Boogie and the League's Other Pure Centers

**Bricklayer** · 12-09-2012, 11:00 PM

So, consensus, and I think accurate consensus, is that Boogie has gotten off to a rough start this season. Not at all up to his potential.

Now consider this:

2012-12 Top 6 Pure Centers* stats per 36:
Br. Lopez 22.4pts (.534 .638) 8.2reb 1.0ast 0.6stl 3.0blk 2.1TO 3.1Fl
DCousins 19.8pts (.424 .741) 12.0reb 2.5ast 1.7stl 0.8blk 3.1TO 3.8Fl
Jefferson 18.8pts (.484 .803) 11.5reb 2.1ast 1.2stl 1.2blk 1.6TO 2.9Fl
DHoward 18.7pts (.590 .477) 11.5reb 1.8ast 1.1stl 2.7blk 3.2TO 3.6Fl
GMonroe 16.8pts (.458 .703) 10.3pts 3.8ast 1.7stl 0.8blk 3.6TO 2.8Fl
MarGasol 15.6pts (.505 .908) 7.4reb 4.4ast 0.7stl 1.4blk 1.6TO 3.3Fl

*i.e. leaving off Garnett/Horford as PFs

**The_Jamal** · 12-09-2012, 11:16 PM

Why do you think p/36 holds value? Legitimately curious as I've seen you use it on multiple occasions when it's a fairly worthless stat in reality.

However, the point is still valid. I don't think anyone would say Boogie was playing fully up to his potential the past 3 games and he put up top 3 C numbers in the game.

**HereWeVivek** · 12-09-2012, 11:31 PM

Originally Posted by The_Jamal

Why do you think p/36 holds value?

i think it shows the players real production. especially in the case of DeMarcus where foul trouble and a stupid coach have severely hurt his Per Game averages

**andremiller07** · 12-09-2012, 11:45 PM

I really wish he could get that FG% up to roughly 45-47%, I don't mind it being below 50% since he has to create for himself more than any of those other big men mentioned. WIth Demarcus when hes at his best for that game I would take him over any big man but the problem is hes not at his best all the time and the difference between his best and worest is far greater than the other centres on the list.

Those stats tell us what we already know the dude can play but hes not consistant enough yet for my taste

**LWP777** · 12-10-2012, 12:05 AM

Originally Posted by Reke 13 Havoc

i think it shows the players real production. especially in the case of DeMarcus where foul trouble and a stupid coach have severely hurt his Per Game averages

But see that's just it. Foul trouble. One of his glaring weaknesses is that most of the time he's not able to keep himself on the floor as much as he should be because he commits too many fouls (and many of them totally unnecessary). The per/36 does not capture this flaw. It also doesn't capture the negative affect he has on the organization when he starts acting childish on and off the court.

I will, however, give him some credit. The past few games he seems to be more focused and is obviously trying to eliminate some of his bad habits. Who knew that all it would take would be an *** chewing from Grant Napier to get him motivated!

**HereWeVivek** · 12-10-2012, 12:48 AM

Originally Posted by LWP777

But see that's just it. Foul trouble. One of his glaring weaknesses is that most of the time he's not able to keep himself on the floor as much as he should be because he commits too many fouls (and many of them totally unnecessary).

but see, fixing his foul problem is very possible(getting him to stop reaching for steals in the back court would immediately help a lot)

meanwhile, giving other big men in the league the skills that DeMarcus possesses, not such an easy task

**The_Jamal** · 12-10-2012, 01:00 AM

Originally Posted by Reke 13 Havoc

i think it shows the players real production. especially in the case of DeMarcus where foul trouble and a stupid coach have severely hurt his Per Game averages

It shows the exact opposite of a player's real production. All p/36 does is extrapolate your current mpg averages over a 36 minute scale. P/36 is a purely hypothetical stat without any science or statistical backing behind the stat to make it worth anything. There are far too many variables that come into play that p/36 does not account for in the minutes it tries to account for.

For instance, if p/36 tells us that Jimmer would be a top 10 scorer in the NBA while maintaining staggering efficiency while doing so. All we would need to do is give him those 36 minutes and he'd be scoring 22 PPG on .610 TS%. I think we could all agree that Jimmer is not a top 10 offensive player.

**Bricklayer** · 12-10-2012, 01:23 AM

Originally Posted by The_Jamal

It shows the exact opposite of a player's real production. All p/36 does is extrapolate your current mpg averages over a 36 minute scale. P/36 is a purely hypothetical stat without any science or statistical backing behind the stat to make it worth anything. There are far too many variables that come into play that p/36 does not account for in the minutes it tries to account for.

For instance, if p/36 tells us that Jimmer would be a top 10 scorer in the NBA while maintaining staggering efficiency while doing so. All we would need to do is give him those 36 minutes and he'd be scoring 22 PPG on .610 TS%. I think we could all agree that Jimmer is not a top 10 offensive player.

Per/36 is the most accurate way to compare players who play similar minutes and roles. I.e. starters vs. starters or 6th men vs. 6th men. It cuts through the chafe of different coaching styles, one guy having better backups, or another guy playing on a team that always blows people out and so having his minutes limited by garabgetime. You turn on a game and watch 10 minutes of action with Player A vs. Player B, per36 will tell you who is likely to get the better of those minutes.

BTW, regarding fouls etc., you will note that DeMarcus's foul situation is only marginally worse than several of the other centers this season, and has dropped from 5.2 fouls/36 min his rookie season, to 4.7/per 36 last year, and now down to 3.8/per 36 this season, which is reaching down within a normal range -- Dwigth Howard for instance has been at 3.4, 3.6, 3.2, 2.8, 3.6 the last 5 years.

Also note the raw minutes gap between all 6 guys only ranges from 29.7min/gm (Lopez) to 36.2 (Gasol/Howard). Trying to discredit the numbers of 6 starting centers playing within 6 1/2 minutes of each other every game by attacking per36 is silly.

**mac** · 12-10-2012, 05:58 AM

Originally Posted by Bricklayer

Per/36 is the most accurate way to compare players who play similar minutes and roles. I.e. starters vs. starters or 6th men vs. 6th men. It cuts through the chafe of different coaching styles, one guy having better backups, or another guy playing on a team that always blows people out and so having his minutes limited by garabgetime. You turn on a game and watch 10 minutes of action with Player A vs. Player B, per36 will tell you who is likely to get the better of those minutes.

BTW, regarding fouls etc., you will note that DeMarcus's foul situation is only marginally worse than several of the other centers this season, and has dropped from 5.2 fouls/36 min his rookie season, to 4.7/per 36 last year, and now down to 3.8/per 36 this season, which is reaching down within a normal range -- Dwigth Howard for instance has been at 3.4, 3.6, 3.2, 2.8, 3.6 the last 5 years.

Also note the raw minutes gap between all 6 guys only ranges from 29.7min/gm (Lopez) to 36.2 (Gasol/Howard). Trying to discredit the numbers of 6 starting centers playing within 6 1/2 minutes of each other every game by attacking per36 is silly.

Fouls/game alone don't tell the whole story though. A guy picking up fouls 3 and 4 in the 4th quarter is going to play a lot more than one who picks up his 3rd in the 2nd. But because the range of 29.7 - 36.2 min/game is fairly close I think it's reasonable to use extrapolation.

**King Baller** · 12-10-2012, 06:11 AM

Cousins has been playing pretty well but has plenty of room to improve. The only thing holding Cousins back is himself. He must maintain his emotions to a tolerable level. He must learn the the Refs giveth and the Refs taketh away

He also needs to dunk more. In the words of our favorite play by play guy: "Throw it down Big Man!" LOL

I also think if the Kings would set up JT in the post and bring Cuz out to the top of the key OCCASIONALLY JT could take his man and score at a high percentage. Cousins is a good passer and this skill needs to be utilized more. This would also set Cousins up for his drive to the hoop.

KB

**Npliam** · 12-10-2012, 07:31 AM

If Cousins goes from 42% to 50% and shoots a a couple more free throws a game he will be a monster. As it is now, he is a potential monster that shows flashes of greatness and flashes of being a big 12 year old in a huge body.

The biggest difference between Boogie and say Al Jefferson (I am familiar with both) is that Al is usually Al every night. He shoots a decent percentage, doesn't have a ton of turnovers and can get his shot off whenever he wants. Boogie is great some night and pretty terrible other nights. It makes it hard to win games when he is terrible. It is hard for the Jazz to win games when Al is terrible it just doesn't happen as often.

**mac** · 12-10-2012, 07:34 AM

Originally Posted by Npliam

If Cousins goes from 42% to 50% and shoots a a couple more free throws a game he will be a monster. As it is now, he is a potential monster that shows flashes of greatness and flashes of being a big 12 year old in a huge body.

The biggest difference between Boogie and say Al Jefferson (I am familiar with both) is that Al is usually Al every night. He shoots a decent percentage, doesn't have a ton of turnovers and can get his shot off whenever he wants. Boogie is great some night and pretty terrible other nights. It makes it hard to win games when he is terrible. It is hard for the Jazz to win games when Al is terrible it just doesn't happen as often.

Yup. Would be good if Brick could include FGA and FTA as well.

**LWP777** · 12-10-2012, 10:09 AM

This is a good thread. While we can debate the merits of "per/36" all day long, there is no doubt that DMC has the talent to become one of the league's best centers, if not THE best center. He just needs to keep his head on straight and continue doing what he's done the past 3 games. It's easy when he's playing well and the team is winning. It's when he struggles and/or the team starts losing that he starts to unravel. Even though I have been highly critical of him on this forum, I am rooting for him to succeed.

**HereWeVivek** · 12-10-2012, 11:38 AM

Originally Posted by The_Jamal

For instance, if p/36 tells us that Jimmer would be a top 10 scorer in the NBA while maintaining staggering efficiency while doing so. All we would need to do is give him those 36 minutes and he'd be scoring 22 PPG on .610 TS%. I think we could all agree that Jimmer is not a top 10 offensive player.

well yea, obviously applying the p/36 to players that play 10mpg is going to not work. but using it for starting big men who all play a lot of minutes is at least comparable

**Npliam** · 12-10-2012, 11:44 AM

Originally Posted by Reke 13 Havoc

well yea, obviously applying the p/36 to players that play 10mpg is going to not work. but using it for starting big men who all play a lot of minutes is at least comparable

I think the kings should try it. Jimmer can score.

**ESP47** · 12-10-2012, 12:01 PM

You can either have good games, bad games, or neutral games where you don't help your team win or lose.

Cousins has mostly bad games with a lot of monster games in between.

A guy like Jefferson has mostly good games with a couple bad ones every now and then.

In the end their numbers can look similar on paper, but Jefferson helped his team win more because he plays well almost every night. It's great when Cousins can dominate a game but that's just one win and one night. If you are awful the next night, then you're no better than a player who played neutral two nights in a row.

If the team depends on you to win and you can only play well half the time, chances are you're going to be around a .500 team. In Cousins case it's lower than that because he doesn't play well half the time. Like I've been preaching here lately, check out his game logs and check out our wins. His success pretty much goes hand in hand with our wins.

**HereWeVivek** · 12-10-2012, 12:03 PM

Originally Posted by Npliam

I think the kings should try it. Jimmer can score.

oh god. you know who else can score? every person in the NBA who gets guarded by Jimmer

**twslam07** · 12-10-2012, 12:21 PM

Originally Posted by ESP47

You can either have good games, bad games, or neutral games where you don't help your team win or lose.

Cousins has mostly bad games with a lot of monster games in between.

A guy like Jefferson has mostly good games with a couple bad ones every now and then.

In the end their numbers can look similar on paper, but Jefferson helped his team win more because he plays well almost every night. It's great when Cousins can dominate a game but that's just one win and one night. If you are awful the next night, then you're no better than a player who played neutral two nights in a row.

If the team depends on you to win and you can only play well half the time, chances are you're going to be around a .500 team. In Cousins case it's lower than that because he doesn't play well half the time. Like I've been preaching here lately, check out his game logs and check out our wins. His success pretty much goes hand in hand with our wins.

This is a great point. I would love to see some sort of week by week comparison between Cousins and Jefferson over a season to see how steady Jefferson's production is compared to how erratic Cousins' production is.