketballTalk mock has Mudiay dropping to us (Knicks taking Winslow, Magic taking WCS). You guys all in on Mudiay? Is he the real deal PG of the future? Or do you trade down/out in that case?

I'm very sold on Mudiay. Of course his film is limited, but from what I watched, he looks like a great playmaker and good finisher around the rim. It reminded me of Tyreke but with better play making ability. He's also really athletic. He'd be our PG of the future along with Cuz and Gay. Collision would be a great back up PG for us. I can actually see Collison, Mudiay, Mclemore, Gay, and Cousins on the floor at the same time.